thesisPrototype

Government data

SSI recipients, September 2026

Social Security Administration SSI Monthly Statistics Table 2, total number of recipients for all federally administered payments, September 2026, first print, converted to millions.

Forecast

7.3M
7.3M–7.4M
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗
7.37.37.47.52025-072026-07Nov 20267.3M
historyforecast path80% interval
Probability distribution

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%7.2M7.3M7.4MForecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (7.3M–7.4M). Dashed line: point estimate (7.3M).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§SSI total recipients September 2026

Exact resolver: SSA SSI Monthly Statistics Table 2, All Federally Administered Payments, Total number of recipients, September 2026 first print. The variant is unadjusted end-of-month recipients from the Supplemental Security Record, 100 percent data; all anchors below use the same Table 2 Total recipient variant.

Ledger alignment: the registered sourceBinding.sourceUrl is the official July 2026 SSA Table 2 URL, while the dataPointId and period are September 2026. I keep the forecast tied to that registered target and use the July URL as the registered source binding and latest official table-family anchor; resolution should read the September 2026 first print from the same SSA SSI Monthly Statistics Table 2 structure when available.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched SSA SSI Monthly Statistics, July 2026, Table 2 at the official ssa.gov table URL.
↳ Latest official Table 2 Total recipient prints fetched: 2026-02 7,358,913; 2026-03 7,351,825; 2026-04 7,338,132; 2026-05 7,322,937; 2026-06 7,323,731; 2026-07 7,300,297.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched older official SSA September Table 2 pages for same-month and July-to-September reference class history.
↳ Official September Table 2 totals fetched: 2022-09 7,567,439; 2023-09 7,450,135; 2024-09 7,430,106; 2025-09 7,436,689. July-to-September changes were -22,869 in 2022, -24,600 in 2023, +20,432 in 2024, and +41,812 in 2025 recipients.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked SSA Publishing Schedule and the July 2026 SSI Monthly Statistics index for release-basis context.
↳ SSA Publishing Schedule fetched SSI Monthly Statistics as Monthly; the July 2026 SSI Monthly Statistics index says released August 2026, and its Table 2 July total is 7,300,297. The fetched schedule text did not expose a specific September 2026 release day, so I use the registered expectedReleaseWindow end 2026-11-08 as the resolutionDate bound.

Base rate/reference class: the recent 13-print official Table 2 sample runs from 7.394877 million in 2025-07 to 7.300297 million in 2026-07, with average one-month change -0.007882 million. The four July-to-September same-variant moves average +0.003694 million but split between negative 2022-2023 and positive 2024-2025, so I avoid a strong seasonal lift.

Prior/update/interval: Persistence prior starts from the latest same-variant SSA level, 7.300297 million in 2026-07. Historical sample is the 12 successive monthly changes in the 2025-07 through 2026-07 official Table 2 totals: mean change -0.007882 million and monthly sigma = 0.018722 million. Adjustment components: level +7.300297; momentum for two months -0.010 million, lighter than the raw recent average because September seasonality can reverse declines; seasonal/policy-mechanism add +0.036 million based on the 2024-2025 September lift and no major known eligibility-policy discontinuity. Point = 7.300297 - 0.010 + 0.036 = 7.326 million. For the two-month horizon, scaled sigma = 0.018722*sqrt(2) = 0.026477, so 1.28*sigma = 0.033891; rounded 80% bounds are 7.326 +/- 0.034 = 7.292 to 7.360 million.

Counter-considerations: upside risk is another September processing jump like 2025, which would land above the interval if August and September together add more than about 60,000 recipients from July. Downside risk is continued administrative attrition like early 2026 plus weak new awards, which would land below the interval if the September value is more than about 8,000 recipients below July. Outside the interval would require either a clear seasonal surge beyond the recent sample or another July-like monthly drop.

Review disposition: accepted the blocking source-binding critique by aligning resolutionSourceUrl and resolver text with the registered July 2026 SSA Table 2 sourceBinding while explicitly noting the September-period target; accepted the transform critique by clarifying that the registered 0.001 factor applies to a thousands-extracted field and is equivalent to dividing visible whole recipients by 1,000,000 for millions; kept the sigma-based interval arithmetic.

Key drivers

  • July 2026 level fell to 7.300297 million
  • Recent monthly momentum is negative but not one-way
  • September has shown mixed but recently positive seasonal movement
  • No known 2026 SSI policy cliff large enough to dominate recipient counts
  • First-print SSA Table 2 recipient value transformed to millions

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
Social Security Administration SSI Monthly Statistics
Resolution date
November 8, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first published September 2026 value in SSA SSI Monthly Statistics Table 2, row September 2026, column Total number of recipients for all federally administered payments. The registered sourceBinding URL is the July 2026 Table 2 page for the same SSA table family; the target dataPointId and period are September 2026, so the resolving observation is the September 2026 first print when posted under the same official SSA SSI Monthly Statistics Table 2 structure. Apply the registered transform consistently by treating the extracted source field as recipients in thousands and multiplying by 0.001 to report millions; equivalently, if auditing from the visible whole-recipient table value, divide by 1,000,000 and report to three decimals. Ignore later revisions after the first September 2026 table is posted. The registered expected release window ends 2026-11-08; SSA's Publishing Schedule was checked this run and lists SSI Monthly Statistics as a monthly publication but did not expose a more specific September 2026 release day in the fetched text.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.5.11

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is broadly publishable but has a blocking resolver/source mismatch against the registered ledger contract.

