thesisPrototype

Government data

US Core CPI MoM, Aug. 2026

What will the BLS first print report for seasonally adjusted CPI-U all items less food and energy month-over-month percent change in August 2026?

Overdue · was due Sep 11, 2026

This target was registered with a generic source link rather than a resolver binding, and a registration cannot be changed. The resolver will not substitute a different route to the number.

REGISTERED_WITHOUT_EXECUTOR · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

+0.2%
+0.1%–+0.4%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%-0.2%+0.2%+0.6%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (+0.1%–+0.4%). Dashed line: point estimate (+0.2%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§US core CPI-U month-over-month forecast for August 2026 first print

Framing and exact resolver: this is CPI-U U.S. city average, all items less food and energy, seasonally adjusted, percent change from the preceding month for August 2026. The ledger window is 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-16; the BLS CPI release calendar gives the concrete August 2026 CPI release date as September 11, 2026 at 08:30 ET, which is inside that window, so I use 2026-09-11 as the resolution date.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the BLS CPI release schedule page for the August 2026 reference month.
↳ Fetched official schedule: August 2026 Consumer Price Index release date is Sep. 11, 2026 and release time is 08:30 AM; July 2026 is Aug. 12, 2026 at 08:30 AM.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read the current BLS CPI news release for June 2026 and Table A.
↳ Fetched Table A core CPI-U seasonally adjusted monthly changes: Dec. 2025 0.2, Jan. 2026 0.3, Feb. 2026 0.2, Mar. 2026 0.2, Apr. 2026 0.4, May 2026 0.2, Jun. 2026 0.0; 12-month core CPI through Jun. 2026 was 2.6.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read the BLS June 2026 release narrative for component momentum.
↳ Fetched June 2026 details: all items less food and energy was 0.0; shelter rose 0.1; owners' equivalent rent rose 0.2; rent rose 0.1; lodging away from home fell 2.3; motor vehicle insurance fell 2.0; communication fell 1.5; apparel fell 0.6; used cars and trucks fell 0.2.

Reference class and base rate: for this change-flow target I anchor on the recent official BLS core CPI-U SA monthly changes themselves. The seven-month reference class average from Dec. 2025 through Jun. 2026 is 1.5 / 7 = 0.214 percent, and the 12-month core rate of 2.6 percent is consistent with a monthly pace near 0.21 percent.

The target is the seasonally adjusted CPI-U core variant, not NSA CPI, chained CPI, all-items CPI, or a later revised seasonal-adjustment vintage; all anchors above are from the same BLS CPI-U core seasonally adjusted Table A variant except the separately labeled 12-month core context.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior is the recent BLS Table A reference class, Dec. 2025-Jun. 2026 core monthly values [0.2, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.4, 0.2, 0.0], mean 0.214. No separate formal time-series model was used because the short same-variant official Table A persistence prior is transparent and directly matched to this first-print monthly-change target. Adjustment components: +0.04 for mean reversion after June's unusually soft 0.0 and several one-off category declines, -0.02 for shelter cooling to 0.1 and soft core goods, net point about 0.24. Interval method uses the sample dispersion of those fetched monthly change values: sigma = 0.12, so 1.28*sigma = 0.15. Applying a roughly symmetric 80% band around 0.24 gives 0.24 - 0.16 = 0.08 and 0.24 + 0.16 = 0.40.

Counter-considerations: upside risk is a rebound in motor vehicle insurance, lodging, communication, or tariff-sensitive core goods that would land above the interval if August core runs over 0.40. Downside risk is another month of shelter deceleration plus falling medical care, apparel, or used vehicles that would land below the interval if August core is under 0.08. An outside the interval outcome is most likely from broad services reacceleration or a second unusually weak one-off month.

Review disposition: accepted the reviewer suggestions to state that the prior is a transparent short BLS Table A persistence prior rather than a separate formal model, and to note that the verified 2026-09-11 BLS release date falls inside the ledger expectedReleaseWindow.

Key drivers

  • June core CPI zero looks partly one-off and likely mean-reverts
  • Shelter slowed to 0.1 percent in June, limiting upside
  • Core goods and vehicle categories were soft in June
  • Services ex-energy were flat in June after 0.3 percent in May
  • Tariff or import-cost pass-through remains an upside risk

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index news release
Resolution date
September 11, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first BLS Consumer Price Index news release print for August 2026, Table A, CPI-U U.S. city average, seasonally adjusted percent change from preceding month for all items less food and energy, in percent, using the initially published value and not later seasonal-factor revisions.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.5.7

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is publishable with one minor clarification recommended around the model prior; resolver, first-print rule, interval math, tails, and JSON fields are coherent.

