thesisPrototype

Government data

US durable goods orders MoM, June 2026

What will the U.S. Census Bureau first report for seasonally adjusted manufacturers' new orders for durable goods (DGORDER), month-over-month percent growth, for June 2026?

Forecast

+1.8%
-4.8%–+8.4%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%-14.7%+1.8%+18.3%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (-4.8%–+8.4%). Dashed line: point estimate (+1.8%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Observed outcomeinside 80% interval
actual
+0.3%
forecast
+1.8% with 80% interval [-4.8%, +8.4%]
error
-1.5% · absolute +1.5%
cdf score
CRPS 1.57 · PIT 0.41
source
census_m3 Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders

First print for 2026-06 captured from https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/alfredgraph.csv?id=DGORDER&vintage_date=2026-07-27 on the official release date named by the cell's resolver.

Analysis

§US durable goods orders MoM, June 2026 first print

Framing and exact resolver: this targets the Census M3 Advance Report headline series for manufacturers' new orders for durable goods, seasonally adjusted, FRED/ALFRED series code DGORDER. The ledger source binding points to ALFRED DGORDER as the resolution mirror, while the underlying statistical release is the Census M3 Advance Report; I am forecasting the first-print month-over-month percent growth for June 2026, not the later full M3 revision.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked Census M3 release schedule and Census economic indicators calendar for the June 2026 advance durable goods release date.
↳ Census lists Survey Month June 2026 with Advance Report on Durable Goods and Advance Total Manufacturing on 7/27/2026 at 8:30 a.m.; the full report is listed for 8/4/2026. The calendar-list view also lists Advance Report on Durable Goods--Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders on July 27, 2026 at 8:30 AM for period June 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read the current Census M3 advance durable goods release for the latest first-print reference point.
↳ The June 25, 2026 Census advance report said May 2026 new orders for manufactured durable goods decreased $15.6 billion, or 4.5 percent, to $332.1 billion; April increased 8.5 percent; excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.3 percent; transportation equipment decreased $18.5 billion, or 14.0 percent, to $113.5 billion.
▸ Reported tool use: fred.lookupmodel report
Checked DGORDER recent levels from the public FRED/ALFRED mirror of Census M3.
↳ FRED DGORDER showed May 2026 = 332,050 million dollars, April 2026 = 347,618, March 2026 = 320,485, February 2026 = 316,233, and January 2026 = 319,975; these imply approximate MoM changes of May -4.5 percent, April +8.5 percent, March +1.3 percent, February -1.2 percent, and January -0.4 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: survey.lookupmodel report
Checked June manufacturing demand indicators before the durable goods release.
↳ ISM's June 2026 Manufacturing PMI was 53.3 percent, down 0.7 point from May 54.0; the New Orders Index was 56.0, down 0.8 point from May 56.8; Production was 52.2, down 2.1 points from May 54.3; Backlog of Orders was 50.5, down 1.7 points from May 52.2.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked June industrial production and aircraft-related public data for transport and production context.
↳ The Federal Reserve G.17 release reported June 2026 industrial production +0.1 percent and manufacturing output unchanged at 0.0 percent. Boeing reported 171 commercial airplane deliveries in Q2 2026 and 314 year-to-date; public June aircraft order coverage reported Boeing booked 121 gross commercial aircraft orders and delivered 64 jets in June.

Base rate / reference class: using the recent DGORDER monthly percent changes from January 2024 through May 2026 gives a volatile 29-observation reference class with mean about +0.47 percentage point and sigma about 5.15 percentage points. The series is dominated by aircraft and other transportation swings, so the May transportation drop and June aircraft order rebound matter more than a smooth manufacturing trend.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior is the 2024-01 to 2026-05 DGORDER MoM base rate mean of +0.47 pp. I add +1.3 pp for transport/aircraft rebound after May's -14.0 percent transportation drop and June Boeing order strength, +0.4 pp for ISM new orders at 56.0, subtract 0.2 pp for flat Fed manufacturing output, and subtract 0.2 pp for softer exports/prices drag, giving +1.8 percent. Interval method uses realized dispersion of DGORDER MoM values themselves: sigma = 5.15, so 80 percent half-width is roughly 1.28*sigma = 1.28*5.15 = 6.59 pp; +1.8 +/- 6.6 gives [-4.8, 8.4] after rounding.

Counter-considerations: upside risk is a much larger-than-assumed aircraft booking print or defense capital-goods jump, which would land above the interval if total orders rise more than about 8.4 percent. Downside risk is that June aircraft orders do not translate into Census M3 timing, or nontransport durable categories reverse despite ISM breadth, which would land below the interval if total orders fall more than about 4.8 percent.

Review disposition: accepted the resolver-clarity suggestions by explicitly stating that ALFRED/FRED is the ledger mirror of the Census M3 Advance Report and that the first applicable ALFRED DGORDER vintage for the July 27, 2026 release is the intended vintage; no required fixes were identified.