  • blocking resolver: The draft sets resolutionSourceUrl to the predicted September 2026 table URL, but the ledger sourceBinding sourceUrl is the registered SSA July 2026 Table 2 URL and the target is bounded by expectedReleaseWindow ending 2026-11-08.
  • warning resolver: The resolutionRule says convert whole-recipient first print to millions by dividing by 1,000,000, while the registered sourceBinding transform is multiply by 0.001.
  • info optional_suggestion: The prior/update/interval step is strong; keep the explicit sigma and 80% bound arithmetic.
  • info optional_suggestion: The downside tail threshold could be restated relative to the final interval lower bound to make the tail math easier to audit.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the blocking source-binding critique by aligning resolutionSourceUrl and resolver text with the registered July 2026 SSA Table 2 sourceBinding while explicitly noting the September-period target; accepted the transform critique by clarifying that the registered 0.001 factor applies to a thousands-extracted field and is equivalent to dividing visible whole recipients by 1,000,000 for millions; kept the sigma-based interval arithmetic.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the blocking source-binding critique by aligning resolutionSourceUrl and resolver text with the registered July 2026 SSA Table 2 sourceBinding while explicitly noting the September-period target; accepted the transform critique by clarifying that the registered 0.001 factor applies to a thousands-extracted field and is equivalent to dividing visible whole recipients by 1,000,000 for millions; kept the sigma-based interval arithmetic.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the blocking source-binding critique by aligning resolutionSourceUrl and resolver text with the registered July 2026 SSA Table 2 sourceBinding while explicitly noting the September-period target; accepted the transform critique by clarifying that the registered 0.001 factor applies to a thousands-extracted field and is equivalent to dividing visible whole recipients by 1,000,000 for millions; kept the sigma-based interval arithmetic.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the blocking source-binding critique by aligning resolutionSourceUrl and resolver text with the registered July 2026 SSA Table 2 sourceBinding while explicitly noting the September-period target; accepted the transform critique by clarifying that the registered 0.001 factor applies to a thousands-extracted field and is equivalent to dividing visible whole recipients by 1,000,000 for millions; kept the sigma-based interval arithmetic.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§SSI total recipients September 2026

Exact resolver: SSA SSI Monthly Statistics Table 2, All Federally Administered Payments, Total number of recipients, September 2026 first print. The variant is unadjusted end-of-month recipients from the Supplemental Security Record, 100 percent data; all anchors below use the same Table 2 Total recipient variant.

Ledger alignment: the registered sourceBinding.sourceUrl is the official July 2026 SSA Table 2 URL, while the dataPointId and period are September 2026. I keep the forecast tied to that registered target and use the July URL as the registered source binding and latest official table-family anchor; resolution should read the September 2026 first print from the same SSA SSI Monthly Statistics Table 2 structure when available.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched SSA SSI Monthly Statistics, July 2026, Table 2 at the official ssa.gov table URL.
↳ Latest official Table 2 Total recipient prints fetched: 2026-02 7,358,913; 2026-03 7,351,825; 2026-04 7,338,132; 2026-05 7,322,937; 2026-06 7,323,731; 2026-07 7,300,297.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched older official SSA September Table 2 pages for same-month and July-to-September reference class history.
↳ Official September Table 2 totals fetched: 2022-09 7,567,439; 2023-09 7,450,135; 2024-09 7,430,106; 2025-09 7,436,689. July-to-September changes were -22,869 in 2022, -24,600 in 2023, +20,432 in 2024, and +41,812 in 2025 recipients.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked SSA Publishing Schedule and the July 2026 SSI Monthly Statistics index for release-basis context.
↳ SSA Publishing Schedule fetched SSI Monthly Statistics as Monthly; the July 2026 SSI Monthly Statistics index says released August 2026, and its Table 2 July total is 7,300,297. The fetched schedule text did not expose a specific September 2026 release day, so I use the registered expectedReleaseWindow end 2026-11-08 as the resolutionDate bound.

Base rate/reference class: the recent 13-print official Table 2 sample runs from 7.394877 million in 2025-07 to 7.300297 million in 2026-07, with average one-month change -0.007882 million. The four July-to-September same-variant moves average +0.003694 million but split between negative 2022-2023 and positive 2024-2025, so I avoid a strong seasonal lift.

Prior/update/interval: Persistence prior starts from the latest same-variant SSA level, 7.300297 million in 2026-07. Historical sample is the 12 successive monthly changes in the 2025-07 through 2026-07 official Table 2 totals: mean change -0.007882 million and monthly sigma = 0.018722 million. Adjustment components: level +7.300297; momentum for two months -0.010 million, lighter than the raw recent average because September seasonality can reverse declines; seasonal/policy-mechanism add +0.036 million based on the 2024-2025 September lift and no major known eligibility-policy discontinuity. Point = 7.300297 - 0.010 + 0.036 = 7.326 million. For the two-month horizon, scaled sigma = 0.018722*sqrt(2) = 0.026477, so 1.28*sigma = 0.033891; rounded 80% bounds are 7.326 +/- 0.034 = 7.292 to 7.360 million.

Counter-considerations: upside risk is another September processing jump like 2025, which would land above the interval if August and September together add more than about 60,000 recipients from July. Downside risk is continued administrative attrition like early 2026 plus weak new awards, which would land below the interval if the September value is more than about 8,000 recipients below July. Outside the interval would require either a clear seasonal surge beyond the recent sample or another July-like monthly drop.

Review disposition: accepted the blocking source-binding critique by aligning resolutionSourceUrl and resolver text with the registered July 2026 SSA Table 2 sourceBinding while explicitly noting the September-period target; accepted the transform critique by clarifying that the registered 0.001 factor applies to a thousands-extracted field and is equivalent to dividing visible whole recipients by 1,000,000 for millions; kept the sigma-based interval arithmetic.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
7.3M[7.3M · 7.4M]
Target metadata

Data point: ssa.ssi.total_recipients.2026-09.first_print

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