thesisPrototype

Government data

DHS Title VI FY2026 award obligations

What will USAspending API v2 first report for FY2026 DHS Title VI award transaction obligations, filtered to the registered Treasury accounts and all registered prime award type codes, grouped by fiscal year?

Forecast

$24,800,000,000
$18,160,000,000–$31,440,000,000
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%$8,200,000,000$24,800,000,000$41,400,000,000Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval ($18,160,000,000–$31,440,000,000). Dashed line: point estimate ($24,800,000,000).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§Forecast for FY2026 DHS Title VI USAspending award transaction obligations

The resolver is the registered USAspending spending_over_time POST query, not a budget-account table: the resolving value is the FY2026 aggregated_amount for prime award transaction obligations across the registered DHS Treasury accounts 070-2025/2029-0530, 070-2025/2029-0532, 070-2025/2029-0509, 070-2025/2029-0510, 070-2025/2029-0413, and 070-0722. Public references sometimes describe 070-0722 as a 2025/2034 State Border Security Reinforcement Fund account; I keep the forecast tied to the registered 070-0722 target contract.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened USAspending API endpoint documentation and source endpoint metadata for /api/v2/search/spending_over_time/ and award update status.
↳ USAspending documents /api/v2/search/spending_over_time/ as POST; /api/v2/awards/last_updated/ returned last_updated = 08/07/2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked USAspending submission-period schedule endpoint for current official reporting cadence evidence.
↳ The official submission_periods endpoint showed the 2026-06-01 to 2026-06-30 period with submission_start_date 2026-07-21, submission_due_date 2026-07-31, and certification_due_date 2026-08-15; the registered FY2026 P12 target resolves at the conservative 2026-10-22 bound for the October first-print snapshot.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked USAspending federal spending guide for transaction-file interpretation.
↳ USAspending states Assistance_PrimeTransactions and Contracts_PrimeTransactions rows represent prime award transactions; the guide also lists FY filters from 2008 through 2026 on Advanced Search.
▸ Reported tool use: public.referencemodel report
Reviewed public OBBA-to-TAFS mapping and reported USAspending-derived obligations for the same DHS account family.
↳ The public analysis reported CBP had obligated $11.3 billion, equal to 17% of $64.7 billion OBBA CBP funding, as of December 2025; it also mapped 070-2025/2029-0530 and 070-2025/2029-0532 to CBP OBBA accounts and reported $64.8 billion in those TAFS as of September 2025.
▸ Reported tool use: public.referencemodel report
Reviewed public account mappings for non-CBP target accounts.
↳ The same mapping lists Sec. 90005(a) FEMA-administered state and local assistance at $2.58 billion, Sec. 90005(b)(3) State Border Security Reinforcement Fund at $10.00 billion for 070-2025/2034-0722, and FLETC at $0.75 billion for 070-2025/2029-0509 and 070-2025/2029-0510.
▸ Reported tool use: public.referencemodel report
Checked OpenOMB public apportionment references for the registered FEMA-related accounts.
↳ OpenOMB listed State Border Security Reinforcement Fund TAFS 070-0722 2025/2034 as FY2026 file 11523612 approved Jun 4 2026, and Federal Assistance FEMA TAFS 070-0413 with FY2026 files approved May 21 2026 and May 26 2026.

Base rate / reference class: this is a lumpy multiyear appropriation drawdown target. The best outside-view anchor is the already-observed CBP drawdown pace: $11.3 billion in obligations by December 2025 from a $64.7-$64.8 billion account family, with other registered accounts adding smaller but still material grant/reimbursement channels. I do not use a same-series time-series prior because the exact FY2026 Title VI registered-account snapshot is a new policy-funded flow, so earlier fiscal years are not comparable to the FY2026 first-print obligation level.

Prior/update/interval: base prior is the observed CBP drawdown scale, not a direct persistence forecast. Historical/reference sample is $11.3B already obligated on CBP OBBA accounts, $64.8B CBP authority, $10.0B State Border authority, $2.58B FEMA assistance authority, and $0.75B FLETC authority. Adjustment components are CBP awards 15.0B + State Border 6.5B + FEMA assistance 2.3B + FLETC 0.5B + other first-print timing/rounding 0.5B = 24.8B. Interval method is an explicit component-error model for this lumpy first-print flow: CBP procurement uncertainty 4.0B, State Border timing uncertainty 3.0B, FEMA grant uncertainty 0.8B, FLETC uncertainty 0.2B, USAspending first-print reporting-lag uncertainty 1.0B; sigma = sqrt(4.0^2 + 3.0^2 + 0.8^2 + 0.2^2 + 1.0^2) = 5.19B, and 1.28*sigma = 6.64B. Therefore 24.8B +/- 6.64B gives 18.16B to 31.44B.

