thesisPrototype

Government data

US Core PCE MoM, July 2026

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis core personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, seasonally adjusted percent change from the preceding month, July 2026 first print.

Overdue · was due Aug 26, 2026

The resolver routes this target's reference, but its last run printed no line naming this target.

NO_REPORT · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

+0.3%
+0.2%–+0.4%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%-0.0%+0.3%+0.6%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (+0.2%–+0.4%). Dashed line: point estimate (+0.3%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§US core PCE month-over-month forecast for July 2026 first print

Framing and exact resolver: this targets the BEA seasonally adjusted PCE price index excluding food and energy, July 2026, monthly percent change from the preceding month, first print. The relevant BEA account code visible through the public FRED mirror is DPCCRG, and the BEA linked monthly table is Table 2.8.7, Percent Change From Preceding Period in Prices for Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product. FRED is used only as a BEA history mirror, not as the resolver.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked BEA release schedule for the July 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release date.
↳ BEA schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026 on August 26, 2026 at 8:30 AM; the same schedule page was last modified on 7/10/26.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked BEA core PCE exact series page for recent published year-over-year values and release metadata.
↳ BEA exact series page reports core PCE price index excluding food and energy year-over-year values: May 2026 +3.4%, April 2026 +3.3%, March 2026 +3.3%, February 2026 +3.0%; current release June 25, 2026 and next release July 30, 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: fred.lookupmodel report
Checked FRED PCEPILFE, a public mirror whose source is the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, for recent seasonally adjusted index values used to calculate same-variant monthly changes.
↳ PCEPILFE index values, seasonally adjusted, 2017=100: May 2026 130.082, Apr 2026 129.667, Mar 2026 129.343, Feb 2026 128.961, Jan 2026 128.455; updated Jun 25, 2026 7:43 AM CDT.
▸ Reported tool use: calculatormodel report
Converted recent BEA/FRED core PCE index values into monthly percent changes.
↳ Computed monthly percent changes: Feb 2026 0.3939122649955218, Mar 2026 0.29621358395170994, Apr 2026 0.25049674122294974, May 2026 0.3200505911295837; four-month mean 0.3151682953249413.

Reference class/base rate: because this is a change-rate target, I use recent same-variant seasonally adjusted core PCE monthly percent changes as the base rate rather than year-over-year values or headline PCE. The four observed monthly changes average about 0.315 percent, while the latest BEA page shows the year-over-year rate rising to 3.4 percent, so the outside view is elevated but not clearly accelerating month by month.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior from recent same-variant BEA/FRED PCEPILFE monthly changes is 0.315 percent using Feb-May 2026. Adjustment components: -0.020 for mild mean reversion from the elevated Feb-May run toward a still-firm but less hot July print, +0.010 for sticky core services and 3.4 percent year-over-year core PCE, -0.005 because the target excludes direct food and energy pass-through, giving 0.300 before display rounding and a final point of 0.29 after allowing for BEA one-decimal style publication risk around the unrounded estimate. Interval method uses the values themselves for this change-rate series: sigma = 0.060 from the four computed monthly changes; 1.28*sigma = 0.077. Because the four-point sample is thin and July is two releases ahead of the latest fetched May value, I widen the half-width to about 0.12, so 0.29 +/- 0.12 gives [0.17, 0.41].

Counter-considerations: upside risk is a July rebound in core services, portfolio-management fees, medical services, or tariff-sensitive goods that would land above the interval near 0.42 percent or higher. Downside risk is a broad goods deflation month plus cooler rent and medical-service readings that would land below the interval near 0.16 percent or lower. A large one-month methodology or seasonal-factor surprise would be outside the interval, but I do not treat that as the central case.

Review disposition: accepted the interval critique by widening beyond the four-month realized-volatility half-width for two-release-ahead uncertainty, accepted the prior-ordering critique by stating the persistence base rate before adjustments, and accepted the mean-reversion critique by reducing the downward adjustment from the draft.

Key drivers

  • Recent same-variant core PCE monthly index changes imply a roughly 0.315 percent short-run base rate.
  • The BEA exact series page shows year-over-year core PCE inflation at 3.4 percent in May 2026, up from 3.3 percent in April and March.
  • The July target is still two monthly releases ahead of the latest fetched May value, so interval width is increased beyond the four-point realized-volatility estimate.
  • Core PCE excludes direct food and energy price swings, leaving services, rents, medical care, financial services, and core goods as the main drivers.

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays
Resolution date
August 26, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first BEA publication of the seasonally adjusted monthly percent change from the preceding month for the PCE price index excluding food and energy for July 2026, as published in Personal Income and Outlays / NIPA Table 2.8.7 or its linked official BEA release table. Use the first print only; do not revise for later annual, benchmark, or routine revisions. Record in percent growth, matching BEA rounding where the first print is displayed.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · v2.2.0

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is mostly publishable, but the interval support is too thin and the prior/update presentation should be tightened before publication.

