thesisPrototype

Government data

FY2026 CDFI Assistance Obligations

What will the USAspending API v2 advanced search spending_over_time registered query return for FY2026 signed net federal_action_obligation, grouped by fiscal_year, for Community Development Financial Institutions Fund awarding-subagency financial-assistance award transactions, on the registered query snapshot captured for the first FY2026 resolution window?

Forecast

$281.1M
$-540.6M–$1,102.8M
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%$-1,773.15M$281.1M$2,335.35MForecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval ($-540.6M–$1,102.8M). Dashed line: point estimate ($281.1M).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§Resolve the registered USAspending snapshot

The target is not an agency profile total or a press-release headline. It is the registered USAspending POST query for CDFI Fund awarding-subagency financial-assistance award transactions, grouped by fiscal_year, with signed aggregated_amount scaled to usd_millions. The registered expectedReleaseWindow is 2026-10-15 through 2026-10-22, so I use the ledger outer bound 2026-10-22 as the resolutionDate.

▸ Reported tool use: curl.usaspending.spending_over_timemodel report
POST registered body for FY2014-FY2017 to https://api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/search/spending_over_time/
↳ Fetched aggregated_amount values: FY2014 217237896.00, FY2015 232190329.00, FY2016 3525000.00, FY2017 498977799.00; scaled values are 217.237896, 232.190329, 3.525000, 498.977799 usd_millions.
▸ Reported tool use: curl.usaspending.spending_over_timemodel report
POST registered body for FY2018-FY2021 to https://api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/search/spending_over_time/
↳ Fetched aggregated_amount values: FY2018 341830155.00, FY2019 201446413.00, FY2020 544341148.72, FY2021 1457586978.44; scaled values are 341.830155, 201.446413, 544.34114872, 1457.58697844 usd_millions.
▸ Reported tool use: curl.usaspending.spending_over_timemodel report
POST registered body for FY2022-FY2026 to https://api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/search/spending_over_time/
↳ Fetched aggregated_amount values: FY2022 577038328.27, FY2023 1986065187.00, FY2024 782042553.00, FY2025 319455176.00, FY2026 current full-FY-date-range snapshot -7003322.92; scaled values are 577.03832827, 1986.065187, 782.042553, 319.455176, -7.00332292 usd_millions.
▸ Reported tool use: curl.usaspending.spending_over_timemodel report
POST same registered body restricted to Oct 1-Aug 12 for FY2020-FY2026
↳ Fetched YTD aggregated_amount values: FY2020 317595484.72, FY2021 1424316989.44, FY2022 538207569.27, FY2023 1929177053.00, FY2024 337850749.00, FY2025 311407219.00, FY2026 -7003322.92; historical late additions from Aug 12 to fiscal-year close were 226.745664, 33.269989, 38.830759, 56.888134, 444.191804, and 8.047957 usd_millions.
▸ Reported tool use: curl.github.raw_and_specsmodel report
Fetch registered target JSON at commit 49bf9b5726d9faf93b6c96c9d73d4a52dc74c030 and check https://app.thesisinstitute.org/specs.json
↳ Fetched target registration: schemaVersion thesis_target_registration_v3, registeredAtUtc 2026-08-11T20:38:09Z, slug us-cdfi-assistance-transaction-obligations-fy2026, unit usd_millions, expectedReleaseWindow end 2026-10-22. The public specs.json check returned a 404 page, so I did not find contrary published slug evidence there.

Base rate/reference class: the last six completed same-query FY prints, FY2020-FY2025, were 544.3, 1457.6, 577.0, 1986.1, 782.0, and 319.5 usd_millions; mean 944.4, median 679.5, sigma 641.9, range 319.5-1986.1. The broader FY2014-FY2025 reference class has mean 596.8, median 420.4, sigma 575.7, and range 3.5-1986.1. Last-print persistence, FY2025 = 319.5, is the default prior because the series is a repeated annual flow and simple year-to-year movements are very noisy.

▸ Reported tool use: local.model_candidatesmodel report
Generate thesis_model_candidate_v1 candidates from fetched same-query history
↳ Candidate last_print_persistence: point 319.455, p10 -502.210, p50 319.455, p90 1141.120, 80% interval [-502.210, 1141.120], 90% interval [-736.513, 1375.423], calibration_n 6, trainCutoff FY2025, walk-forward FY2015-FY2025 MAE 568.084 and RMSE 721.007. Candidate six_year_mean: point 944.422, p10 122.756, p50 944.422, p90 1766.087, 80% interval [122.756, 1766.087], calibration_n 6.