Upside risk: rapid border-wall, screening-technology, or state reimbursement awards could add more than about $10B beyond the CBP base and push total obligations above 31.44B. Downside risk: procurement delays, low 070-0722 award execution, or October first-print reporting gaps could keep the CBP-plus-grants total below 18.16B, outside the interval.

Review disposition: accepted the critique that cross-sectional account amounts should not be treated as realized volatility; revised the Prior/update/interval step to separate the base prior, fetched reference amounts, additive forecast components, and an explicit component-error uncertainty model. Accepted the suggestion to clarify the 070-0722 versus 2025/2034 reference mismatch while preserving the registered target.

Key drivers

  • Large multiyear CBP procurement and construction balances available for FY2026 awards
  • State Border Security Reinforcement Fund can add lumpy state reimbursement obligations
  • FEMA-administered assistance likely contributes grant obligations but below the CBP construction component
  • First-print USAspending timing may miss some late-September agency submissions or corrections

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
USAspending API v2 advanced search spending over time
Resolution date
October 22, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first official USAspending API v2 /api/v2/search/spending_over_time/ response available on 2026-10-22 for fiscal_year=2026, spending_level=transactions, group=fiscal_year, the registered award_type_codes, and the registered DHS Treasury account components. Use results[time_period.fiscal_year=2026].aggregated_amount in dollars exactly as returned by the API; do not replace it with later corrected or revised USAspending values.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.5.7

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is broadly tied to the registered USAspending target, but the uncertainty method is not defensible because it treats component dollar levels as volatility.

  • blocking interval: The 80% interval is derived from the cross-sectional standard deviation of funding/account component amounts, not realized volatility, forecast error, reporting lag uncertainty, or an explicit uncertainty model.
  • warning prior_update_interval: The compact Prior/update/interval step names component amounts as the historical sample, but those are not a time-series or comparable forecast-error sample.
  • warning model_prior: A persistence prior is mentioned, but no time-series/model prior is actually used or explicitly ruled out for this lumpy first-print USAspending target.
  • info optional_suggestion: Clarify the apparent mismatch between the registered 070-0722 component and references to 070-2025/2034-0722 without changing the registered target.
  • info optional_suggestion: Make the tail scenarios more numeric by tying upside and downside cases to specific account families or reporting-delay mechanisms.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the critique that cross-sectional account amounts should not be treated as realized volatility; revised the Prior/update/interval step to separate the base prior, fetched reference amounts, additive forecast components, and an explicit component-error uncertainty model. Accepted the suggestion to clarify the 070-0722 versus 2025/2034 reference mismatch while preserving the registered target.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the critique that cross-sectional account amounts should not be treated as realized volatility; revised the Prior/update/interval step to separate the base prior, fetched reference amounts, additive forecast components, and an explicit component-error uncertainty model. Accepted the suggestion to clarify the 070-0722 versus 2025/2034 reference mismatch while preserving the registered target.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the critique that cross-sectional account amounts should not be treated as realized volatility; revised the Prior/update/interval step to separate the base prior, fetched reference amounts, additive forecast components, and an explicit component-error uncertainty model. Accepted the suggestion to clarify the 070-0722 versus 2025/2034 reference mismatch while preserving the registered target.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the critique that cross-sectional account amounts should not be treated as realized volatility; revised the Prior/update/interval step to separate the base prior, fetched reference amounts, additive forecast components, and an explicit component-error uncertainty model. Accepted the suggestion to clarify the 070-0722 versus 2025/2034 reference mismatch while preserving the registered target.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the critique that cross-sectional account amounts should not be treated as realized volatility; revised the Prior/update/interval step to separate the base prior, fetched reference amounts, additive forecast components, and an explicit component-error uncertainty model. Accepted the suggestion to clarify the 070-0722 versus 2025/2034 reference mismatch while preserving the registered target.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§Forecast for FY2026 DHS Title VI USAspending award transaction obligations

