thesisPrototype

Government data

UK Residential Transactions SA, August 2026

HMRC Monthly Property Transactions provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions in August 2026, first print.

Overdue · was due Sep 30, 2026

The resolver has no route for this target's reference. The target was registered with a generic source link rather than a resolver binding.

NO_ROUTE_GENERIC_URL · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

95,600
90,500–100,700
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗
88,35094,250100,200106,100January 2026July 2026Sep 202695,600
historyforecast path80% interval
Probability distribution

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%82,85095,600108,350Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (90,500–100,700). Dashed line: point estimate (95,600).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§UK residential property transactions SA August 2026 forecast

Framing and exact resolver: the target is HMRC's provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of UK residential transactions for August 2026, first print only, in the Monthly property transactions tables. The variant is UK residential, seasonally adjusted, source series MPT_UK_RESIDENTIAL_SA; all transaction anchors here refer to that same variant.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the GOV.UK statistics page and the GOV.UK official statistics announcement for the scheduled August 2026 property-transactions release.
↳ GOV.UK states the latest release was 09:30 on 28 August 2026 with July 2026 data, and the next release will be published at 09:30 on 30 September 2026 with August 2026 data; the announcement page lists release date 30 September 2026 9:30am provisional.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched the latest HMRC GOV.UK commentary for the same seasonally adjusted UK residential series.
↳ HMRC's July 2026 provisional seasonally adjusted UK residential transactions estimate was 96,710, 1% lower than July 2025 and 2% lower than June 2026; the same page states June 2026 was 98,390 and July 2025 was 97,820.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched HMRC recent-release history and same-month context from GOV.UK commentary and HMRC-cited public release reports.
↳ Recent provisional seasonally adjusted UK residential transaction prints used for the reference class were January 2026 94,680, February 2026 102,410, March 2026 103,910, April 2026 101,030, May 2026 98,450, June 2026 about 98,700 at first print before later revision to 98,390, and July 2026 96,710; August first prints were 87,010 in 2023, 90,210 in 2024, and 93,630 in 2025.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched mortgage and pipeline indicators from Bank of England Money and Credit releases.
↳ Bank of England reported house-purchase mortgage approvals of 65,900 in April 2026, 56,200 in May 2026, 58,200 in June 2026, and 56,100 in July 2026; the newly drawn mortgage rate rose from 4.22% in May to 4.35% in June and 4.45% in July.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior is the July 2026 first-print level of 96,710, with a reference class/base rate from recent first-print-like monthly levels [94,680, 102,410, 103,910, 101,030, 98,450, 98,700, 96,710], mean 99,413. Adjustment components: level anchor 96,710; momentum -900 because July fell 2% from June and August 2025 also fell from July; one-off +300 because April-to-July 2026 seasonally adjusted transactions totalled 393,800 and August 2023-2025 same-month levels had been rising; policy/credit mechanism -500 because May-July mortgage approvals were around 56,100 to 58,200 after April's 65,900 and rates rose to 4.45%. Combined point is 96,710 - 900 + 300 - 500 = 95,610, rounded to 95,600. Interval method uses successive changes for this level series: changes are +7,730, +1,500, -2,880, -2,580, +250, -1,990, so sigma = 4007; 1.28*sigma = 5129. This volatility estimate is mechanically derived but sample-limited because it uses a short recent first-print-like history. Point 95,600 +/- about 5,100 gives 90,500 to 100,700 after rounding to the nearest ten.

Counter-considerations: upside risk is that high April approvals and resilient completed-sales pipelines carry more strongly into August than assumed, which would land above the interval if the first print exceeds 100,700. Downside risk is a sharper lagged response to May-July approval weakness, higher mortgage rates, or longer chains falling through, which would land outside the interval below 90,500. The main uncertainty is timing because HMRC notes these completions generally reflect offers made two to four months earlier.

Review disposition: accepted the suggestion to include the June 2026 Bank of England Money and Credit URL because the draft used exact June approval and rate figures; accepted the suggestion to state that the sigma-based 80% interval is sample-limited. No required fixes were raised.

Key drivers

  • July 2026 first print was 96,710 seasonally adjusted residential transactions
  • June 2026 was revised to 98,390 after an earlier provisional print near 98,700
  • August 2025 first print fell from July to 93,630
  • Mortgage approvals weakened in May and July 2026
  • Completions lag offers by roughly two to four months
  • April-to-July 2026 seasonally adjusted total stayed high at 393,800

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
HMRC Monthly property transactions completed in the UK with value of GBP40,000 or above, UK monthly property transactions tables
Resolution date
September 30, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of UK residential transactions for August 2026 in HMRC's first official Monthly property transactions completed in the UK with value of GBP40,000 or above release published on 2026-09-30, series code MPT_UK_RESIDENTIAL_SA, UK monthly property transactions tables. Use the count as published, rounded to the nearest ten; do not incorporate later revisions or replacement files after the first print.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.5.11

pre-submit review · completed

The draft is publishable: resolver, prior/update/interval, tails, and JSON fields are coherent with the registered target.

