CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA)

Population stdev of headline MoM over the last 24 months = 0.189pp. This is elevated by the recent oil-shock spike; a typical pre-shock month was ~0.1pp stdev. Using ~0.20-0.24pp as the 1-sigma scale, the 80% band (z=1.28) is roughly point +/- ~0.27pp.

Trailing-3 mean = +0.66%, but the sequence is monotonically decelerating (0.87 -> 0.64 -> 0.47). Linear extrapolation of the deceleration points to roughly +0.35-0.40% for June as the initial energy spike's monthly contribution fades while levels stay high.

Base rate (pre-shock 12-month run-rate, mid-2025): headline MoM clustered around +0.2-0.3%. The oil shock has lifted the conditional mean above that; June should sit between the shock-elevated recent prints and the calmer base, i.e. ~+0.3-0.5%.

Outside [0.1, 0.7] if: a renewed oil spike (escalation) or a large shelter/airfare jump pushes the print to +0.8%+; or, conversely, an abrupt energy pullback (ceasefire, falling gasoline) drops it toward +0.1% or below. Headline is the most energy-sensitive of the four CPI/labor cells, so its band is the widest.

Decelerating energy contribution + firm core floor + PPI pipeline pressure -> point +0.4%. 80% CI = +0.4 +/- ~0.27 -> [0.1, 0.7].

The control sees the recent headline CPI deceleration but treats energy risk as generic residual volatility rather than a structured component.

Energy and pipeline-price packs keep the center a touch above the aggregate control while the release pack prevents the interval from becoming too wide.

The resolver is the BLS first print for CPI-U all items, U.S. city average, seasonally adjusted percent change from May 2026 to June 2026, released in the CPI Summary and Table A.

Base-rate/reference-class: the last six published all-items monthly changes average about 0.47 percent and have a median of 0.4 percent, but that reference class includes an unusually large energy impulse in March through May.

Counter-consideration: if gasoline or energy prices remain as strong as in May, headline CPI could print above 0.5 percent even with core near 0.2 percent; if energy mean-reverts, headline could fall toward 0.2 percent.

Use the six-month headline median of 0.4 as the anchor; lean slightly below the 0.47 average because May core was 0.2 and food was 0.2, while keep a wide 80% interval of 0.1 to 0.8 to reflect energy volatility.

The resolver is the BLS first print for CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, seasonally adjusted percent change from May 2026 to June 2026. This is a data-release target, not a later revised time-series value.

Base-rate/reference-class: recent one-month headline CPI prints before the target were 0.2, 0.3, 0.9, 0.6, and 0.5. Their simple average is 0.5, but the median is also 0.5 and the latest core reading of 0.2 suggests headline pressure is being pulled up by volatile energy rather than a broad acceleration.

Counter-consideration: if the energy shock persists into June, gasoline and energy could keep headline CPI near the recent 0.5-0.6 pace or higher; if energy retraces or core softness dominates, the rounded print could fall toward 0.2-0.3.

Use a reference-class center near 0.5, shade down by 0.1 because May core CPI was 0.2 and some mean reversion is likely after March 0.9, April 0.6, and May 0.5. Set pointEstimate = 0.4. An 80% interval of 0.1 to 0.8 covers a soft core-led month through a renewed energy-led upside surprise and respects one-decimal BLS rounding.