thesisPrototype

Government data

US Consumer Credit Annual Rate, Jun 2026

Federal Reserve G.19 Consumer Credit total consumer credit percent change at annual rate, seasonally adjusted, June 2026 first print

Forecast

+2.2%
-0.2%–+4.6%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%-3.8%+2.2%+8.2%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (-0.2%–+4.6%). Dashed line: point estimate (+2.2%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Observed outcomeinside 80% interval
actual
+3.3%
forecast
+2.2% with 80% interval [-0.2%, +4.6%]
error
+1.1% · absolute +1.1%
cdf score
CRPS 0.72 · PIT 0.68
source
federal_reserve_g19 G.19 Consumer Credit, outstanding, seasonally adjusted

First print for 2026-06 captured from https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/alfredgraph.csv?id=TOTALSLAR&vintage_date=2026-08-07 on the official release date named by the cell's resolver.

Analysis

§US G.19 total consumer credit annual-rate forecast for June 2026

Framing and exact resolver: this targets TOTALSLAR, the Federal Reserve G.19 total consumer credit percent change at annual rate, seasonally adjusted, for June 2026. The first official print is the value to resolve; later revisions are excluded. The ledger sourceBinding uses the ALFRED/FRED TOTALSLAR first-vintage mirror for mechanical resolution, while the substantive agency release is Federal Reserve G.19 Consumer Credit.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Federal Reserve statistical release calendar lookup for August 2026 G.19 Consumer Credit
↳ The official Federal Reserve August 2026 calendar lists G.19 - Consumer Credit at 3:00 p.m. on release date 7 in August 2026, so the verified resolution date is 2026-08-07.
▸ Reported tool use: fred.lookupmodel report
FRED TOTALSLAR page and table lookup for latest total consumer credit annual-rate values
↳ Fetched TOTALSLAR values: May 2026 -0.04, Apr 2026 4.87, Mar 2026 5.35, Feb 2026 1.70, Jan 2026 1.05; units are percent change at annual rate, seasonally adjusted annual rate, monthly, last updated 2026-07-08 2:01 PM CDT.
▸ Reported tool use: fred.lookupmodel report
FRED component lookup for latest revolving and nonrevolving annual-rate values
↳ Fetched component values: revolving credit annual rate May 2026 -4.71, Apr 2026 10.36, Mar 2026 9.66; nonrevolving credit annual rate May 2026 1.61, Apr 2026 2.93, Mar 2026 3.84.
▸ Reported tool use: fred.lookupmodel report
FRED flow lookup for total consumer credit monthly-rate dollars
↳ Fetched total consumer credit flow values: May 2026 -182.45 million dollars monthly rate, Apr 2026 20822.88 million, Mar 2026 22786.34 million, Feb 2026 7249.04 million, Jan 2026 4454.26 million.

Reference class and base rate: for the same TOTALSLAR variant, the 2024-01 through 2026-05 fetched values average about 2.14 percent annualized. The most recent five values average about 2.59, but May's -0.04 was a sharp reversal after March-April strength, so I use a base rate near 2.1 and only a small rebound adjustment.

Prior/update/interval: persistence/base-rate prior = 2.14 from the 29 monthly TOTALSLAR observations from 2024-01 through 2026-05; this simple recent-history time-series model is used without a richer structural model because the evidence set is recent monthly annualized first-print history. Adjustment components are +0.2 for rebound from May's revolving-credit drag, -0.1 for still-tight consumer-credit conditions, and roughly 0.0 for nonrevolving steadiness, giving point 2.2. Interval method uses realized dispersion of those same annualized change-rate values: sigma = 1.71; 1.28*sigma = 2.19, rounded and modestly widened to a 2.4-point half-width because the May-to-June first print can swing with revolving credit, implying about -0.2 to 4.6.

Upside risk: a rebound in revolving balances after May's -4.71 revolving annual rate plus steady nonrevolving growth would land above the interval if total credit re-accelerates past about 4.6 percent annualized. Downside risk: another revolving contraction or auto/student nonrevolving weakness would land below the interval if the total annual rate is more negative than about -0.2. An outside the interval outcome is plausible mainly through unusually large revolving-card paydown or unusually strong June borrowing.

Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by tying mechanical resolution to the ledger ALFRED/FRED TOTALSLAR first-vintage CSV while keeping Federal Reserve G.19 as the underlying official agency source; accepted adding ALFRED to sourceContext; accepted clarifying that the prior is a simple recent-history persistence/base-rate model.

Key drivers

  • May headline was temporarily weak after March-April strength
  • Revolving credit is the volatile downside component
  • Nonrevolving credit remained positive in latest print
  • Recent 2024-2026 total-credit base rate is near 2 percent annualized
  • First-print monthly annualized rates have large month-to-month noise

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
Federal Reserve G.19 Consumer Credit via ALFRED first-vintage TOTALSLAR mirror
Resolved
August 8, 2026
Resolution rule
Resolve mechanically to ALFRED/FRED field TOTALSLAR for observation period 2026-06, using the first vintage corresponding to the Federal Reserve G.19 Consumer Credit first official June 2026 print released on 2026-08-07; use the published percent change at annual rate, seasonally adjusted value rounded to two decimals and do not incorporate later revisions.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.4.0

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is close to publishable, but the resolver/source binding should be tightened to match the ledger’s first-print ALFRED/Fed setup.

