Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US SNAP participation, July 2026
What will USDA FNS report as national SNAP participation (Persons) for July 2026 in the first published monthly table, in millions?
current forecast · 80% CI35.9M
34.7M35.9M37.1M
history:March 2024: 41.6MJuly 2025: 42MOctober 2025: 41.1MJanuary 2026: 38.5MFebruary 2026: 37.7MMarch 2026: 37.3M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-10T23:18:11Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 10, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.6-sol
- ledger fact
- usda.fns.snap.persons.july_2026
Key drivers
- long-run monthly participation decline
- statistically shrunk recent momentum
- slowing decline in March 2026
- first-print reporting and drift uncertainty
Resolution
- source
- USDA Food and Nutrition Service SNAP Data Tables
- expected
- December 7, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the Persons value for July 2026 in the first official FNS SNAP national monthly participation table published for that month. Convert the table value from thousands to millions by multiplying by 0.001 and round to three decimals; ignore all subsequent revisions. No release-day correction or grace exception applies.
- Data point
- usda.fns.snap.persons.july_2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.