thesisPrototype

Government data

US CPI services ex shelter MoM, July 2026

What will the first-print month-over-month percent growth be for the BLS CPI-U Services Less Rent of Shelter, U.S. city average, seasonally adjusted series CUSR0000SASL2RS in July 2026?

Forecast

+0.3%
+0.1%–+0.5%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%-0.3%+0.3%+0.9%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (+0.1%–+0.5%). Dashed line: point estimate (+0.3%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Observed outcomeinside 80% interval
actual
+0.2%
forecast
+0.3% with 80% interval [+0.1%, +0.5%]
error
-0.1% · absolute +0.1%
cdf score
CRPS 0.066 · PIT 0.35
source
bls_cpi Consumer Price Index, U.S. city average, monthly seasonally adjusted

First print for 2026-07 captured from https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/alfredgraph.csv?id=CUSR0000SASL2RS&vintage_date=2026-08-12 on the official release date named by the cell's resolver.

Analysis

§US CPI-U Services Less Rent of Shelter MoM, July 2026 first print

Framing and exact resolver: the target is the July 2026 first-print month-over-month percent growth for BLS CPI-U Services Less Rent of Shelter, U.S. city average, seasonally adjusted, series CUSR0000SASL2RS. The ledger sourceBinding points to ALFRED series CUSR0000SASL2RS and targetUnit percent_growth; I keep the ledger target and compute MoM percent growth from the first-print CUSR0000SASL2RS seasonally adjusted index values.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS CPI release schedule for 2026, Consumer Price Index release dates
↳ The official BLS CPI schedule lists July 2026 CPI for release on Aug. 12, 2026 at 08:30 AM; it also lists June 2026 on Jul. 14, 2026 at 08:30 AM and August 2026 on Sep. 11, 2026 at 08:30 AM.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS June 2026 CPI news release context
↳ The June 2026 BLS CPI release reported all items -0.4 percent MoM, all items less food and energy 0.0 percent MoM, services less energy services 0.0 percent MoM, shelter 0.1 percent MoM, transportation services -0.3 percent MoM, medical care services -0.1 percent MoM, motor vehicle insurance -2.0 percent MoM, and communication -1.5 percent MoM.
▸ Reported tool use: alfred.lookupmodel report
ALFRED/FRED mirror for BLS series CUSR0000SASL2RS latest observations
↳ The public ALFRED/FRED mirror sourced to BLS shows CUSR0000SASL2RS index values of Feb. 2026 440.321, Mar. 2026 441.793, Apr. 2026 443.493, May 2026 445.925, and Jun. 2026 445.144, updated Jul. 14, 2026 8:10 AM CDT, with next release date Aug. 12, 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: history.calcmodel report
Compute recent adjacent MoM percent changes from fetched CUSR0000SASL2RS index values
↳ Computed adjacent MoM changes include Jul. 2025 0.347 percent, Aug. 2025 0.190 percent, Sep. 2025 0.191 percent, Dec. 2025 0.231 percent, Jan. 2026 0.348 percent, Feb. 2026 0.282 percent, Mar. 2026 0.334 percent, Apr. 2026 0.385 percent, May 2026 0.548 percent, and Jun. 2026 -0.175 percent; the gap around Oct. 2025 was excluded because the fetched table showed a missing Oct. 2025 value.

Base rate/reference class: the recent adjacent-change reference class centers near 0.27 percent per month for services less rent of shelter. I use that as the persistence prior, then adjust slightly upward from June's -0.175 percent because the June release identified unusually weak categories such as motor vehicle insurance and communication, while keeping the adjustment small because broad core services momentum also cooled.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior is the mean of the 10 fetched adjacent MoM changes from Jul. 2025-Sep. 2025 and Dec. 2025-Jun. 2026, about 0.268 percent; adjustment components are +0.07 for partial rebound from June one-off drags and -0.05 for soft June core-services breadth, giving 0.268 + 0.07 - 0.05 = 0.288, rounded to a 0.29 point forecast. Interval method uses the short 10-observation realized dispersion sample of those MoM percent changes: sigma = 0.188 percentage points, so the 80 percent half-width is about 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.188 = 0.241 percentage points; 0.29 +/- 0.24 gives 0.05 to 0.53.

Counter-considerations: upside risk is a sharp rebound in motor vehicle insurance, airline fares, or energy services that would land above the interval; downside risk is continued declines in communication, insurance, medical care services, or transportation services that would keep July near zero or outside the interval below 0.05 percent.

Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSourceUrl with the canonical ALFRED ledger URL and making the MoM transformation from first-print CUSR0000SASL2RS index values explicit; accepted the optional ALFRED source-context and short-sample uncertainty clarification.

Key drivers

  • recent services-ex-shelter trend near 0.27 percent per month before June weakness
  • June one-off drags from motor vehicle insurance and communication likely partially mean-revert
  • core services and shelter cooled in June, limiting upside
  • volatile transportation services and energy services keep the interval wide

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
ALFRED first-print vintage mirror of the official BLS CPI series CUSR0000SASL2RS
Resolved
August 12, 2026
Resolution rule
Resolve to the July 2026 first official vintage available through the ledger-bound ALFRED-FRED adapter for BLS CPI-U Services Less Rent of Shelter, U.S. city average, seasonally adjusted, series CUSR0000SASL2RS, which mirrors the official BLS series. Compute the month-over-month percent growth from the first-print June 2026 and July 2026 CUSR0000SASL2RS index values as 100*(July index/June index - 1), rounded to two decimals for the forecast cell; do not use later revised vintages.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.4.0

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is mostly publication-ready methodologically, but its resolver/source fields do not match the canonical ledger sourceBinding.

