thesisPrototype

Government data

US unemployment rate, September 2026

What will the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the seasonally adjusted civilian unemployment rate for September 2026 in the Current Population Survey, first print?

Overdue · was due Oct 2, 2026

This target was registered with a generic source link rather than a resolver binding, and a registration cannot be changed. The resolver will not substitute a different route to the number.

REGISTERED_WITHOUT_EXECUTOR · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

4.1%
4.0%–4.2%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗
3.94.14.34.5January 2026August 2026Oct 20264.1%
historyforecast path80% interval
Probability distribution

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%3.85%4.1%4.35%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (4.0%–4.2%). Dashed line: point estimate (4.1%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§September 2026 BLS CPS unemployment-rate forecast

The target is the BLS Current Population Survey seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, total civilian labor force age 16 and over, table A-1, for September 2026. The resolving page is the Employment Situation first print, not FRED or a later BLS database revision.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read BLS Employment Situation release schedule for September 2026 reference month.
↳ BLS schedule lists Employment Situation for September 2026 on October 2, 2026 at 08:30 AM ET; CPS release calendar also lists Oct. 02, 2026 for September 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read BLS January and February 2026 Employment Situation archive releases for CPS unemployment-rate first prints.
↳ January 2026 first print unemployment rate was 4.3 percent with 7.4 million unemployed; February 2026 first print unemployment rate was 4.4 percent with 7.6 million unemployed.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read BLS March through May 2026 Employment Situation archive releases for CPS unemployment-rate first prints.
↳ March 2026 first print unemployment rate was 4.3 percent with 7.2 million unemployed; April 2026 was 4.3 percent with 7.4 million unemployed; May 2026 was 4.3 percent with 7.3 million unemployed.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read BLS June through August 2026 Employment Situation releases for CPS unemployment-rate first prints and near-term labor indicators.
↳ June 2026 first print unemployment rate was 4.2 percent with 7.1 million unemployed and payrolls +57,000; July 2026 was 4.1 percent with 6.9 million unemployed and payrolls -23,000 first print; August 2026 was 4.1 percent with 7.0 million unemployed and payrolls +162,000.

The reference class is recent first-print CPS unemployment-rate levels in the same seasonally adjusted BLS table A-1 variant. The base rate from January-August 2026 is a stable 4.1 to 4.4 percent range, with the last two prints at 4.1 percent.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior uses the latest official first print, August 2026 = 4.1 percent. Historical sample is Jan-Aug 2026 first prints: 4.3, 4.4, 4.3, 4.3, 4.3, 4.2, 4.1, 4.1. Adjustment components: level - latest level anchors at 4.1; momentum - small decline from 4.3 in spring to 4.1 in July-August, but no August unemployment-rate move; one-off - July local-government weakness was partly offset in the August release by prior-month payroll revisions and stronger August payroll growth; policy mechanism - no direct policy rate or eligibility rule mechanically changes CPS unemployment by September. Successive changes are +0.1, -0.1, 0.0, 0.0, -0.1, -0.1, 0.0 percentage points; sample sigma = 0.076, so 1.28*sigma = 0.097. Around point 4.1, the rounded 80 percent interval is 4.0 to 4.2 percent.

Upside risk is a sharper labor-demand deterioration before the September survey week, for example weak hiring plus a rebound in labor-force participation, which could print 4.3 percent and land above the interval. Downside risk is another drop in temporary layoffs or exits from unemployment into nonparticipation, which could print 3.9 percent and land below the interval. Outside the interval would require at least about a 0.2 percentage point rounded move from August's 4.1 percent.

Review disposition: Accepted the nonblocking wording clarification that August's release revised prior payroll months rather than revising August itself, and kept the Table A-1 resolver explicit. No critique items required changing the point estimate, interval, resolver, or source set.

Key drivers

  • latest first print held at 4.1 percent
  • recent payroll growth improved in August
  • labor force participation still soft versus January
  • CPS monthly unemployment changes usually move by 0.0 to 0.1 point near this level

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation
Resolution date
October 2, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first-print seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for total civilian labor force, 16 years and over, in BLS Employment Situation household survey table A-1 for September 2026, as initially published on October 2, 2026. Use the value rounded to one decimal percent as printed by BLS; do not use later revisions, annual seasonal-factor revisions, corrected subsequent database vintages, or same-day corrections unless BLS replaces the initial release before public availability.

