thesisPrototype

Government data

US DoD prime award obligations FY2026

What will USAspending API v2 report for Department of Defense agency 097 prime award obligations for FY2026, in billions USD, on the registered query snapshot, using the obligations field from /api/v2/agency/097/awards/?fiscal_year=2026?

Forecast

455
380–530
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%267.5455642.5Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (380–530). Dashed line: point estimate (455).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§USAspending DoD FY2026 Prime Award Obligations

Resolution target is the registered USAspending API v2 agency 097 awards endpoint, fiscal_year=2026, obligations field, converted to billions USD. This is a registered query snapshot target with expectedReleaseWindow 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-22, so I use the ledger outer deadline 2026-10-22 rather than inferring a release-calendar day.

▸ Reported tool use: usaspending.awardsmodel report
GET https://api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/agency/097/awards/
↳ Fetched agency 097 awards endpoint: fiscal_year 2026, latest_action_date 2026-07-10T00:00:00, transaction_count 2205913, obligations 245063144206.58 USD = 245.063 billion USD.
▸ Reported tool use: usaspending.agency_overviewmodel report
GET https://api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/agency/097/
↳ Fetched agency overview: fiscal_year 2026, toptier_code 097, name Department of Defense, agency_id 1173, subtier_agency_count 36; overview text states DoD contract and IDV data are subject to a 90-day publication delay, while other DoD data are not.
▸ Reported tool use: usaspending.docsmodel report
Open USAspending endpoint contract for /api/v2/agency/{toptier_code}/awards/{?fiscal_year,agency_type,award_type_codes}
↳ Fetched endpoint contract: fiscal_year is an optional number parameter; response attributes include toptier_code, fiscal_year, latest_action_date, transaction_count, obligations, and messages; sample response shows fiscal_year 2021, transaction_count 2, obligations 90000.0.
▸ Reported tool use: usaspending.cookbook_subagency_fy2024model report
Inspect public USAspending API tutorial section retrieving DoD FY2024 subagency data
↳ Fetched public API example for Department of Defense FY2024 sub_agency: Navy obligations 135984528084, Army 108188048621, Air Force 101536586326, Defense Logistics Agency 53148863110, Defense Health Agency 20196091028, Missile Defense Agency 8463883396; top-six sum = 427.518 billion USD.

Base rate / reference class: the directly fetched target endpoint gives 245.1B through latest_action_date 2026-07-10, while the fetched FY2024 DoD top-six subagency proxy sums to 427.5B. Complete prior-year observations from the same agency 097 awards endpoint were unavailable in the draft evidence, so the FY2024 top-six figure is a weak public proxy rather than target-series history.

Model candidates: incomplete-YTD run-rate = 245.063 * 365 / 283 = 316.1B, but this underweights late reporting and DoD publication lag; FY2024 top-six proxy = 427.5B before smaller subagencies. Selected benchmark prior = 455.0B, reflecting the proxy scale plus a modest residual for the other 30 DoD subagencies visible in the agency overview. No current fetched signal justifies a large move above that scale, so no positive inside-view adjustment is added.

Prior/update/interval: prior = 455.0B from the FY2024 top-six public proxy plus smaller-subagency residual; historical sample is not a complete target-series sample, only the fetched FY2026 YTD target endpoint and fetched FY2024 DoD subagency proxy. Adjustment components = 0.0B net because FY2026 YTD is incomplete and lagged. Interval method is deliberately wide fallback-prior uncertainty, not realized target volatility: judgmental sigma = 58.6B, half-width = 1.28*sigma = 75.0B, so 80% interval = 455.0 +/- 75.0 = [380.0, 530.0]B.

Downside risk outside the interval: if the registered October snapshot still misses a large share of late-FY DoD contract or IDV awards because of the 90-day publication delay, the API obligations field could land below 380B. Upside risk outside the interval: if late-FY contract awards and IDVs post faster than the current latest_action_date pattern, or FY2026 procurement obligations materially exceed the FY2024 proxy scale, the snapshot could land above 530B.

