thesisPrototype

Government data

UK Vacancies, AP2Y, 2026 JUL

What will the Office for National Statistics first print for UK Vacancies (thousands) - Total, seasonally adjusted, series AP2Y, period 2026 JUL?

Overdue · was due Sep 15, 2026

The resolver has no route for this target's reference. The target was registered with a generic source link rather than a resolver binding.

NO_ROUTE_GENERIC_URL · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

703k
692k–714k
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗
6857057267472025-072026-06Sep 2026703k
historyforecast path80% interval
Probability distribution

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%676k703k731kForecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (692k–714k). Dashed line: point estimate (703k).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§ONS AP2Y 2026 JUL Forecast

The resolver is the ONS AP2Y series, UK Vacancies (thousands) - Total, seasonally adjusted, in the UNEM time-series page. The latest observed AP2Y print in the fetched source is 2026 JUN at 707 thousand; the registered target is the next AP2Y period, 2026 JUL, resolving on 2026-09-15. The catalog slug's May-Jul wording appears to describe the rolling vacancy reference period, while the binding target field remains AP2Y 2026 JUL.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened the ONS AP2Y time-series page for UK Vacancies (thousands) - Total.
↳ ONS AP2Y was released on 18 August 2026, next release 15 September 2026, and recent monthly values included 2026 JAN 725, 2026 FEB 718, 2026 MAR 713, 2026 APR 710, 2026 MAY 711, and 2026 JUN 707.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read the ONS Labour market overview, UK: August 2026 bulletin.
↳ ONS said early estimates for May to July 2026 vacancies decreased by 6,000, or 0.8%, to 707,000, compared with February to April 2026, and had decreased by 11,000 since January to March 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the official September 2026 UK Labour Market announcement.
↳ The GOV.UK official statistics announcement gives UK Labour Market: September 2026 a confirmed release date of 15 September 2026 at 7:00am; the relevant latest AP2Y value checked against that release path is 707 thousand for 2026 JUN.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched the AP2Y recent reference class from the ONS time-series table.
↳ The 18-print AP2Y sample used for changes was 2025 JAN 793, FEB 775, MAR 759, APR 738, MAY 730, JUN 727, JUL 737, AUG 729, SEP 728, OCT 730, NOV 739, DEC 734, 2026 JAN 725, FEB 718, MAR 713, APR 710, MAY 711, JUN 707.

Base rate/reference class: the recent official AP2Y sequence is a low-volatility level series after the 2022 peak, with the last six prints moving 725 to 718 to 713 to 710 to 711 to 707. Persistence from 707 is the starting base rate, then I apply a small negative drift because the ONS bulletin still describes vacancies as decreasing and small firms as constrained by labour costs and operating expenses.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior = 707 from AP2Y 2026 JUN; historical sample = 18 latest official monthly AP2Y prints from 2025 JAN through 2026 JUN; adjustment components = level 707, momentum about -3 to -4 from the latest changes, one-off none, policy-mechanism effect small negative from labour-cost pressure; final point = 707 - 4 = 703. Successive changes in the sample are -18,-16,-21,-8,-3,10,-8,-1,2,9,-5,-9,-7,-5,-3,1,-4, giving sigma = 8.35 thousand. The 80% half-width is about 1.28*sigma = 1.28*8.35 = 10.69 thousand, so rounded bounds are 703 - 11 = 692 and 703 + 11 = 714.

Upside risk for AP2Y rolling vacancies is a rebound in hiring demand or a favorable survey rotation that would keep the first-print 2026 JUL value near or above 715. Downside risk for AP2Y rolling vacancies is a sharper hiring freeze from higher labour costs or weakening payroll employment that would land below 692. Outside the interval would likely require a move larger than the recent non-pandemic monthly dispersion, not just another flat three-month average.

Review disposition: accepted both reviewer suggestions by clarifying that 2026 JUN is the latest observed AP2Y value while 2026 JUL is the registered target, and by tying the upside and downside scenarios explicitly to AP2Y rolling vacancies. No reviewer critiques were rejected.

Key drivers

  • Vacancies broadly flat but still easing
  • Small-firm labour-cost pressure
  • Weak PAYE employment backdrop
  • Three-month average smooths monthly shocks

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
Office for National Statistics UK Vacancies (thousands) - Total time series AP2Y
Resolution date
September 15, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first official ONS AP2Y value for period 2026 JUL in the UK Vacancies (thousands) - Total, seasonally adjusted, UNEM time series, published for the 15 September 2026 UK labour market release. Use the integer value in thousands as first printed; ignore later revisions.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.5.11

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is publishable with no blocking issues; it ties the forecast to the registered AP2Y 2026 JUL first-print target, states a persistence prior, explains the update, and keeps point/interval fields coherent.