  • warning resolver: The draft uses the mutable Federal Reserve current G.19 page as resolutionSourceUrl, while the ledger sourceBinding specifies ALFRED/FRED TOTALSLAR first-vintage CSV as the mechanical source for the first print.
  • info optional_suggestion: Add the ALFRED source URL to sourceContext so the cited evidence matches the ledger binding.
  • info optional_suggestion: In the prior/update/interval step, briefly state that the persistence/base-rate prior is the chosen time-series model and no richer model is used because only recent monthly annualized first-print history is being used.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by tying mechanical resolution to the ledger ALFRED/FRED TOTALSLAR first-vintage CSV while keeping Federal Reserve G.19 as the underlying official agency source; accepted adding ALFRED to sourceContext; accepted clarifying that the prior is a simple recent-history persistence/base-rate model.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by tying mechanical resolution to the ledger ALFRED/FRED TOTALSLAR first-vintage CSV while keeping Federal Reserve G.19 as the underlying official agency source; accepted adding ALFRED to sourceContext; accepted clarifying that the prior is a simple recent-history persistence/base-rate model.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by tying mechanical resolution to the ledger ALFRED/FRED TOTALSLAR first-vintage CSV while keeping Federal Reserve G.19 as the underlying official agency source; accepted adding ALFRED to sourceContext; accepted clarifying that the prior is a simple recent-history persistence/base-rate model.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§US G.19 total consumer credit annual-rate forecast for June 2026

Framing and exact resolver: this targets TOTALSLAR, the Federal Reserve G.19 total consumer credit percent change at annual rate, seasonally adjusted, for June 2026. The first official print is the value to resolve; later revisions are excluded. The ledger sourceBinding uses the ALFRED/FRED TOTALSLAR first-vintage mirror for mechanical resolution, while the substantive agency release is Federal Reserve G.19 Consumer Credit.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Federal Reserve statistical release calendar lookup for August 2026 G.19 Consumer Credit
↳ The official Federal Reserve August 2026 calendar lists G.19 - Consumer Credit at 3:00 p.m. on release date 7 in August 2026, so the verified resolution date is 2026-08-07.
▸ Reported tool use: fred.lookupmodel report
FRED TOTALSLAR page and table lookup for latest total consumer credit annual-rate values
↳ Fetched TOTALSLAR values: May 2026 -0.04, Apr 2026 4.87, Mar 2026 5.35, Feb 2026 1.70, Jan 2026 1.05; units are percent change at annual rate, seasonally adjusted annual rate, monthly, last updated 2026-07-08 2:01 PM CDT.
▸ Reported tool use: fred.lookupmodel report
FRED component lookup for latest revolving and nonrevolving annual-rate values
↳ Fetched component values: revolving credit annual rate May 2026 -4.71, Apr 2026 10.36, Mar 2026 9.66; nonrevolving credit annual rate May 2026 1.61, Apr 2026 2.93, Mar 2026 3.84.
▸ Reported tool use: fred.lookupmodel report
FRED flow lookup for total consumer credit monthly-rate dollars
↳ Fetched total consumer credit flow values: May 2026 -182.45 million dollars monthly rate, Apr 2026 20822.88 million, Mar 2026 22786.34 million, Feb 2026 7249.04 million, Jan 2026 4454.26 million.

Reference class and base rate: for the same TOTALSLAR variant, the 2024-01 through 2026-05 fetched values average about 2.14 percent annualized. The most recent five values average about 2.59, but May's -0.04 was a sharp reversal after March-April strength, so I use a base rate near 2.1 and only a small rebound adjustment.

Prior/update/interval: persistence/base-rate prior = 2.14 from the 29 monthly TOTALSLAR observations from 2024-01 through 2026-05; this simple recent-history time-series model is used without a richer structural model because the evidence set is recent monthly annualized first-print history. Adjustment components are +0.2 for rebound from May's revolving-credit drag, -0.1 for still-tight consumer-credit conditions, and roughly 0.0 for nonrevolving steadiness, giving point 2.2. Interval method uses realized dispersion of those same annualized change-rate values: sigma = 1.71; 1.28*sigma = 2.19, rounded and modestly widened to a 2.4-point half-width because the May-to-June first print can swing with revolving credit, implying about -0.2 to 4.6.

Upside risk: a rebound in revolving balances after May's -4.71 revolving annual rate plus steady nonrevolving growth would land above the interval if total credit re-accelerates past about 4.6 percent annualized. Downside risk: another revolving contraction or auto/student nonrevolving weakness would land below the interval if the total annual rate is more negative than about -0.2. An outside the interval outcome is plausible mainly through unusually large revolving-card paydown or unusually strong June borrowing.

Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by tying mechanical resolution to the ledger ALFRED/FRED TOTALSLAR first-vintage CSV while keeping Federal Reserve G.19 as the underlying official agency source; accepted adding ALFRED to sourceContext; accepted clarifying that the prior is a simple recent-history persistence/base-rate model.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
+2.2%[-0.2% · +4.6%]
Target metadata

Data point: fed.g19.consumer_credit_total_annual_rate.2026_06.first_print

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