Review disposition: accepted the critique that the FY2024 top-six figure is a weak proxy rather than complete target-series history, accepted the interval critique by labeling sigma as judgmental fallback uncertainty rather than realized volatility, and kept the resolver fields unchanged because they match the ledger target contract.

Key drivers

  • Current FY2026 DoD award obligations already 245.1B
  • DoD contract and IDV publication lag affects snapshot completeness
  • FY2024 top-six DoD subagency proxy implies high annual scale
  • Registered snapshot occurs after FY2026 close
  • Thin complete-history access keeps interval wide

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
USAspending API v2, agency 097 awards
Resolution date
October 22, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve from USAspending API v2 agency 097 awards endpoint for fiscal_year=2026, field obligations, transformed by multiplying by 1e-9 to billions USD. Use the registered query snapshot policy for the first resolving snapshot in the Thesis expectedReleaseWindow 2026-10-15 through 2026-10-22; the lab-committed outer bound is 2026-10-22. Round to the nearest 0.1 billion USD. Later API changes after the registered snapshot are irrelevant.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · full · v2.5.8

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is mostly publication-ready on resolver and coherence, but its prior and interval lean too heavily on a non-target FY2024 top-six tutorial example and need clearer support or downgraded claims.

  • warning model_prior: The selected 455B prior is based on a FY2024 top-six subagency example from a tutorial, not direct complete target-history observations from the registered USAspending agency 097 awards endpoint.
  • warning interval: The sigma value of 58.6B is asserted from a fallback dispersion judgment, but it is not derived from realized target volatility or a reproducible calculation.
  • warning prior_update_interval: The compact prior/update/interval step names the sample and method, but the historical sample is thin and partly non-comparable: one incomplete FY2026 YTD target fetch plus a FY2024 top-six subagency proxy.
  • info optional_suggestion: In the final reasoning, avoid calling the FY2024 tutorial-derived top-six value an official annual floor unless it was fetched directly from USAspending or clearly framed as a public example.
  • info optional_suggestion: Keep the resolver fields unchanged; slug, unit, dataPointId, resolutionDate, URL pattern, transform, and snapshot rule match the ledger contract.
  • info optional_suggestion: The tail scenarios are concrete enough, but could mention the 90-day DoD contract/IDV delay in both tails for tighter target linkage.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the critique that the FY2024 top-six figure is a weak proxy rather than complete target-series history, accepted the interval critique by labeling sigma as judgmental fallback uncertainty rather than realized volatility, and kept the resolver fields unchanged because they match the ledger target contract.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the critique that the FY2024 top-six figure is a weak proxy rather than complete target-series history, accepted the interval critique by labeling sigma as judgmental fallback uncertainty rather than realized volatility, and kept the resolver fields unchanged because they match the ledger target contract.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the critique that the FY2024 top-six figure is a weak proxy rather than complete target-series history, accepted the interval critique by labeling sigma as judgmental fallback uncertainty rather than realized volatility, and kept the resolver fields unchanged because they match the ledger target contract.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the critique that the FY2024 top-six figure is a weak proxy rather than complete target-series history, accepted the interval critique by labeling sigma as judgmental fallback uncertainty rather than realized volatility, and kept the resolver fields unchanged because they match the ledger target contract.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the critique that the FY2024 top-six figure is a weak proxy rather than complete target-series history, accepted the interval critique by labeling sigma as judgmental fallback uncertainty rather than realized volatility, and kept the resolver fields unchanged because they match the ledger target contract.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the critique that the FY2024 top-six figure is a weak proxy rather than complete target-series history, accepted the interval critique by labeling sigma as judgmental fallback uncertainty rather than realized volatility, and kept the resolver fields unchanged because they match the ledger target contract.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§USAspending DoD FY2026 Prime Award Obligations

Resolution target is the registered USAspending API v2 agency 097 awards endpoint, fiscal_year=2026, obligations field, converted to billions USD. This is a registered query snapshot target with expectedReleaseWindow 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-22, so I use the ledger outer deadline 2026-10-22 rather than inferring a release-calendar day.

