thesisPrototype

Government data

UK Total Trade Balance, June 2026

ONS Total Trade (TT): WW: Balance: BOP: CP: SA, June 2026, first print

Overdue · was due Aug 13, 2026

The resolver has no route for this target's reference. The target was registered with a generic source link rather than a resolver binding.

NO_ROUTE_GENERIC_URL · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

£-3.1B
£-6.8B–£0.6B
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%£-12.4B£-3.1B£6.2BForecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (£-6.8B–£0.6B). Dashed line: point estimate (£-3.1B).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§UK June 2026 Total Trade Balance Forecast

Framing and exact resolver: this forecast targets ONS MRET series IKBJ, Total Trade (TT): WW: Balance: BOP: CP: SA, for 2026 JUN, first print. The source page reports units of £m, so the ledger transform is multiply by 0.001 into gbp_billions. Historical anchors below use the same IKBJ current-price seasonally adjusted total trade balance variant.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the official GOV.UK announcement for UK trade: June 2026 time series release timing.
↳ Release date fetched as 13 August 2026 7:00am confirmed; previous listed time was 13 August 2026 9:30am.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched exact ONS MRET IKBJ recent monthly observations from the ONS time-series page.
↳ Fetched IKBJ values: 2026 MAY = -1044 £m, 2026 APR = -7053 £m, 2026 MAR = -10467 £m, 2026 FEB = -5757 £m, 2026 JAN = 1498 £m.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched recent same-month and prior-year IKBJ observations for reference-class context.
↳ Fetched IKBJ values: 2025 JUN = -4109 £m, 2025 MAY = -3280 £m, 2025 APR = -3895 £m, 2024 JUN = -3274 £m, 2024 MAY = -2888 £m.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the latest ONS UK trade bulletin for current-release movement notes, treating bulletin aggregates as qualitative context where they exclude precious metals while the resolver remains IKBJ.
↳ ONS reported May 2026 goods exports at £35.0bn, goods imports at £54.5bn, goods balance at -£19.5bn, goods exports up £1.5bn, goods imports up £0.5bn, and the three-month total trade deficit excluding precious metals at -£9.1bn.

Base rate / reference class: the recent IKBJ monthly balance reference class from June 2024 through May 2026 has mean -2.94 gbp_billions; the latest five 2026 observations average -4.56 gbp_billions, while May alone was much less negative at -1.044 gbp_billions. I give most weight to regression from May toward the recent deficit base rate, with some weight on weak early-2026 momentum.

Prior/update/interval: persistence/reference-class model uses 24 monthly IKBJ values from 2024 JUN to 2026 MAY; base mean = -2.94 gbp_billions, latest May = -1.044, 2026 Jan-May mean = -4.56. Point update = 0.45*(-2.94) + 0.30*(-1.044) + 0.25*(-4.56) = -2.78, then rounded a little more negative to -3.1 because March-April 2026 showed unusually large deficits and May's improvement may partly reverse. For this flow series I size dispersion from the values themselves: sigma = 2.89 gbp_billions over the 24-month sample, so 80% half-width is about 1.28*sigma = 1.28*2.89 = 3.70; final bounds are -3.1 +/- 3.7 = [-6.8, 0.6].

Counter-consideration: upside risk is another unusually strong services surplus or precious-metals-related swing that would land above the interval with a surplus greater than 0.6 gbp_billions. Downside risk is a repeat of March-April weakness in total trade or a goods-import jump not matched by exports, which would land outside the interval below -6.8 gbp_billions.

Review disposition: accepted the reviewer assessment that no required fixes were needed; retained the explicit level-dispersion interval method because the prompt asks for value dispersion for flow series and the arithmetic is already stated.

