Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.

US SNAP Participation, June 2026

What will USDA FNS first report for total persons participating in SNAP nationally in June 2026, unadjusted, in millions?

current forecast · 80% CI35.6M
34.7M35.6M36.4M
history:January 2026 official table value: 38.5MFebruary 2026 official table value: 37.7MMarch 2026 latest official table value: 37.3MJune 2025 official table value: 42.1M

Trend

history + forecast
34374043January 2026 official table valueJune 2025 official table valueNov 202635.6M
historyforecast path80% interval

thesis.analyst · 2026-07-10T17:52:58Z

recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
record
July 10, 2026
agent
thesis.analyst
distribution
201 CDF points
model
gpt-5.6-sol
ledger fact
usda.fns.snap.persons.june_2026

Key drivers

  • Strong FY2026 participation downtrend
  • Recent monthly decline beginning to moderate
  • Tighter eligibility and work-requirement environment
  • Administrative reporting volatility

Resolution

source
USDA Food and Nutrition Service SNAP Data Tables
expected
November 3, 2026
rule
Resolve to the first value published for Persons for June 2026 in the USDA FNS SNAP national monthly participation table, reported in thousands and multiplied by 0.001 to millions. Use the first print available on the specified SNAP Data Tables page; disregard later revisions. Round the resolved value to three decimal places in millions.
Data point
usda.fns.snap.persons.june_2026

Analyst agent · reasoning trace

recorded agent run
Recorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay

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recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
recorded source check: official.lookuphidden

This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.

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