  • info optional_suggestion: Tighten the ledger-label discrepancy sentence so it clearly distinguishes the known 2026 JUN AP2Y latest value from the registered 2026 JUL target resolving on 2026-09-15.
  • info optional_suggestion: In the tail-risk sentence, name the rolling-vacancy target explicitly so the upside/downside scenarios are unmistakably tied to AP2Y rather than broader labour-market indicators.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted both reviewer suggestions by clarifying that 2026 JUN is the latest observed AP2Y value while 2026 JUL is the registered target, and by tying the upside and downside scenarios explicitly to AP2Y rolling vacancies. No reviewer critiques were rejected.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted both reviewer suggestions by clarifying that 2026 JUN is the latest observed AP2Y value while 2026 JUL is the registered target, and by tying the upside and downside scenarios explicitly to AP2Y rolling vacancies. No reviewer critiques were rejected.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§ONS AP2Y 2026 JUL Forecast

The resolver is the ONS AP2Y series, UK Vacancies (thousands) - Total, seasonally adjusted, in the UNEM time-series page. The latest observed AP2Y print in the fetched source is 2026 JUN at 707 thousand; the registered target is the next AP2Y period, 2026 JUL, resolving on 2026-09-15. The catalog slug's May-Jul wording appears to describe the rolling vacancy reference period, while the binding target field remains AP2Y 2026 JUL.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened the ONS AP2Y time-series page for UK Vacancies (thousands) - Total.
↳ ONS AP2Y was released on 18 August 2026, next release 15 September 2026, and recent monthly values included 2026 JAN 725, 2026 FEB 718, 2026 MAR 713, 2026 APR 710, 2026 MAY 711, and 2026 JUN 707.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read the ONS Labour market overview, UK: August 2026 bulletin.
↳ ONS said early estimates for May to July 2026 vacancies decreased by 6,000, or 0.8%, to 707,000, compared with February to April 2026, and had decreased by 11,000 since January to March 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the official September 2026 UK Labour Market announcement.
↳ The GOV.UK official statistics announcement gives UK Labour Market: September 2026 a confirmed release date of 15 September 2026 at 7:00am; the relevant latest AP2Y value checked against that release path is 707 thousand for 2026 JUN.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched the AP2Y recent reference class from the ONS time-series table.
↳ The 18-print AP2Y sample used for changes was 2025 JAN 793, FEB 775, MAR 759, APR 738, MAY 730, JUN 727, JUL 737, AUG 729, SEP 728, OCT 730, NOV 739, DEC 734, 2026 JAN 725, FEB 718, MAR 713, APR 710, MAY 711, JUN 707.

Base rate/reference class: the recent official AP2Y sequence is a low-volatility level series after the 2022 peak, with the last six prints moving 725 to 718 to 713 to 710 to 711 to 707. Persistence from 707 is the starting base rate, then I apply a small negative drift because the ONS bulletin still describes vacancies as decreasing and small firms as constrained by labour costs and operating expenses.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior = 707 from AP2Y 2026 JUN; historical sample = 18 latest official monthly AP2Y prints from 2025 JAN through 2026 JUN; adjustment components = level 707, momentum about -3 to -4 from the latest changes, one-off none, policy-mechanism effect small negative from labour-cost pressure; final point = 707 - 4 = 703. Successive changes in the sample are -18,-16,-21,-8,-3,10,-8,-1,2,9,-5,-9,-7,-5,-3,1,-4, giving sigma = 8.35 thousand. The 80% half-width is about 1.28*sigma = 1.28*8.35 = 10.69 thousand, so rounded bounds are 703 - 11 = 692 and 703 + 11 = 714.

Upside risk for AP2Y rolling vacancies is a rebound in hiring demand or a favorable survey rotation that would keep the first-print 2026 JUL value near or above 715. Downside risk for AP2Y rolling vacancies is a sharper hiring freeze from higher labour costs or weakening payroll employment that would land below 692. Outside the interval would likely require a move larger than the recent non-pandemic monthly dispersion, not just another flat three-month average.

Review disposition: accepted both reviewer suggestions by clarifying that 2026 JUN is the latest observed AP2Y value while 2026 JUL is the registered target, and by tying the upside and downside scenarios explicitly to AP2Y rolling vacancies. No reviewer critiques were rejected.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
703k[692k · 714k]
Target metadata

Data point: ons.labour.vacancies_total.2026_07.first_print

More government data forecasts