  • info optional_suggestion: Add one sentence explicitly stating that no separate formal time-series model was used beyond the short BLS Table A persistence prior, or briefly describe why that prior is preferred for this cell.
  • info optional_suggestion: Consider noting that the exact 2026-09-11 release date is inside the ledger expectedReleaseWindow of 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-16.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the reviewer suggestions to state that the prior is a transparent short BLS Table A persistence prior rather than a separate formal model, and to note that the verified 2026-09-11 BLS release date falls inside the ledger expectedReleaseWindow.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the reviewer suggestions to state that the prior is a transparent short BLS Table A persistence prior rather than a separate formal model, and to note that the verified 2026-09-11 BLS release date falls inside the ledger expectedReleaseWindow.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§US core CPI-U month-over-month forecast for August 2026 first print

Framing and exact resolver: this is CPI-U U.S. city average, all items less food and energy, seasonally adjusted, percent change from the preceding month for August 2026. The ledger window is 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-16; the BLS CPI release calendar gives the concrete August 2026 CPI release date as September 11, 2026 at 08:30 ET, which is inside that window, so I use 2026-09-11 as the resolution date.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the BLS CPI release schedule page for the August 2026 reference month.
↳ Fetched official schedule: August 2026 Consumer Price Index release date is Sep. 11, 2026 and release time is 08:30 AM; July 2026 is Aug. 12, 2026 at 08:30 AM.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read the current BLS CPI news release for June 2026 and Table A.
↳ Fetched Table A core CPI-U seasonally adjusted monthly changes: Dec. 2025 0.2, Jan. 2026 0.3, Feb. 2026 0.2, Mar. 2026 0.2, Apr. 2026 0.4, May 2026 0.2, Jun. 2026 0.0; 12-month core CPI through Jun. 2026 was 2.6.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read the BLS June 2026 release narrative for component momentum.
↳ Fetched June 2026 details: all items less food and energy was 0.0; shelter rose 0.1; owners' equivalent rent rose 0.2; rent rose 0.1; lodging away from home fell 2.3; motor vehicle insurance fell 2.0; communication fell 1.5; apparel fell 0.6; used cars and trucks fell 0.2.

Reference class and base rate: for this change-flow target I anchor on the recent official BLS core CPI-U SA monthly changes themselves. The seven-month reference class average from Dec. 2025 through Jun. 2026 is 1.5 / 7 = 0.214 percent, and the 12-month core rate of 2.6 percent is consistent with a monthly pace near 0.21 percent.

The target is the seasonally adjusted CPI-U core variant, not NSA CPI, chained CPI, all-items CPI, or a later revised seasonal-adjustment vintage; all anchors above are from the same BLS CPI-U core seasonally adjusted Table A variant except the separately labeled 12-month core context.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior is the recent BLS Table A reference class, Dec. 2025-Jun. 2026 core monthly values [0.2, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2, 0.4, 0.2, 0.0], mean 0.214. No separate formal time-series model was used because the short same-variant official Table A persistence prior is transparent and directly matched to this first-print monthly-change target. Adjustment components: +0.04 for mean reversion after June's unusually soft 0.0 and several one-off category declines, -0.02 for shelter cooling to 0.1 and soft core goods, net point about 0.24. Interval method uses the sample dispersion of those fetched monthly change values: sigma = 0.12, so 1.28*sigma = 0.15. Applying a roughly symmetric 80% band around 0.24 gives 0.24 - 0.16 = 0.08 and 0.24 + 0.16 = 0.40.

Counter-considerations: upside risk is a rebound in motor vehicle insurance, lodging, communication, or tariff-sensitive core goods that would land above the interval if August core runs over 0.40. Downside risk is another month of shelter deceleration plus falling medical care, apparel, or used vehicles that would land below the interval if August core is under 0.08. An outside the interval outcome is most likely from broad services reacceleration or a second unusually weak one-off month.

Review disposition: accepted the reviewer suggestions to state that the prior is a transparent short BLS Table A persistence prior rather than a separate formal model, and to note that the verified 2026-09-11 BLS release date falls inside the ledger expectedReleaseWindow.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
+0.2%[+0.1% · +0.4%]
Target metadata

Data point: bls.cpi.u.core_mom.august_2026.first_print

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