§Forecast for July 2026 durable goods new orders MoM
Framing and exact resolver: this targets the seasonally adjusted Total Durable Goods New Orders month-over-month percent change, not the not-seasonally-adjusted level, not ex-transportation, and not the later full-report revision. Census M3 is the official origin source; ALFRED DGORDER is the stable mirror used by the ledger resolver for the first vintage.
Checked the Census M3 release schedule for the July 2026 survey month.↳ The official schedule lists June 2026 advance release on 7/27/2026, July 2026 advance release on 8/26/2026, and August 2026 advance release on 9/25/2026.Read the current June 2026 Census advance press release and Table 1 for durable goods new orders.↳ June 2026 durable goods new orders increased $1.1 billion or 0.3% to $334.8 billion; Table 1 shows Total New Orders 334,772 million, May 333,706 million, April 347,767 million, with monthly changes 0.3%, -4.0%, and 8.5%.Read the June 2026 component detail in Census advance Table 1.↳ June 2026 excluding transportation new orders rose 0.6% to 220,940 million; excluding defense rose 0.3% to 308,542 million; computers and electronic products rose 3.1% to 31,099 million; transportation equipment fell 0.2% to 113,832 million.Read the May 2026 historical Census advance release for the recent reference-class path and volatility.↳ The May 2026 release reported May new orders -4.5% to $332.1 billion after April +8.5%; its 2025-2026 chart gave monthly first-print changes including Jun-25 -9.4%, Jul-25 -2.8%, Aug-25 3.0%, Sep-25 0.6%, Oct-25 -2.1%, Nov-25 5.4%, Dec-25 -0.9%, Jan-26 -0.4%, Feb-26 -1.2%, Mar-26 1.3%, Apr-26 8.5%, and May-26 -4.5%.Base rate / reference class: durable-goods headline MoM is a high-variance flow series because aircraft and defense orders can swing the aggregate. The recent official reference class is centered near zero: the Jun-25 through Jun-26 first-print-style values average about -0.17 percentage points, while the non-transport June reading at +0.6% and core capital-goods excluding aircraft at +0.9% argue against treating the May drop as persistent weakness.
Prior/update/interval: persistence/reference-class prior is the recent headline mean, using official Jun-25 through Jun-26 monthly changes [-9.4, -2.8, 3.0, 0.6, -2.1, 5.4, -0.9, -0.4, -1.2, 1.3, 8.5, -4.5, 0.3], mean = -0.17. Updates: +0.3 pp for June headline stabilization, +0.2 pp for ex-transport/core-capital strength, and +0.1 pp for partial mean reversion after the May/April aircraft whipsaw, giving point = 0.4. For a change/flow target I size dispersion from the values themselves and prefer first-print-style values where available because the target itself is first print: sample sigma = 4.4 percentage points, so 1.28*sigma = 5.6; point 0.4 +/- 5.6 gives an 80% interval of -5.2 to 6.0.
Counter-considerations: upside risk is a renewed aircraft or defense-order surge like April 2026, which would land above the interval if transportation orders jump sharply. Downside risk is another aircraft cancellation or broad transportation reversal like May 2026, which would land below the interval. Outside the interval would require a move larger than the recent non-aircraft trend can explain, so it would most likely be transportation/aircraft-specific rather than broad manufacturing momentum.
Review disposition: accepted both optional clarifications by distinguishing Census as the official origin from ALFRED as the ledger mirror, and by stating that the volatility sample prefers first-print-style values while the May revised value remains only a recent-context point.