  • warning interval: The 80% interval is based on the standard deviation of only four recent monthly changes, which is too small a realized-volatility sample for a two-month-ahead first-print forecast.
  • warning prior_update_interval: The compact prior/update/interval step exists, but the base-rate prior is introduced after current evidence/tool results rather than cleanly before inside-view updates.
  • warning update: The -0.04 mean-reversion adjustment is larger than the cited evidence clearly supports, since May's 0.320 is only slightly above the 0.315 four-month average and April's softer value is already included in that average.
  • info optional_suggestion: State explicitly that FRED is used only as a BEA history mirror, not as the resolver.
  • info optional_suggestion: Consider naming the longer historical sample window if used for volatility, such as pre-pandemic, post-2021, or trailing 24-60 months.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the interval critique by widening beyond the four-month realized-volatility half-width for two-release-ahead uncertainty, accepted the prior-ordering critique by stating the persistence base rate before adjustments, and accepted the mean-reversion critique by reducing the downward adjustment from the draft.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the interval critique by widening beyond the four-month realized-volatility half-width for two-release-ahead uncertainty, accepted the prior-ordering critique by stating the persistence base rate before adjustments, and accepted the mean-reversion critique by reducing the downward adjustment from the draft.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the interval critique by widening beyond the four-month realized-volatility half-width for two-release-ahead uncertainty, accepted the prior-ordering critique by stating the persistence base rate before adjustments, and accepted the mean-reversion critique by reducing the downward adjustment from the draft.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the interval critique by widening beyond the four-month realized-volatility half-width for two-release-ahead uncertainty, accepted the prior-ordering critique by stating the persistence base rate before adjustments, and accepted the mean-reversion critique by reducing the downward adjustment from the draft.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the interval critique by widening beyond the four-month realized-volatility half-width for two-release-ahead uncertainty, accepted the prior-ordering critique by stating the persistence base rate before adjustments, and accepted the mean-reversion critique by reducing the downward adjustment from the draft.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§US core PCE month-over-month forecast for July 2026 first print

Framing and exact resolver: this targets the BEA seasonally adjusted PCE price index excluding food and energy, July 2026, monthly percent change from the preceding month, first print. The relevant BEA account code visible through the public FRED mirror is DPCCRG, and the BEA linked monthly table is Table 2.8.7, Percent Change From Preceding Period in Prices for Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product. FRED is used only as a BEA history mirror, not as the resolver.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked BEA release schedule for the July 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release date.
↳ BEA schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026 on August 26, 2026 at 8:30 AM; the same schedule page was last modified on 7/10/26.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked BEA core PCE exact series page for recent published year-over-year values and release metadata.
↳ BEA exact series page reports core PCE price index excluding food and energy year-over-year values: May 2026 +3.4%, April 2026 +3.3%, March 2026 +3.3%, February 2026 +3.0%; current release June 25, 2026 and next release July 30, 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: fred.lookupmodel report
Checked FRED PCEPILFE, a public mirror whose source is the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, for recent seasonally adjusted index values used to calculate same-variant monthly changes.
↳ PCEPILFE index values, seasonally adjusted, 2017=100: May 2026 130.082, Apr 2026 129.667, Mar 2026 129.343, Feb 2026 128.961, Jan 2026 128.455; updated Jun 25, 2026 7:43 AM CDT.
▸ Reported tool use: calculatormodel report
Converted recent BEA/FRED core PCE index values into monthly percent changes.
↳ Computed monthly percent changes: Feb 2026 0.3939122649955218, Mar 2026 0.29621358395170994, Apr 2026 0.25049674122294974, May 2026 0.3200505911295837; four-month mean 0.3151682953249413.

Reference class/base rate: because this is a change-rate target, I use recent same-variant seasonally adjusted core PCE monthly percent changes as the base rate rather than year-over-year values or headline PCE. The four observed monthly changes average about 0.315 percent, while the latest BEA page shows the year-over-year rate rising to 3.4 percent, so the outside view is elevated but not clearly accelerating month by month.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior from recent same-variant BEA/FRED PCEPILFE monthly changes is 0.315 percent using Feb-May 2026. Adjustment components: -0.020 for mild mean reversion from the elevated Feb-May run toward a still-firm but less hot July print, +0.010 for sticky core services and 3.4 percent year-over-year core PCE, -0.005 because the target excludes direct food and energy pass-through, giving 0.300 before display rounding and a final point of 0.29 after allowing for BEA one-decimal style publication risk around the unrounded estimate. Interval method uses the values themselves for this change-rate series: sigma = 0.060 from the four computed monthly changes; 1.28*sigma = 0.077. Because the four-point sample is thin and July is two releases ahead of the latest fetched May value, I widen the half-width to about 0.12, so 0.29 +/- 0.12 gives [0.17, 0.41].

Counter-considerations: upside risk is a July rebound in core services, portfolio-management fees, medical services, or tariff-sensitive goods that would land above the interval near 0.42 percent or higher. Downside risk is a broad goods deflation month plus cooler rent and medical-service readings that would land below the interval near 0.16 percent or lower. A large one-month methodology or seasonal-factor surprise would be outside the interval, but I do not treat that as the central case.

Review disposition: accepted the interval critique by widening beyond the four-month realized-volatility half-width for two-release-ahead uncertainty, accepted the prior-ordering critique by stating the persistence base rate before adjustments, and accepted the mean-reversion critique by reducing the downward adjustment from the draft.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
+0.3%[+0.2% · +0.4%]
Target metadata

Data point: us.bea.core_pce.mom_sa.2026-07

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