Tariff pass-through

Purpose

Represent tariff risk as an asymmetric goods-price tail rather than burying it in a symmetric interval.

Mechanism

• Detect whether tariff risk is active for the target horizon.
• Apply a small central-case goods-price adjustment.
• Widen or skew the upper tail when pass-through uncertainty matters.

Checks

• The run names tariff pass-through as upside risk when active.
• The public trace distinguishes central adjustment from tail risk.
• The final distribution can move high without forcing the median equally high.

Inputs

• Tariff policy context
• Core-goods inflation history
• Agent-selected pass-through calibration

Limitations

• The current pack is a calibration scaffold, not a structural trade model.
• It does not estimate sector-specific tariff exposure yet.

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