  • blocking resolver: The draft JSON uses BLS/data.bls.gov as resolutionSourceUrl, while the ledger contract binds resolution to the ALFRED-FRED adapter, allowed host alfred.stlouisfed.org, and sourceUrl https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/alfredgraph.csv?id=CUSR0000SASL2RS.
  • warning coherence: The reasoning correctly notes a ledger ambiguity between the level index source and percent_growth target, but the published resolver fields should make the MoM transformation explicit in the same terms as the target contract.
  • info optional_suggestion: Replace the FRED sourceContext URL with the ALFRED ledger URL or add ALFRED alongside official BLS context.
  • info optional_suggestion: State that the interval uses a short 10-observation realized-volatility sample so readers understand the sample-size limitation.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSourceUrl with the canonical ALFRED ledger URL and making the MoM transformation from first-print CUSR0000SASL2RS index values explicit; accepted the optional ALFRED source-context and short-sample uncertainty clarification.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSourceUrl with the canonical ALFRED ledger URL and making the MoM transformation from first-print CUSR0000SASL2RS index values explicit; accepted the optional ALFRED source-context and short-sample uncertainty clarification.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSourceUrl with the canonical ALFRED ledger URL and making the MoM transformation from first-print CUSR0000SASL2RS index values explicit; accepted the optional ALFRED source-context and short-sample uncertainty clarification.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSourceUrl with the canonical ALFRED ledger URL and making the MoM transformation from first-print CUSR0000SASL2RS index values explicit; accepted the optional ALFRED source-context and short-sample uncertainty clarification.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§US CPI-U Services Less Rent of Shelter MoM, July 2026 first print

Framing and exact resolver: the target is the July 2026 first-print month-over-month percent growth for BLS CPI-U Services Less Rent of Shelter, U.S. city average, seasonally adjusted, series CUSR0000SASL2RS. The ledger sourceBinding points to ALFRED series CUSR0000SASL2RS and targetUnit percent_growth; I keep the ledger target and compute MoM percent growth from the first-print CUSR0000SASL2RS seasonally adjusted index values.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS CPI release schedule for 2026, Consumer Price Index release dates
↳ The official BLS CPI schedule lists July 2026 CPI for release on Aug. 12, 2026 at 08:30 AM; it also lists June 2026 on Jul. 14, 2026 at 08:30 AM and August 2026 on Sep. 11, 2026 at 08:30 AM.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS June 2026 CPI news release context
↳ The June 2026 BLS CPI release reported all items -0.4 percent MoM, all items less food and energy 0.0 percent MoM, services less energy services 0.0 percent MoM, shelter 0.1 percent MoM, transportation services -0.3 percent MoM, medical care services -0.1 percent MoM, motor vehicle insurance -2.0 percent MoM, and communication -1.5 percent MoM.
▸ Reported tool use: alfred.lookupmodel report
ALFRED/FRED mirror for BLS series CUSR0000SASL2RS latest observations
↳ The public ALFRED/FRED mirror sourced to BLS shows CUSR0000SASL2RS index values of Feb. 2026 440.321, Mar. 2026 441.793, Apr. 2026 443.493, May 2026 445.925, and Jun. 2026 445.144, updated Jul. 14, 2026 8:10 AM CDT, with next release date Aug. 12, 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: history.calcmodel report
Compute recent adjacent MoM percent changes from fetched CUSR0000SASL2RS index values
↳ Computed adjacent MoM changes include Jul. 2025 0.347 percent, Aug. 2025 0.190 percent, Sep. 2025 0.191 percent, Dec. 2025 0.231 percent, Jan. 2026 0.348 percent, Feb. 2026 0.282 percent, Mar. 2026 0.334 percent, Apr. 2026 0.385 percent, May 2026 0.548 percent, and Jun. 2026 -0.175 percent; the gap around Oct. 2025 was excluded because the fetched table showed a missing Oct. 2025 value.

Base rate/reference class: the recent adjacent-change reference class centers near 0.27 percent per month for services less rent of shelter. I use that as the persistence prior, then adjust slightly upward from June's -0.175 percent because the June release identified unusually weak categories such as motor vehicle insurance and communication, while keeping the adjustment small because broad core services momentum also cooled.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior is the mean of the 10 fetched adjacent MoM changes from Jul. 2025-Sep. 2025 and Dec. 2025-Jun. 2026, about 0.268 percent; adjustment components are +0.07 for partial rebound from June one-off drags and -0.05 for soft June core-services breadth, giving 0.268 + 0.07 - 0.05 = 0.288, rounded to a 0.29 point forecast. Interval method uses the short 10-observation realized dispersion sample of those MoM percent changes: sigma = 0.188 percentage points, so the 80 percent half-width is about 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.188 = 0.241 percentage points; 0.29 +/- 0.24 gives 0.05 to 0.53.

Counter-considerations: upside risk is a sharp rebound in motor vehicle insurance, airline fares, or energy services that would land above the interval; downside risk is continued declines in communication, insurance, medical care services, or transportation services that would keep July near zero or outside the interval below 0.05 percent.

Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSourceUrl with the canonical ALFRED ledger URL and making the MoM transformation from first-print CUSR0000SASL2RS index values explicit; accepted the optional ALFRED source-context and short-sample uncertainty clarification.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
+0.3%[+0.1% · +0.5%]
Target metadata

Data point: bls.cpi.services_less_rent_shelter_mom.2026_07.first_print

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