The resolver is the registered USAspending spending_over_time POST query, not a budget-account table: the resolving value is the FY2026 aggregated_amount for prime award transaction obligations across the registered DHS Treasury accounts 070-2025/2029-0530, 070-2025/2029-0532, 070-2025/2029-0509, 070-2025/2029-0510, 070-2025/2029-0413, and 070-0722. Public references sometimes describe 070-0722 as a 2025/2034 State Border Security Reinforcement Fund account; I keep the forecast tied to the registered 070-0722 target contract.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened USAspending API endpoint documentation and source endpoint metadata for /api/v2/search/spending_over_time/ and award update status.
↳ USAspending documents /api/v2/search/spending_over_time/ as POST; /api/v2/awards/last_updated/ returned last_updated = 08/07/2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked USAspending submission-period schedule endpoint for current official reporting cadence evidence.
↳ The official submission_periods endpoint showed the 2026-06-01 to 2026-06-30 period with submission_start_date 2026-07-21, submission_due_date 2026-07-31, and certification_due_date 2026-08-15; the registered FY2026 P12 target resolves at the conservative 2026-10-22 bound for the October first-print snapshot.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked USAspending federal spending guide for transaction-file interpretation.
↳ USAspending states Assistance_PrimeTransactions and Contracts_PrimeTransactions rows represent prime award transactions; the guide also lists FY filters from 2008 through 2026 on Advanced Search.
▸ Reported tool use: public.referencemodel report
Reviewed public OBBA-to-TAFS mapping and reported USAspending-derived obligations for the same DHS account family.
↳ The public analysis reported CBP had obligated $11.3 billion, equal to 17% of $64.7 billion OBBA CBP funding, as of December 2025; it also mapped 070-2025/2029-0530 and 070-2025/2029-0532 to CBP OBBA accounts and reported $64.8 billion in those TAFS as of September 2025.
▸ Reported tool use: public.referencemodel report
Reviewed public account mappings for non-CBP target accounts.
↳ The same mapping lists Sec. 90005(a) FEMA-administered state and local assistance at $2.58 billion, Sec. 90005(b)(3) State Border Security Reinforcement Fund at $10.00 billion for 070-2025/2034-0722, and FLETC at $0.75 billion for 070-2025/2029-0509 and 070-2025/2029-0510.
▸ Reported tool use: public.referencemodel report
Checked OpenOMB public apportionment references for the registered FEMA-related accounts.
↳ OpenOMB listed State Border Security Reinforcement Fund TAFS 070-0722 2025/2034 as FY2026 file 11523612 approved Jun 4 2026, and Federal Assistance FEMA TAFS 070-0413 with FY2026 files approved May 21 2026 and May 26 2026.

Base rate / reference class: this is a lumpy multiyear appropriation drawdown target. The best outside-view anchor is the already-observed CBP drawdown pace: $11.3 billion in obligations by December 2025 from a $64.7-$64.8 billion account family, with other registered accounts adding smaller but still material grant/reimbursement channels. I do not use a same-series time-series prior because the exact FY2026 Title VI registered-account snapshot is a new policy-funded flow, so earlier fiscal years are not comparable to the FY2026 first-print obligation level.

Prior/update/interval: base prior is the observed CBP drawdown scale, not a direct persistence forecast. Historical/reference sample is $11.3B already obligated on CBP OBBA accounts, $64.8B CBP authority, $10.0B State Border authority, $2.58B FEMA assistance authority, and $0.75B FLETC authority. Adjustment components are CBP awards 15.0B + State Border 6.5B + FEMA assistance 2.3B + FLETC 0.5B + other first-print timing/rounding 0.5B = 24.8B. Interval method is an explicit component-error model for this lumpy first-print flow: CBP procurement uncertainty 4.0B, State Border timing uncertainty 3.0B, FEMA grant uncertainty 0.8B, FLETC uncertainty 0.2B, USAspending first-print reporting-lag uncertainty 1.0B; sigma = sqrt(4.0^2 + 3.0^2 + 0.8^2 + 0.2^2 + 1.0^2) = 5.19B, and 1.28*sigma = 6.64B. Therefore 24.8B +/- 6.64B gives 18.16B to 31.44B.

Upside risk: rapid border-wall, screening-technology, or state reimbursement awards could add more than about $10B beyond the CBP base and push total obligations above 31.44B. Downside risk: procurement delays, low 070-0722 award execution, or October first-print reporting gaps could keep the CBP-plus-grants total below 18.16B, outside the interval.

Review disposition: accepted the critique that cross-sectional account amounts should not be treated as realized volatility; revised the Prior/update/interval step to separate the base prior, fetched reference amounts, additive forecast components, and an explicit component-error uncertainty model. Accepted the suggestion to clarify the 070-0722 versus 2025/2034 reference mismatch while preserving the registered target.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
$24,800,000,000[$18,160,000,000 · $31,440,000,000]
Target metadata

Data point: usaspending.dhs.title_vi.award_transaction_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot

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