Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US SNAP Participation, June 2026
What will USDA FNS first report for total persons participating in SNAP nationally in June 2026, unadjusted, in millions?
current forecast · 80% CI35.6M
34.7M35.6M36.4M
history:January 2026 official table value: 38.5MFebruary 2026 official table value: 37.7MMarch 2026 latest official table value: 37.3MJune 2025 official table value: 42.1M
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-10T17:52:58Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 10, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.6-sol
- ledger fact
- usda.fns.snap.persons.june_2026
Key drivers
- Strong FY2026 participation downtrend
- Recent monthly decline beginning to moderate
- Tighter eligibility and work-requirement environment
- Administrative reporting volatility
Resolution
- source
- USDA Food and Nutrition Service SNAP Data Tables
- expected
- November 3, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first value published for Persons for June 2026 in the USDA FNS SNAP national monthly participation table, reported in thousands and multiplied by 0.001 to millions. Use the first print available on the specified SNAP Data Tables page; disregard later revisions. Round the resolved value to three decimal places in millions.
- Data point
- usda.fns.snap.persons.june_2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.