Forecast history

Select a version to read its estimate and analysis.

Forecast versions, estimates, and intervals
VersionDateEstimate80% interval
gpt-5.5Sep 21, 20264.1%4.0%–4.2%
gpt-5.5 · selectedSep 4, 20264.1%4.0%–4.2%
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.5.11

pre-submit review · completed

The draft is publication-ready on resolver, prior/update logic, interval construction, tails, and field coherence; I found no blocking fixes.

  • info optional_suggestion: Clarify the phrase about August payroll revisions: the August Employment Situation first print revises prior months, not August itself.
  • info optional_suggestion: Consider adding the exact BLS Table A-1 label to sourceContext or reasoning for easier auditability.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: Accepted the nonblocking wording clarification that August's release revised prior payroll months rather than revising August itself, and kept the Table A-1 resolver explicit. No critique items required changing the point estimate, interval, resolver, or source set.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: Accepted the nonblocking wording clarification that August's release revised prior payroll months rather than revising August itself, and kept the Table A-1 resolver explicit. No critique items required changing the point estimate, interval, resolver, or source set.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§September 2026 BLS CPS unemployment-rate forecast

The target is the BLS Current Population Survey seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, total civilian labor force age 16 and over, table A-1, for September 2026. The resolving page is the Employment Situation first print, not FRED or a later BLS database revision.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read BLS Employment Situation release schedule for September 2026 reference month.
↳ BLS schedule lists Employment Situation for September 2026 on October 2, 2026 at 08:30 AM ET; CPS release calendar also lists Oct. 02, 2026 for September 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read BLS January and February 2026 Employment Situation archive releases for CPS unemployment-rate first prints.
↳ January 2026 first print unemployment rate was 4.3 percent with 7.4 million unemployed; February 2026 first print unemployment rate was 4.4 percent with 7.6 million unemployed.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read BLS March through May 2026 Employment Situation archive releases for CPS unemployment-rate first prints.
↳ March 2026 first print unemployment rate was 4.3 percent with 7.2 million unemployed; April 2026 was 4.3 percent with 7.4 million unemployed; May 2026 was 4.3 percent with 7.3 million unemployed.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read BLS June through August 2026 Employment Situation releases for CPS unemployment-rate first prints and near-term labor indicators.
↳ June 2026 first print unemployment rate was 4.2 percent with 7.1 million unemployed and payrolls +57,000; July 2026 was 4.1 percent with 6.9 million unemployed and payrolls -23,000 first print; August 2026 was 4.1 percent with 7.0 million unemployed and payrolls +162,000.

The reference class is recent first-print CPS unemployment-rate levels in the same seasonally adjusted BLS table A-1 variant. The base rate from January-August 2026 is a stable 4.1 to 4.4 percent range, with the last two prints at 4.1 percent.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior uses the latest official first print, August 2026 = 4.1 percent. Historical sample is Jan-Aug 2026 first prints: 4.3, 4.4, 4.3, 4.3, 4.3, 4.2, 4.1, 4.1. Adjustment components: level - latest level anchors at 4.1; momentum - small decline from 4.3 in spring to 4.1 in July-August, but no August unemployment-rate move; one-off - July local-government weakness was partly offset in the August release by prior-month payroll revisions and stronger August payroll growth; policy mechanism - no direct policy rate or eligibility rule mechanically changes CPS unemployment by September. Successive changes are +0.1, -0.1, 0.0, 0.0, -0.1, -0.1, 0.0 percentage points; sample sigma = 0.076, so 1.28*sigma = 0.097. Around point 4.1, the rounded 80 percent interval is 4.0 to 4.2 percent.

Upside risk is a sharper labor-demand deterioration before the September survey week, for example weak hiring plus a rebound in labor-force participation, which could print 4.3 percent and land above the interval. Downside risk is another drop in temporary layoffs or exits from unemployment into nonparticipation, which could print 3.9 percent and land below the interval. Outside the interval would require at least about a 0.2 percentage point rounded move from August's 4.1 percent.

Review disposition: Accepted the nonblocking wording clarification that August's release revised prior payroll months rather than revising August itself, and kept the Table A-1 resolver explicit. No critique items required changing the point estimate, interval, resolver, or source set.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
4.1%[4.0% · 4.2%]
Target metadata

Data point: bls.cps.unemployment_rate.september_2026.first_print

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