thesisPrototype

Government data

US Core PCE MoM, Aug 2026

What will the first-print seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in the BEA PCE price index excluding food and energy be for August 2026?

Overdue · was due Sep 30, 2026

This target was registered with a generic source link rather than a resolver binding, and a registration cannot be changed. The resolver will not substitute a different route to the number.

REGISTERED_WITHOUT_EXECUTOR · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

+0.3%
+0.1%–+0.4%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%-0.1%+0.3%+0.6%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (+0.1%–+0.4%). Dashed line: point estimate (+0.3%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§US core PCE month-over-month forecast for August 2026

The target is the BEA PCE price index excluding food and energy, seasonally adjusted, percent change from the preceding month, for August 2026. All historical anchors below use that same core PCE MoM SA variant, not headline PCE, CPI, market-based PCE, year-over-year inflation, or later revised vintages.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the BEA full release schedule and BEA 26-34 schedule node for the August 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release.
↳ BEA schedule fetched: Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026 is scheduled for September 30, 2026 at 8:30 AM; the preceding July 2026 PIO release is scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 8:30 AM.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched recent BEA Personal Income and Outlays releases for core PCE percent change from preceding month.
↳ BEA fetched core PCE MoM SA values: January 2026 0.4, February 2026 0.4, March 2026 0.3, April 2026 0.3, May 2026 0.3, June 2026 0.1; June headline PCE was -0.1 and June core PCE year-over-year was 3.3.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the BLS June 2026 CPI release for contemporaneous price momentum relevant to PCE source data.
↳ BLS fetched June 2026 values: CPI-U all items -0.4 month-over-month, all items less food and energy 0.0, shelter 0.1, owners' equivalent rent 0.2, energy -5.7, and 12-month core CPI 2.6.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked BEA's 2026 annual update notice because the August 2026 first print is scheduled on the same day as the annual update.
↳ BEA fetched annual-update timing: 2026 annual updates begin September 30, 2026; the National Economic Accounts annual update open revision period is first quarter 2021 through first quarter 2026; the reference year remains 2017.

Reference class/base rate: the Jan-Jun 2026 official first-print core PCE MoM SA sample has values 0.4, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, and 0.1, with a mean base rate of 0.30 percent growth. The latest June print is below that base rate, but a two-month-ahead August forecast should not fully chase one soft month.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior is the Jan-Jun 2026 BEA first-print mean of 0.30 from the historical sample 0.4, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.1; adjustment components are -0.02 for June core CPI at 0.0 and soft shelter at 0.1, -0.02 for latest BEA core PCE momentum at 0.1, and +0.01 for sticky services and two-month mean reversion, giving 0.30 - 0.02 - 0.02 + 0.01 = 0.27. Interval method uses realized dispersion of the fetched core PCE MoM values themselves: sample sigma = 0.11 percentage point, so 1.28*sigma = 0.14; final 80% bounds are 0.27 - 0.14 = 0.13 and 0.27 + 0.14 = 0.41. This sigma estimate is fragile because it uses only six one-decimal first-print observations.

Upside risk is that July and August services prices rebound after June's flat CPI core reading, pushing core PCE to 0.4 or higher; downside risk is another month of weak medical, apparel, vehicles, or communication prices plus soft shelter, which would land below the interval near 0.1 or less. An outside the interval high outcome would likely require broad services acceleration rather than energy, because food and energy are excluded.

Review disposition: accepted the suggestion to note the six-observation sigma fragility and aligned the resolutionSourceUrl with the registered BEA core PCE series page; no required fixes were raised.

Key drivers

  • recent core PCE first prints slowed from 0.3-0.4 to 0.1 in June
  • June core CPI was flat while shelter rose only 0.1
  • two-month horizon leaves room for July and August services rebound
  • September 30 BEA annual update raises first-print process risk but not the resolver

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026
Resolution date
September 30, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first official BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for August 2026, using the seasonally adjusted percent change from the preceding month for the PCE price index excluding food and energy. Use the initially published one-decimal percent value for the first print; ignore later revisions or annual-update back revisions after that first print.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.5.7

pre-submit review · completed

The draft is publication-ready under the rubric, with clear resolver handling, prior/update/interval math, concrete tails, and no evident leakage or unit ambiguity.

