§DoD FY2026 unique prime-recipient forecast
Framing and exact resolver: this targets the USAspending API v2 Advanced Search spending_by_category/recipient endpoint, grouped by recipient_id, for Department of Defense awarding agency, prime contract award type codes A-D, fiscal year 2026. The ledger uses the registered_query_snapshot rule with an expected release window of 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-22; I keep that resolver and do not add correction-day grace.
Checked USAspending API endpoint catalog and resolver endpoint identity.↳ USAspending API docs list /api/v2/search/spending_by_category/recipient as a POST grouped-recipient endpoint; the endpoint index also lists /api/v2/awards/last_updated/ and 1 recipient grouping endpoint relevant to this resolver.Fetched audited same-query historical recipient counts from the USAspending API registered-query shape for DoD A-D contract transactions by fiscal year.↳ Official same-query counts in thousands used for the forecast sample: FY2019 55.6, FY2020 55.9, FY2021 57.2, FY2022 58.5, FY2023 56.8, FY2024 55.1, FY2025 54.2; excluding null recipient_id values and using factor 0.001.Fetched FY2026 year-to-date status from the same USAspending API snapshot path.↳ Official same-query FY2026 year-to-date count through 2026-07-19 was 43.7 thousand distinct non-null recipient_id values, equal to about 80.6% of the FY2025 full-year 54.2 thousand comparison point.Checked USAspending submission-statistics methodology and public data timing notes for release-date basis.↳ USAspending says the submission table updates on the day after a submission deadline and shows publication dates; DoD procurement data carries a 90 day display delay, and the registered FY2026 window is 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-22, so the resolution date remains the registered outer date 2026-10-22.Base rate/reference class: the reference class is the same official USAspending grouped-recipient query over recent complete fiscal years. The FY2019-FY2025 seven-year level average is 56.2 thousand and the latest complete year is 54.2 thousand, so the base rate says to expect a value in the mid-50-thousands with some rebound toward the recent mean.
Level and momentum: FY2026 year-to-date at 43.7 thousand through visible July data is not mechanically comparable with a full fiscal year because late actions and delayed DoD visibility arrive after fiscal year close. Still, 43.7 thousand is close enough to the recent run-rate that I do not impose a large contraction.
Prior/update/interval: persistence prior = FY2025 official same-query count 54.2 thousand; historical sample = one audited same-query complete-year sequence, FY2019-FY2025 values 55.6, 55.9, 57.2, 58.5, 56.8, 55.1, 54.2. Adjustment components = +1.4 thousand mean reversion toward the 56.2 thousand seven-year base rate, +0.6 thousand from defense-budget and procurement-breadth support, 0.0 for policy mechanism because no rule change in recipient identity is in the resolver. Point = 54.2 + 1.4 + 0.6 = 56.2. Successive changes are +0.3, +1.3, +1.3, -1.7, -1.7, -0.9 thousand, giving sigma = 1.40 thousand; 1.28*sigma = 1.79 thousand. I widen to a 2.4 thousand half-width, 1.34x the mechanical half-width, because late DoD visibility and UEI/recipient normalization can move a distinct-recipient count more than ordinary year-to-year procurement activity. Final 80% interval = 56.2 +/- 2.4 = 53.8 to 58.6 thousand.
Counter-consideration: upside risk would be broader low-dollar procurement or unusually successful small-business outreach, which would land above the interval if the snapshot exceeds 58.6 thousand. Downside risk is continued contractor-base consolidation, delayed DoD procurement visibility, or fewer one-off small awards; a count below 53.8 thousand would land outside the interval on the low side.
Review disposition: accepted the critique that the draft mixed historical snapshots. I now use one audited FY2019-FY2025 sample consistently for historicalContext, base rate, sigma, point estimate, and interval, while retaining the ledger registered-query snapshot resolver and 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-22 expected window.