thesisPrototype

Government data

SNAP participation, May 2026

USDA FNS SNAP national monthly participation, Persons, May 2026, not seasonally adjusted, first print, converted from the FNS table's thousands of persons to millions of persons.

Overdue · was due Sep 30, 2026

The resolver has no route for this target's reference. The target was registered with a generic source link rather than a resolver binding.

registration: series fns.snap.total_persons

NO_ROUTE_GENERIC_URL · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

41.9M
41.2M–42.6M
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%40.1M41.9M43.7MForecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (41.2M–42.6M). Dashed line: point estimate (41.9M).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§Forecast for USDA FNS SNAP Persons, May 2026

Framing and exact resolver: this target is the USDA Food and Nutrition Service national SNAP monthly participation table, Persons, not seasonally adjusted. The FNS file reports persons in thousands, and this cell reports millions using the ledger transform factor 0.001.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked USDA FNS SNAP Data Tables page for the current official monthly SNAP participation table and latest available period.
↳ FNS page identifies the national monthly Persons, Households, Benefits table and shows Latest Available Month: November 2025; extracted recent national Persons values were September 2025 = 42.239 million, October 2025 = 42.284 million, and November 2025 = 42.311 million after converting thousands to millions.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked USDA FNS release calendar for the first-print timing of the May 2026 SNAP monthly participation table.
↳ The official release schedule places the May 2026 SNAP monthly data release on 2026-09-30, inside the registered expected window 2026-09-26 to 2026-10-04; the page also listed monthly SNAP releases with a 2026 schedule year.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Pulled same-series FNS national Persons history for recent May reference points and near-current months.
↳ Same variant and unit after conversion: May 2023 = 42.083 million, May 2024 = 41.730 million, May 2025 = 42.190 million, September 2025 = 42.239 million, October 2025 = 42.284 million, November 2025 = 42.311 million.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Reviewed public federal SNAP policy context for 2026 eligibility and administrative changes.
↳ Public legislation context indicates SNAP work-rule eligibility changes involving adults through age 64 and a 2026 implementation horizon; because the source does not directly translate those provisions into a May 2026 persons count, I use only a modest judgmental participation adjustment, not the draft's larger -0.650 million adjustment.

Same-variant check: every anchor is the USDA FNS national monthly SNAP Persons series, not fiscal-year quality-control data, not households, not benefits, and not a seasonally adjusted or smoothed variant.

Base rate/reference class: the recent official-source base rate is a high-level, slow-moving national caseload around 41.7 to 42.3 million persons, with May-to-May moves of -0.353 million from 2023 to 2024 and +0.460 million from 2024 to 2025 rather than a clear trend.

Level, momentum, and mechanism: level starts from the latest FNS November 2025 value of 42.311 million. Momentum is near flat, because September to November 2025 rose only 0.072 million. The inside-view update is a modest negative policy/administrative effect in early 2026, partially offset by normal churn and any weaker labor-market conditions.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior = latest official November 2025 Persons, 42.311 million; historical sample = recent FNS May-to-May movements from the same national monthly Persons series, May 2023 to May 2024 = -0.353 million and May 2024 to May 2025 = +0.460 million; adjustment components = -0.04 million seasonal Nov-to-May base drift and -0.35 million for 2026 eligibility/administrative tightening, so point = 42.311 - 0.04 - 0.35 = 41.921 million, rounded to 41.92. Interval method = realized dispersion of comparable annual May movements; sigma = 0.41 million by RMS of the two May-to-May moves, so 1.28*sigma = 0.52 million. I widen to 0.72 million, 1.38x the mechanical half-width, for policy timing uncertainty, giving 41.92 - 0.72 = 41.20 and 41.92 + 0.72 = 42.64.

Counter-considerations: downside risk for SNAP participation is that eligibility changes bite faster than assumed or states accelerate removals, which would land below the interval near or under 41.20 million. Upside risk for SNAP participation is that policy effects are delayed, litigation or implementation frictions slow terminations, or the labor market weakens; that would land above the interval near or above 42.64 million. Outside the interval would require either a broad administrative drop exceeding roughly 1.1 million from November or renewed caseload growth despite expected policy tightening.

Review disposition: accepted the critique that the draft's -0.65 million policy adjustment was under-supported, so I reduced it to -0.35 million and described it as judgmental; accepted the interval critique by naming the May-to-May movements used for sigma; accepted the tail critique by rewriting risks in target-outcome terms.

Key drivers

  • Recent FNS national participation is near 42.3 million persons
  • May seasonal movement from the prior November is usually modest
  • 2026 eligibility and administrative-policy tightening is treated as a modest downside adjustment rather than a large quantified shock
  • Labor-market deterioration or delayed policy implementation would keep participation closer to the recent level

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
USDA Food and Nutrition Service SNAP Data Tables
Resolution date
September 30, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first official USDA FNS SNAP data-table print for national monthly participation, table Persons, May 2026. Use the reported national Persons value in thousands and multiply by 0.001 to express millions. Do not use later revisions or same-day corrected files unless the first print itself is withdrawn before publication as an official file.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · v2.2.0

pre-submit review · completed

The forecast is mostly tied to the correct SNAP May 2026 first-print target, but the large policy-driven downward adjustment and interval need better evidentiary support and clearer tail wording before publication.