Prior/update/interval: Prior is last-print persistence at 319.455176 usd_millions. Current same-query FY2026 YTD is -7.00332292; historical FY2020-FY2025 late additions after Aug 12 averaged 134.6623845, giving a YTD-plus-average-late signal of 127.65906158. Weight the prior 80% and the current timing signal 20% because the direct FY2026 value is informative but CDFI award booking is historically lumpy: point = 0.80*319.455176 + 0.20*127.65906158 = 281.095953116, rounded to 281.1. For the interval, use the last six completed full-year values themselves because this is a flow series: sigma = 641.925991 usd_millions, so 1.28*sigma = 821.665269. The 80% interval is 281.1 +/- 821.7 = [-540.6, 1102.8]. This interval would cover 8 of the last 10 completed FY prints; the misses are the unusually large FY2021 and FY2023 prints.

Counter-consideration: upside risk outside the interval would come from a large late FY2026 award round or data catch-up similar to the FY2021/FY2023 high-obligation years. Downside risk outside the interval would require net deobligations materially beyond the current -7.0 million YTD value, because the signed federal_action_obligation field can include negative adjustments.

Review disposition: accepted the optional resolver clarity suggestion by naming the first archived registered query snapshot within the 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-22 window, and accepted the historicalContext suggestion by adding FY2014-FY2019 values already used in the fetched reference class. No reviewer required fixes were raised.

Key drivers

  • FY2025 persistence at $319.5m
  • FY2026 same-query YTD at -$7.0m
  • late-FY additions averaged $134.7m in FY2020-FY2025
  • CDFI award timing is lumpy
  • wide same-query historical dispersion

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
USAspending API v2, search spending_over_time
Resolution date
October 22, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve from the first archived registered query snapshot captured within the 2026-10-15 through 2026-10-22 expectedReleaseWindow for USAspending API v2 advanced search, CDFI Fund awarding-subagency financial-assistance award transactions, obligations by fiscal year. POST the registered body with agencies=[{type: awarding, tier: subtier, name: Community Development Financial Institutions Fund}], award_type_codes=[02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11], time_period FY2026 2025-10-01 through 2026-09-30, group=fiscal_year, spending_level=transactions. Read results[time_period.fiscal_year=2026].aggregated_amount, multiply by 1e-6, and report usd_millions from the registered query snapshot; later USAspending revisions after the archived snapshot do not change this resolution.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · full · v2.5.9

pre-submit review · completed

The draft is publishable: resolver, registered-query history, prior/update math, interval, tails, and JSON fields are coherent with the target contract.

  • info optional_suggestion: Consider adding FY2014-FY2019 values to historicalContext since the reasoning uses the broader FY2014-FY2025 reference class.
  • info optional_suggestion: The resolutionRule could explicitly say the value is the first archived snapshot captured within 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-22 to mirror the first-print rule.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the optional resolver clarity suggestion by naming the first archived registered query snapshot within the 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-22 window, and accepted the historicalContext suggestion by adding FY2014-FY2019 values already used in the fetched reference class. No reviewer required fixes were raised.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the optional resolver clarity suggestion by naming the first archived registered query snapshot within the 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-22 window, and accepted the historicalContext suggestion by adding FY2014-FY2019 values already used in the fetched reference class. No reviewer required fixes were raised.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§Resolve the registered USAspending snapshot

The target is not an agency profile total or a press-release headline. It is the registered USAspending POST query for CDFI Fund awarding-subagency financial-assistance award transactions, grouped by fiscal_year, with signed aggregated_amount scaled to usd_millions. The registered expectedReleaseWindow is 2026-10-15 through 2026-10-22, so I use the ledger outer bound 2026-10-22 as the resolutionDate.