▸ Reported tool use: usaspending.awardsmodel report
GET https://api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/agency/097/awards/
↳ Fetched agency 097 awards endpoint: fiscal_year 2026, latest_action_date 2026-07-10T00:00:00, transaction_count 2205913, obligations 245063144206.58 USD = 245.063 billion USD.
▸ Reported tool use: usaspending.agency_overviewmodel report
GET https://api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/agency/097/
↳ Fetched agency overview: fiscal_year 2026, toptier_code 097, name Department of Defense, agency_id 1173, subtier_agency_count 36; overview text states DoD contract and IDV data are subject to a 90-day publication delay, while other DoD data are not.
▸ Reported tool use: usaspending.docsmodel report
Open USAspending endpoint contract for /api/v2/agency/{toptier_code}/awards/{?fiscal_year,agency_type,award_type_codes}
↳ Fetched endpoint contract: fiscal_year is an optional number parameter; response attributes include toptier_code, fiscal_year, latest_action_date, transaction_count, obligations, and messages; sample response shows fiscal_year 2021, transaction_count 2, obligations 90000.0.
▸ Reported tool use: usaspending.cookbook_subagency_fy2024model report
Inspect public USAspending API tutorial section retrieving DoD FY2024 subagency data
↳ Fetched public API example for Department of Defense FY2024 sub_agency: Navy obligations 135984528084, Army 108188048621, Air Force 101536586326, Defense Logistics Agency 53148863110, Defense Health Agency 20196091028, Missile Defense Agency 8463883396; top-six sum = 427.518 billion USD.

Base rate / reference class: the directly fetched target endpoint gives 245.1B through latest_action_date 2026-07-10, while the fetched FY2024 DoD top-six subagency proxy sums to 427.5B. Complete prior-year observations from the same agency 097 awards endpoint were unavailable in the draft evidence, so the FY2024 top-six figure is a weak public proxy rather than target-series history.

Model candidates: incomplete-YTD run-rate = 245.063 * 365 / 283 = 316.1B, but this underweights late reporting and DoD publication lag; FY2024 top-six proxy = 427.5B before smaller subagencies. Selected benchmark prior = 455.0B, reflecting the proxy scale plus a modest residual for the other 30 DoD subagencies visible in the agency overview. No current fetched signal justifies a large move above that scale, so no positive inside-view adjustment is added.

Prior/update/interval: prior = 455.0B from the FY2024 top-six public proxy plus smaller-subagency residual; historical sample is not a complete target-series sample, only the fetched FY2026 YTD target endpoint and fetched FY2024 DoD subagency proxy. Adjustment components = 0.0B net because FY2026 YTD is incomplete and lagged. Interval method is deliberately wide fallback-prior uncertainty, not realized target volatility: judgmental sigma = 58.6B, half-width = 1.28*sigma = 75.0B, so 80% interval = 455.0 +/- 75.0 = [380.0, 530.0]B.

Downside risk outside the interval: if the registered October snapshot still misses a large share of late-FY DoD contract or IDV awards because of the 90-day publication delay, the API obligations field could land below 380B. Upside risk outside the interval: if late-FY contract awards and IDVs post faster than the current latest_action_date pattern, or FY2026 procurement obligations materially exceed the FY2024 proxy scale, the snapshot could land above 530B.

Review disposition: accepted the critique that the FY2024 top-six figure is a weak proxy rather than complete target-series history, accepted the interval critique by labeling sigma as judgmental fallback uncertainty rather than realized volatility, and kept the resolver fields unchanged because they match the ledger target contract.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
455[380 · 530]
Target metadata

Data point: usaspending.dod.prime_award_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot

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