§UK GD6Y July 2026 first-print forecast
Framing and exact resolver: this forecast targets ONS series GD6Y, PPI INDEX OUTPUT TOTAL - C Manufactured products, excluding Duty 2015=100, for 2026 JUL, in index_points. The resolving variant is the ONS first-print monthly time-series value from the Producer price inflation UK July 2026 time series release; all anchors below use the same GD6Y manufactured-products excluding-duty index variant.
Checked the ONS release calendar for Producer price inflation, UK: July 2026 and its connected time-series release.↳ The ONS release calendar lists Producer price inflation, UK: July 2026 time series for 19 August 2026 at 7:00am, confirmed; the same calendar page also lists Producer price inflation, UK: July 2026 for 19 August 2026 at 7:00am.Fetched ONS GD6Y monthly values from the official time-series page.↳ GD6Y values fetched from ONS: 2026 MAR 149.5, 2026 APR 152.2, 2026 MAY 152.6, 2026 JUN 153.4; 2026 Q2 is 152.7 and 2025 JUL is 144.3.Fetched ONS PPI dataset page metadata for the current published vintage.↳ The ONS Producer price inflation time series dataset current page has Release date 22 July 2026 and Next release 19 August 2026; the 22 July 2026 vintage contains June 2026 data, and the previous version was superseded 22 July 2026 07:00.Fetched the June 2026 ONS Producer price inflation bulletin for current-release context.↳ ONS reported producer output factory gate prices rose 3.5% in the year to June 2026, down from 3.7% in May, and monthly output prices were flat in June; input prices rose 7.3% annually and fell 2.0% monthly; coke and refined petroleum output prices rose 43.0% annually but fell 5.9% monthly in June.Reference class/base rate: for this level index, I used recent month-to-month GD6Y changes as the base rate, with the last 29 monthly changes from 2024 JAN to 2026 JUN averaging +0.414 index points and a sample standard deviation of 0.823. This volatility sample excludes the target month by construction. July-only changes from 2016 through 2025 averaged about +0.650, with a sample standard deviation about 0.868.
Prior/update/interval: persistence prior is June GD6Y 153.4 plus the historical July seasonal mean change of +0.65, tempered slightly because the June bulletin showed output PPI annual inflation easing and petroleum output prices falling; level component 153.4, momentum/seasonal component +0.6, one-off petroleum drag about -0.1 relative to spring momentum, policy-mechanism effect 0.0, giving point 154.0. For the interval, using recent level-series successive changes, sigma = 0.823 index points, so 1.28*sigma = 1.054; rounding to a one-decimal first print gives an 80% interval of 154.0 +/- 1.1 = [152.9, 155.1].
Counter-consideration: upside risk is a renewed July jump in refined petroleum, metals, or other manufactured-output prices after the Middle East-linked volatility noted by ONS, which would land above the interval if GD6Y rises more than 1.7 points from June. Downside risk is a sharper reversal in petroleum and imported input costs feeding into factory-gate prices, which would land outside the interval below 152.9 if GD6Y falls by more than 0.5 points from June.
Review disposition: accepted the reviewer suggestion to clarify that the 22 July 2026 dataset vintage contains June 2026 data, not target-month leakage, and added that the volatility sample excludes the target month. I also tightened the resolver language to first-print only.