thesisPrototype

Government data

UK PPI Input Prices Annual Rate, August 2026

What will the Office for National Statistics first report for the UK Producer Price Inflation total input producer prices 12-month percentage change, All materials and fuels purchased (GHIP), for August 2026?

Overdue · was due Sep 16, 2026

The resolver has no route for this target's reference. The target was registered with a generic source link rather than a resolver binding.

NO_ROUTE_GENERIC_URL · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

+5.1%
+0.6%–+9.6%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗
-1.82.56.911.2August 2025July 2026Sep 2026+5.1%
historyforecast path80% interval
Probability distribution

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%-6.2%+5.1%+16.4%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (+0.6%–+9.6%). Dashed line: point estimate (+5.1%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§UK PPI Input Prices Annual Rate, August 2026

Framing and resolver: the target is the ONS first print for the August 2026 total input producer prices 12-month percentage change, All materials and fuels purchased, series/table GHIP, in percent_growth. The registered August 2026 release page says this not-yet-published time series release is scheduled for 16 September 2026 at 7:00am, so I keep the ledger resolutionDate and first-print-only rule.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Open ONS August 2026 PPI time series release placeholder
↳ Fetched ONS release page for Producer price inflation, UK: August 2026 time series: release date 16 September 2026 7:00am; page status says not yet published; registered target field remains GHIP August 2026 first print.

Base rate / reference class: for the same GHIP annual-rate variant, the latest 12 official monthly annual rates average 3.275 percentage points, but that mixes a low-inflation period through February with a March-May jump and a June-July unwind. A persistence base rate from the July 2026 annual rate of 4.9% is more targeted for a one-month-ahead first print, while the 12-month sample controls the interval width.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read ONS Producer price inflation, UK: July 2026 Table 1 for GHIP annual rates
↳ Fetched GHIP annual inflation rates from ONS Table 1: August 2025 0.3, September 2025 0.9, October 2025 0.9, November 2025 1.1, December 2025 0.5, January 2026 -0.2, February 2026 0.7, March 2026 5.5, April 2026 8.1, May 2026 9.2, June 2026 7.4, July 2026 4.9 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read ONS Producer price inflation, UK: July 2026 Table 1 for GHIP index and monthly-rate mechanics
↳ Fetched GHIP index and monthly rates: July 2025 index 156.7 with monthly rate 0.6 and annual rate -0.1; August 2025 index 156.8 with monthly rate 0.0 and annual rate 0.3; June 2026 index 167.3 with monthly rate -1.9 and annual rate 7.4; July 2026 index 164.5 with monthly rate -1.7 and annual rate 4.9.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read ONS July 2026 input-price component discussion for current-release drivers
↳ Fetched component drivers from ONS July 2026 release: crude oil input prices fell 18.0% on the month and were up 10.6% on the year; metals and non-metallic mineral products were up 8.4% on the year; chemicals were up 6.1%; domestic food was down 1.6%; imported food was up 1.0%.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior = July 2026 GHIP annual rate 4.9%; historical sample = August 2025 through July 2026 annual rates [0.3, 0.9, 0.9, 1.1, 0.5, -0.2, 0.7, 5.5, 8.1, 9.2, 7.4, 4.9]; adjustment components = +0.2 percentage point because July's index 164.5 over the August 2025 base index 156.8 mechanically gives 4.9% if August is flat, while non-oil inputs still show positive annual pressure despite negative recent crude-oil momentum. Interval method = sample dispersion of recent annual-rate values, sigma = 3.49 percentage points, and 80% half-width = 1.28*sigma = 1.28*3.49 = 4.47 percentage points. Point = 4.9 + 0.2 = 5.1; interval = 5.1 +/- 4.5 = [0.6, 9.6] after one-decimal rounding.

Counter-considerations: downside risk outside the interval would require another large August fall in crude oil or imported input prices plus weaker metals and chemicals, pushing the annual rate below 0.6%. Upside risk outside the interval would require a renewed energy or precious-metals shock that lifts August input prices sharply enough to land above 9.6%. The central case is a near-flat to modestly positive August index after two sharp monthly declines.

Review disposition: accepted the reviewer suggestion to place the base-rate/reference-class step before the current-evidence tool evidence; no required fixes were raised, and the resolver, unit, source grounding, interval arithmetic, and forecast numbers are unchanged.