Key drivers

  • May 2026 balance improved sharply from April but the 2026 year-to-date run rate remains deficit-heavy
  • Recent IKBJ monthly balances are volatile, especially around March and April 2026
  • Goods exports rose in May while goods imports also rose, leaving uncertainty about whether the May improvement persists
  • Services estimates are partly forecast-based before quarterly benchmark data, adding revision and nowcast risk
  • Exact resolver is ONS MRET series IKBJ in current-price seasonally adjusted total trade balance

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
Office for National Statistics UK trade time series (MRET), series IKBJ
Resolution date
August 13, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first official ONS value for 2026 JUN in MRET series IKBJ, Total Trade (TT): WW: Balance: BOP: CP: SA, in £m, multiplied by 0.001 to express gbp_billions. Use the first print published for the June 2026 UK trade time series; do not substitute later revisions or same-day corrections unless the first print is withdrawn before publication as an official value.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.5.9

pre-submit review · completed

The draft is publication-ready against the rubric, with exact target binding, an explicit prior/update/interval calculation, coherent fields, and no apparent leakage or unit ambiguity.

  • info optional_suggestion: Consider noting that the interval uses level dispersion rather than one-step forecast-error volatility, but the current uncertainty method is explicit enough for publication.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the reviewer assessment that no required fixes were needed; retained the explicit level-dispersion interval method because the prompt asks for value dispersion for flow series and the arithmetic is already stated.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§UK June 2026 Total Trade Balance Forecast

Framing and exact resolver: this forecast targets ONS MRET series IKBJ, Total Trade (TT): WW: Balance: BOP: CP: SA, for 2026 JUN, first print. The source page reports units of £m, so the ledger transform is multiply by 0.001 into gbp_billions. Historical anchors below use the same IKBJ current-price seasonally adjusted total trade balance variant.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the official GOV.UK announcement for UK trade: June 2026 time series release timing.
↳ Release date fetched as 13 August 2026 7:00am confirmed; previous listed time was 13 August 2026 9:30am.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched exact ONS MRET IKBJ recent monthly observations from the ONS time-series page.
↳ Fetched IKBJ values: 2026 MAY = -1044 £m, 2026 APR = -7053 £m, 2026 MAR = -10467 £m, 2026 FEB = -5757 £m, 2026 JAN = 1498 £m.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched recent same-month and prior-year IKBJ observations for reference-class context.
↳ Fetched IKBJ values: 2025 JUN = -4109 £m, 2025 MAY = -3280 £m, 2025 APR = -3895 £m, 2024 JUN = -3274 £m, 2024 MAY = -2888 £m.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the latest ONS UK trade bulletin for current-release movement notes, treating bulletin aggregates as qualitative context where they exclude precious metals while the resolver remains IKBJ.
↳ ONS reported May 2026 goods exports at £35.0bn, goods imports at £54.5bn, goods balance at -£19.5bn, goods exports up £1.5bn, goods imports up £0.5bn, and the three-month total trade deficit excluding precious metals at -£9.1bn.

Base rate / reference class: the recent IKBJ monthly balance reference class from June 2024 through May 2026 has mean -2.94 gbp_billions; the latest five 2026 observations average -4.56 gbp_billions, while May alone was much less negative at -1.044 gbp_billions. I give most weight to regression from May toward the recent deficit base rate, with some weight on weak early-2026 momentum.

Prior/update/interval: persistence/reference-class model uses 24 monthly IKBJ values from 2024 JUN to 2026 MAY; base mean = -2.94 gbp_billions, latest May = -1.044, 2026 Jan-May mean = -4.56. Point update = 0.45*(-2.94) + 0.30*(-1.044) + 0.25*(-4.56) = -2.78, then rounded a little more negative to -3.1 because March-April 2026 showed unusually large deficits and May's improvement may partly reverse. For this flow series I size dispersion from the values themselves: sigma = 2.89 gbp_billions over the 24-month sample, so 80% half-width is about 1.28*sigma = 1.28*2.89 = 3.70; final bounds are -3.1 +/- 3.7 = [-6.8, 0.6].

Counter-consideration: upside risk is another unusually strong services surplus or precious-metals-related swing that would land above the interval with a surplus greater than 0.6 gbp_billions. Downside risk is a repeat of March-April weakness in total trade or a goods-import jump not matched by exports, which would land outside the interval below -6.8 gbp_billions.

Review disposition: accepted the reviewer assessment that no required fixes were needed; retained the explicit level-dispersion interval method because the prompt asks for value dispersion for flow series and the arithmetic is already stated.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
£-3.1B[£-6.8B · £0.6B]
Target metadata

Data point: ons.trade.total_goods_services_balance.2026_06.first_print

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