  • info optional_suggestion: Consider noting that the interval is based on only six one-decimal first-print observations, so the realized-sigma estimate is fragile.
  • info optional_suggestion: Consider aligning the resolutionSourceUrl with the canonical BEA data page if the publication pipeline expects the registered sourceBinding URL rather than the future release URL.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the suggestion to note the six-observation sigma fragility and aligned the resolutionSourceUrl with the registered BEA core PCE series page; no required fixes were raised.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the suggestion to note the six-observation sigma fragility and aligned the resolutionSourceUrl with the registered BEA core PCE series page; no required fixes were raised.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§US core PCE month-over-month forecast for August 2026

The target is the BEA PCE price index excluding food and energy, seasonally adjusted, percent change from the preceding month, for August 2026. All historical anchors below use that same core PCE MoM SA variant, not headline PCE, CPI, market-based PCE, year-over-year inflation, or later revised vintages.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the BEA full release schedule and BEA 26-34 schedule node for the August 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release.
↳ BEA schedule fetched: Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026 is scheduled for September 30, 2026 at 8:30 AM; the preceding July 2026 PIO release is scheduled for August 26, 2026 at 8:30 AM.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched recent BEA Personal Income and Outlays releases for core PCE percent change from preceding month.
↳ BEA fetched core PCE MoM SA values: January 2026 0.4, February 2026 0.4, March 2026 0.3, April 2026 0.3, May 2026 0.3, June 2026 0.1; June headline PCE was -0.1 and June core PCE year-over-year was 3.3.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the BLS June 2026 CPI release for contemporaneous price momentum relevant to PCE source data.
↳ BLS fetched June 2026 values: CPI-U all items -0.4 month-over-month, all items less food and energy 0.0, shelter 0.1, owners' equivalent rent 0.2, energy -5.7, and 12-month core CPI 2.6.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked BEA's 2026 annual update notice because the August 2026 first print is scheduled on the same day as the annual update.
↳ BEA fetched annual-update timing: 2026 annual updates begin September 30, 2026; the National Economic Accounts annual update open revision period is first quarter 2021 through first quarter 2026; the reference year remains 2017.

Reference class/base rate: the Jan-Jun 2026 official first-print core PCE MoM SA sample has values 0.4, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, and 0.1, with a mean base rate of 0.30 percent growth. The latest June print is below that base rate, but a two-month-ahead August forecast should not fully chase one soft month.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior is the Jan-Jun 2026 BEA first-print mean of 0.30 from the historical sample 0.4, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.1; adjustment components are -0.02 for June core CPI at 0.0 and soft shelter at 0.1, -0.02 for latest BEA core PCE momentum at 0.1, and +0.01 for sticky services and two-month mean reversion, giving 0.30 - 0.02 - 0.02 + 0.01 = 0.27. Interval method uses realized dispersion of the fetched core PCE MoM values themselves: sample sigma = 0.11 percentage point, so 1.28*sigma = 0.14; final 80% bounds are 0.27 - 0.14 = 0.13 and 0.27 + 0.14 = 0.41. This sigma estimate is fragile because it uses only six one-decimal first-print observations.

Upside risk is that July and August services prices rebound after June's flat CPI core reading, pushing core PCE to 0.4 or higher; downside risk is another month of weak medical, apparel, vehicles, or communication prices plus soft shelter, which would land below the interval near 0.1 or less. An outside the interval high outcome would likely require broad services acceleration rather than energy, because food and energy are excluded.

Review disposition: accepted the suggestion to note the six-observation sigma fragility and aligned the resolutionSourceUrl with the registered BEA core PCE series page; no required fixes were raised.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
+0.3%[+0.1% · +0.4%]
Target metadata

Data point: us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-08

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