Key drivers

  • July GHIP annual rate fell to 4.9% after 7.4% in June
  • July GHIP index of 164.5 against August 2025 index of 156.8 implies about 4.9% year-over-year if August 2026 is flat on the month
  • Recent monthly input PPI momentum was negative at -1.9% in June and -1.7% in July
  • Crude oil drove the July decline with an 18.0% monthly fall but other input groups remained mostly positive on an annual basis
  • Metals and chemicals still supported the annual rate at 8.4% and 6.1% in July

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
Office for National Statistics Producer price inflation, UK: August 2026 time series
Resolution date
September 16, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first value published by ONS for August 2026 in Producer price inflation, UK: August 2026 time series for Total input producer prices, 12-month percentage change, All materials and fuels purchased (GHIP), in percent_growth and rounded as printed by ONS, normally one decimal place. Use the first official print only and ignore later revisions, corrections, and superseded versions.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.5.11

pre-submit review · completed

The draft is publishable: resolver fields match the ledger target, the first-print rule and unit are clear, and the prior/update/interval logic is coherent.

  • info optional_suggestion: Consider making the base-rate sentence appear before the current-evidence bullets in the final trace, even though the compact math step already separates prior and update clearly.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the reviewer suggestion to place the base-rate/reference-class step before the current-evidence tool evidence; no required fixes were raised, and the resolver, unit, source grounding, interval arithmetic, and forecast numbers are unchanged.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§UK PPI Input Prices Annual Rate, August 2026

Framing and resolver: the target is the ONS first print for the August 2026 total input producer prices 12-month percentage change, All materials and fuels purchased, series/table GHIP, in percent_growth. The registered August 2026 release page says this not-yet-published time series release is scheduled for 16 September 2026 at 7:00am, so I keep the ledger resolutionDate and first-print-only rule.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Open ONS August 2026 PPI time series release placeholder
↳ Fetched ONS release page for Producer price inflation, UK: August 2026 time series: release date 16 September 2026 7:00am; page status says not yet published; registered target field remains GHIP August 2026 first print.

Base rate / reference class: for the same GHIP annual-rate variant, the latest 12 official monthly annual rates average 3.275 percentage points, but that mixes a low-inflation period through February with a March-May jump and a June-July unwind. A persistence base rate from the July 2026 annual rate of 4.9% is more targeted for a one-month-ahead first print, while the 12-month sample controls the interval width.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read ONS Producer price inflation, UK: July 2026 Table 1 for GHIP annual rates
↳ Fetched GHIP annual inflation rates from ONS Table 1: August 2025 0.3, September 2025 0.9, October 2025 0.9, November 2025 1.1, December 2025 0.5, January 2026 -0.2, February 2026 0.7, March 2026 5.5, April 2026 8.1, May 2026 9.2, June 2026 7.4, July 2026 4.9 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read ONS Producer price inflation, UK: July 2026 Table 1 for GHIP index and monthly-rate mechanics
↳ Fetched GHIP index and monthly rates: July 2025 index 156.7 with monthly rate 0.6 and annual rate -0.1; August 2025 index 156.8 with monthly rate 0.0 and annual rate 0.3; June 2026 index 167.3 with monthly rate -1.9 and annual rate 7.4; July 2026 index 164.5 with monthly rate -1.7 and annual rate 4.9.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read ONS July 2026 input-price component discussion for current-release drivers
↳ Fetched component drivers from ONS July 2026 release: crude oil input prices fell 18.0% on the month and were up 10.6% on the year; metals and non-metallic mineral products were up 8.4% on the year; chemicals were up 6.1%; domestic food was down 1.6%; imported food was up 1.0%.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior = July 2026 GHIP annual rate 4.9%; historical sample = August 2025 through July 2026 annual rates [0.3, 0.9, 0.9, 1.1, 0.5, -0.2, 0.7, 5.5, 8.1, 9.2, 7.4, 4.9]; adjustment components = +0.2 percentage point because July's index 164.5 over the August 2025 base index 156.8 mechanically gives 4.9% if August is flat, while non-oil inputs still show positive annual pressure despite negative recent crude-oil momentum. Interval method = sample dispersion of recent annual-rate values, sigma = 3.49 percentage points, and 80% half-width = 1.28*sigma = 1.28*3.49 = 4.47 percentage points. Point = 4.9 + 0.2 = 5.1; interval = 5.1 +/- 4.5 = [0.6, 9.6] after one-decimal rounding.

Counter-considerations: downside risk outside the interval would require another large August fall in crude oil or imported input prices plus weaker metals and chemicals, pushing the annual rate below 0.6%. Upside risk outside the interval would require a renewed energy or precious-metals shock that lifts August input prices sharply enough to land above 9.6%. The central case is a near-flat to modestly positive August index after two sharp monthly declines.

Review disposition: accepted the reviewer suggestion to place the base-rate/reference-class step before the current-evidence tool evidence; no required fixes were raised, and the resolver, unit, source grounding, interval arithmetic, and forecast numbers are unchanged.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
+5.1%[+0.6% · +9.6%]
Target metadata

Data point: ons.ppi.input_prices_yoy.2026_08.first_print

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