▸ Reported tool use: curl.usaspending.spending_over_timemodel report
POST registered body for FY2014-FY2017 to https://api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/search/spending_over_time/
↳ Fetched aggregated_amount values: FY2014 217237896.00, FY2015 232190329.00, FY2016 3525000.00, FY2017 498977799.00; scaled values are 217.237896, 232.190329, 3.525000, 498.977799 usd_millions.
▸ Reported tool use: curl.usaspending.spending_over_timemodel report
POST registered body for FY2018-FY2021 to https://api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/search/spending_over_time/
↳ Fetched aggregated_amount values: FY2018 341830155.00, FY2019 201446413.00, FY2020 544341148.72, FY2021 1457586978.44; scaled values are 341.830155, 201.446413, 544.34114872, 1457.58697844 usd_millions.
▸ Reported tool use: curl.usaspending.spending_over_timemodel report
POST registered body for FY2022-FY2026 to https://api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/search/spending_over_time/
↳ Fetched aggregated_amount values: FY2022 577038328.27, FY2023 1986065187.00, FY2024 782042553.00, FY2025 319455176.00, FY2026 current full-FY-date-range snapshot -7003322.92; scaled values are 577.03832827, 1986.065187, 782.042553, 319.455176, -7.00332292 usd_millions.
▸ Reported tool use: curl.usaspending.spending_over_timemodel report
POST same registered body restricted to Oct 1-Aug 12 for FY2020-FY2026
↳ Fetched YTD aggregated_amount values: FY2020 317595484.72, FY2021 1424316989.44, FY2022 538207569.27, FY2023 1929177053.00, FY2024 337850749.00, FY2025 311407219.00, FY2026 -7003322.92; historical late additions from Aug 12 to fiscal-year close were 226.745664, 33.269989, 38.830759, 56.888134, 444.191804, and 8.047957 usd_millions.
▸ Reported tool use: curl.github.raw_and_specsmodel report
Fetch registered target JSON at commit 49bf9b5726d9faf93b6c96c9d73d4a52dc74c030 and check https://app.thesisinstitute.org/specs.json
↳ Fetched target registration: schemaVersion thesis_target_registration_v3, registeredAtUtc 2026-08-11T20:38:09Z, slug us-cdfi-assistance-transaction-obligations-fy2026, unit usd_millions, expectedReleaseWindow end 2026-10-22. The public specs.json check returned a 404 page, so I did not find contrary published slug evidence there.

Base rate/reference class: the last six completed same-query FY prints, FY2020-FY2025, were 544.3, 1457.6, 577.0, 1986.1, 782.0, and 319.5 usd_millions; mean 944.4, median 679.5, sigma 641.9, range 319.5-1986.1. The broader FY2014-FY2025 reference class has mean 596.8, median 420.4, sigma 575.7, and range 3.5-1986.1. Last-print persistence, FY2025 = 319.5, is the default prior because the series is a repeated annual flow and simple year-to-year movements are very noisy.

▸ Reported tool use: local.model_candidatesmodel report
Generate thesis_model_candidate_v1 candidates from fetched same-query history
↳ Candidate last_print_persistence: point 319.455, p10 -502.210, p50 319.455, p90 1141.120, 80% interval [-502.210, 1141.120], 90% interval [-736.513, 1375.423], calibration_n 6, trainCutoff FY2025, walk-forward FY2015-FY2025 MAE 568.084 and RMSE 721.007. Candidate six_year_mean: point 944.422, p10 122.756, p50 944.422, p90 1766.087, 80% interval [122.756, 1766.087], calibration_n 6.

Prior/update/interval: Prior is last-print persistence at 319.455176 usd_millions. Current same-query FY2026 YTD is -7.00332292; historical FY2020-FY2025 late additions after Aug 12 averaged 134.6623845, giving a YTD-plus-average-late signal of 127.65906158. Weight the prior 80% and the current timing signal 20% because the direct FY2026 value is informative but CDFI award booking is historically lumpy: point = 0.80*319.455176 + 0.20*127.65906158 = 281.095953116, rounded to 281.1. For the interval, use the last six completed full-year values themselves because this is a flow series: sigma = 641.925991 usd_millions, so 1.28*sigma = 821.665269. The 80% interval is 281.1 +/- 821.7 = [-540.6, 1102.8]. This interval would cover 8 of the last 10 completed FY prints; the misses are the unusually large FY2021 and FY2023 prints.

Counter-consideration: upside risk outside the interval would come from a large late FY2026 award round or data catch-up similar to the FY2021/FY2023 high-obligation years. Downside risk outside the interval would require net deobligations materially beyond the current -7.0 million YTD value, because the signed federal_action_obligation field can include negative adjustments.

Review disposition: accepted the optional resolver clarity suggestion by naming the first archived registered query snapshot within the 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-22 window, and accepted the historicalContext suggestion by adding FY2014-FY2019 values already used in the fetched reference class. No reviewer required fixes were raised.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
$281.1M[$-540.6M · $1,102.8M]
Target metadata

Data point: usaspending.cdfi.assistance_transaction_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot

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