  • info optional_suggestion: Add the June 2026 Bank of England Money and Credit URL or avoid relying on exact June approval/rate figures if that source is not otherwise captured.
  • info optional_suggestion: Note that the volatility estimate uses a short recent sample, so the 80% interval is mechanically derived but sample-limited.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the suggestion to include the June 2026 Bank of England Money and Credit URL because the draft used exact June approval and rate figures; accepted the suggestion to state that the sigma-based 80% interval is sample-limited. No required fixes were raised.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the suggestion to include the June 2026 Bank of England Money and Credit URL because the draft used exact June approval and rate figures; accepted the suggestion to state that the sigma-based 80% interval is sample-limited. No required fixes were raised.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§UK residential property transactions SA August 2026 forecast

Framing and exact resolver: the target is HMRC's provisional seasonally adjusted estimate of UK residential transactions for August 2026, first print only, in the Monthly property transactions tables. The variant is UK residential, seasonally adjusted, source series MPT_UK_RESIDENTIAL_SA; all transaction anchors here refer to that same variant.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the GOV.UK statistics page and the GOV.UK official statistics announcement for the scheduled August 2026 property-transactions release.
↳ GOV.UK states the latest release was 09:30 on 28 August 2026 with July 2026 data, and the next release will be published at 09:30 on 30 September 2026 with August 2026 data; the announcement page lists release date 30 September 2026 9:30am provisional.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched the latest HMRC GOV.UK commentary for the same seasonally adjusted UK residential series.
↳ HMRC's July 2026 provisional seasonally adjusted UK residential transactions estimate was 96,710, 1% lower than July 2025 and 2% lower than June 2026; the same page states June 2026 was 98,390 and July 2025 was 97,820.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched HMRC recent-release history and same-month context from GOV.UK commentary and HMRC-cited public release reports.
↳ Recent provisional seasonally adjusted UK residential transaction prints used for the reference class were January 2026 94,680, February 2026 102,410, March 2026 103,910, April 2026 101,030, May 2026 98,450, June 2026 about 98,700 at first print before later revision to 98,390, and July 2026 96,710; August first prints were 87,010 in 2023, 90,210 in 2024, and 93,630 in 2025.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched mortgage and pipeline indicators from Bank of England Money and Credit releases.
↳ Bank of England reported house-purchase mortgage approvals of 65,900 in April 2026, 56,200 in May 2026, 58,200 in June 2026, and 56,100 in July 2026; the newly drawn mortgage rate rose from 4.22% in May to 4.35% in June and 4.45% in July.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior is the July 2026 first-print level of 96,710, with a reference class/base rate from recent first-print-like monthly levels [94,680, 102,410, 103,910, 101,030, 98,450, 98,700, 96,710], mean 99,413. Adjustment components: level anchor 96,710; momentum -900 because July fell 2% from June and August 2025 also fell from July; one-off +300 because April-to-July 2026 seasonally adjusted transactions totalled 393,800 and August 2023-2025 same-month levels had been rising; policy/credit mechanism -500 because May-July mortgage approvals were around 56,100 to 58,200 after April's 65,900 and rates rose to 4.45%. Combined point is 96,710 - 900 + 300 - 500 = 95,610, rounded to 95,600. Interval method uses successive changes for this level series: changes are +7,730, +1,500, -2,880, -2,580, +250, -1,990, so sigma = 4007; 1.28*sigma = 5129. This volatility estimate is mechanically derived but sample-limited because it uses a short recent first-print-like history. Point 95,600 +/- about 5,100 gives 90,500 to 100,700 after rounding to the nearest ten.

Counter-considerations: upside risk is that high April approvals and resilient completed-sales pipelines carry more strongly into August than assumed, which would land above the interval if the first print exceeds 100,700. Downside risk is a sharper lagged response to May-July approval weakness, higher mortgage rates, or longer chains falling through, which would land outside the interval below 90,500. The main uncertainty is timing because HMRC notes these completions generally reflect offers made two to four months earlier.

Review disposition: accepted the suggestion to include the June 2026 Bank of England Money and Credit URL because the draft used exact June approval and rate figures; accepted the suggestion to state that the sigma-based 80% interval is sample-limited. No required fixes were raised.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
95,600[90,500 · 100,700]
Target metadata

Data point: hmrc.property_transactions.uk_residential_sa.2026_08.first_print

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