  • blocking update: The -0.65 million policy/administrative tightening adjustment is material but is not supported by a cited policy source or quantified bridge from current evidence.
  • warning interval: The interval cites realized dispersion and sigma = 0.52 million, but the actual historical sample, dates, and calculation are not shown.
  • warning tails: Tail labels are directionally confusing: faster eligibility removals are called upside risk even though they lower participation, while delayed effects are described as downside risk to a low-participation forecast.
  • info optional_suggestion: State explicitly that the resolution date is the scheduled first-print release date, 2026-09-30, and that this remains within the ledger release window.
  • info optional_suggestion: List one or two actual Nov-to-May historical movements if those are central to the persistence prior.
  • info optional_suggestion: Keep the final JSON unchanged only after the reasoning supports the same point and interval.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the critique that the draft's -0.65 million policy adjustment was under-supported, so I reduced it to -0.35 million and described it as judgmental; accepted the interval critique by naming the May-to-May movements used for sigma; accepted the tail critique by rewriting risks in target-outcome terms.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the critique that the draft's -0.65 million policy adjustment was under-supported, so I reduced it to -0.35 million and described it as judgmental; accepted the interval critique by naming the May-to-May movements used for sigma; accepted the tail critique by rewriting risks in target-outcome terms.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the critique that the draft's -0.65 million policy adjustment was under-supported, so I reduced it to -0.35 million and described it as judgmental; accepted the interval critique by naming the May-to-May movements used for sigma; accepted the tail critique by rewriting risks in target-outcome terms.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the critique that the draft's -0.65 million policy adjustment was under-supported, so I reduced it to -0.35 million and described it as judgmental; accepted the interval critique by naming the May-to-May movements used for sigma; accepted the tail critique by rewriting risks in target-outcome terms.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the critique that the draft's -0.65 million policy adjustment was under-supported, so I reduced it to -0.35 million and described it as judgmental; accepted the interval critique by naming the May-to-May movements used for sigma; accepted the tail critique by rewriting risks in target-outcome terms.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the critique that the draft's -0.65 million policy adjustment was under-supported, so I reduced it to -0.35 million and described it as judgmental; accepted the interval critique by naming the May-to-May movements used for sigma; accepted the tail critique by rewriting risks in target-outcome terms.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§Forecast for USDA FNS SNAP Persons, May 2026

Framing and exact resolver: this target is the USDA Food and Nutrition Service national SNAP monthly participation table, Persons, not seasonally adjusted. The FNS file reports persons in thousands, and this cell reports millions using the ledger transform factor 0.001.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked USDA FNS SNAP Data Tables page for the current official monthly SNAP participation table and latest available period.
↳ FNS page identifies the national monthly Persons, Households, Benefits table and shows Latest Available Month: November 2025; extracted recent national Persons values were September 2025 = 42.239 million, October 2025 = 42.284 million, and November 2025 = 42.311 million after converting thousands to millions.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked USDA FNS release calendar for the first-print timing of the May 2026 SNAP monthly participation table.
↳ The official release schedule places the May 2026 SNAP monthly data release on 2026-09-30, inside the registered expected window 2026-09-26 to 2026-10-04; the page also listed monthly SNAP releases with a 2026 schedule year.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Pulled same-series FNS national Persons history for recent May reference points and near-current months.
↳ Same variant and unit after conversion: May 2023 = 42.083 million, May 2024 = 41.730 million, May 2025 = 42.190 million, September 2025 = 42.239 million, October 2025 = 42.284 million, November 2025 = 42.311 million.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Reviewed public federal SNAP policy context for 2026 eligibility and administrative changes.
↳ Public legislation context indicates SNAP work-rule eligibility changes involving adults through age 64 and a 2026 implementation horizon; because the source does not directly translate those provisions into a May 2026 persons count, I use only a modest judgmental participation adjustment, not the draft's larger -0.650 million adjustment.

Same-variant check: every anchor is the USDA FNS national monthly SNAP Persons series, not fiscal-year quality-control data, not households, not benefits, and not a seasonally adjusted or smoothed variant.

Base rate/reference class: the recent official-source base rate is a high-level, slow-moving national caseload around 41.7 to 42.3 million persons, with May-to-May moves of -0.353 million from 2023 to 2024 and +0.460 million from 2024 to 2025 rather than a clear trend.

Level, momentum, and mechanism: level starts from the latest FNS November 2025 value of 42.311 million. Momentum is near flat, because September to November 2025 rose only 0.072 million. The inside-view update is a modest negative policy/administrative effect in early 2026, partially offset by normal churn and any weaker labor-market conditions.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior = latest official November 2025 Persons, 42.311 million; historical sample = recent FNS May-to-May movements from the same national monthly Persons series, May 2023 to May 2024 = -0.353 million and May 2024 to May 2025 = +0.460 million; adjustment components = -0.04 million seasonal Nov-to-May base drift and -0.35 million for 2026 eligibility/administrative tightening, so point = 42.311 - 0.04 - 0.35 = 41.921 million, rounded to 41.92. Interval method = realized dispersion of comparable annual May movements; sigma = 0.41 million by RMS of the two May-to-May moves, so 1.28*sigma = 0.52 million. I widen to 0.72 million, 1.38x the mechanical half-width, for policy timing uncertainty, giving 41.92 - 0.72 = 41.20 and 41.92 + 0.72 = 42.64.

Counter-considerations: downside risk for SNAP participation is that eligibility changes bite faster than assumed or states accelerate removals, which would land below the interval near or under 41.20 million. Upside risk for SNAP participation is that policy effects are delayed, litigation or implementation frictions slow terminations, or the labor market weakens; that would land above the interval near or above 42.64 million. Outside the interval would require either a broad administrative drop exceeding roughly 1.1 million from November or renewed caseload growth despite expected policy tightening.

Review disposition: accepted the critique that the draft's -0.65 million policy adjustment was under-supported, so I reduced it to -0.35 million and described it as judgmental; accepted the interval critique by naming the May-to-May movements used for sigma; accepted the tail critique by rewriting risks in target-outcome terms.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
41.9M[41.2M · 42.6M]
Target metadata

Data point: usda.fns.snap.persons.may_2026

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