Key drivers

  • May transport drop leaves rebound risk
  • June ISM new orders still expanding
  • Manufacturing output flat in June
  • Aircraft orders make headline series volatile
  • Exports and prices temper the upside

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
ALFRED/FRED vintage mirror of the U.S. Census Bureau M3 Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
Resolved
July 27, 2026
Resolution rule
Use the first-print June 2026 seasonally adjusted DGORDER observation released with the Census M3 Advance Report on July 27, 2026, as mirrored by the first applicable ALFRED DGORDER vintage for that release. Convert the first-print level to month-over-month percent growth versus the May 2026 first-print DGORDER level as 100*(June/May - 1), reported in percentage points. Later M3 full-report values, benchmark revisions, and subsequent ALFRED vintages do not replace the first print.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.4.0

pre-submit review · completed

The draft satisfies the publication rubric with a clear first-print resolver, stated base-rate prior, explicit update math, volatility-based interval, and coherent JSON fields.

  • info optional_suggestion: Consider naming the exact ALFRED vintage date expected for the July 27, 2026 first print if the pipeline depends on vintage selection.
  • info optional_suggestion: Consider clarifying that FRED/ALFRED is only the ledger mirror and that the underlying statistical release is the Census M3 Advance Report.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the resolver-clarity suggestions by explicitly stating that ALFRED/FRED is the ledger mirror of the Census M3 Advance Report and that the first applicable ALFRED DGORDER vintage for the July 27, 2026 release is the intended vintage; no required fixes were identified.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the resolver-clarity suggestions by explicitly stating that ALFRED/FRED is the ledger mirror of the Census M3 Advance Report and that the first applicable ALFRED DGORDER vintage for the July 27, 2026 release is the intended vintage; no required fixes were identified.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§US durable goods orders MoM, June 2026 first print

Framing and exact resolver: this targets the Census M3 Advance Report headline series for manufacturers' new orders for durable goods, seasonally adjusted, FRED/ALFRED series code DGORDER. The ledger source binding points to ALFRED DGORDER as the resolution mirror, while the underlying statistical release is the Census M3 Advance Report; I am forecasting the first-print month-over-month percent growth for June 2026, not the later full M3 revision.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked Census M3 release schedule and Census economic indicators calendar for the June 2026 advance durable goods release date.
↳ Census lists Survey Month June 2026 with Advance Report on Durable Goods and Advance Total Manufacturing on 7/27/2026 at 8:30 a.m.; the full report is listed for 8/4/2026. The calendar-list view also lists Advance Report on Durable Goods--Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders on July 27, 2026 at 8:30 AM for period June 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read the current Census M3 advance durable goods release for the latest first-print reference point.
↳ The June 25, 2026 Census advance report said May 2026 new orders for manufactured durable goods decreased $15.6 billion, or 4.5 percent, to $332.1 billion; April increased 8.5 percent; excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.3 percent; transportation equipment decreased $18.5 billion, or 14.0 percent, to $113.5 billion.
▸ Reported tool use: fred.lookupmodel report
Checked DGORDER recent levels from the public FRED/ALFRED mirror of Census M3.
↳ FRED DGORDER showed May 2026 = 332,050 million dollars, April 2026 = 347,618, March 2026 = 320,485, February 2026 = 316,233, and January 2026 = 319,975; these imply approximate MoM changes of May -4.5 percent, April +8.5 percent, March +1.3 percent, February -1.2 percent, and January -0.4 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: survey.lookupmodel report
Checked June manufacturing demand indicators before the durable goods release.
↳ ISM's June 2026 Manufacturing PMI was 53.3 percent, down 0.7 point from May 54.0; the New Orders Index was 56.0, down 0.8 point from May 56.8; Production was 52.2, down 2.1 points from May 54.3; Backlog of Orders was 50.5, down 1.7 points from May 52.2.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked June industrial production and aircraft-related public data for transport and production context.
↳ The Federal Reserve G.17 release reported June 2026 industrial production +0.1 percent and manufacturing output unchanged at 0.0 percent. Boeing reported 171 commercial airplane deliveries in Q2 2026 and 314 year-to-date; public June aircraft order coverage reported Boeing booked 121 gross commercial aircraft orders and delivered 64 jets in June.

Base rate / reference class: using the recent DGORDER monthly percent changes from January 2024 through May 2026 gives a volatile 29-observation reference class with mean about +0.47 percentage point and sigma about 5.15 percentage points. The series is dominated by aircraft and other transportation swings, so the May transportation drop and June aircraft order rebound matter more than a smooth manufacturing trend.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior is the 2024-01 to 2026-05 DGORDER MoM base rate mean of +0.47 pp. I add +1.3 pp for transport/aircraft rebound after May's -14.0 percent transportation drop and June Boeing order strength, +0.4 pp for ISM new orders at 56.0, subtract 0.2 pp for flat Fed manufacturing output, and subtract 0.2 pp for softer exports/prices drag, giving +1.8 percent. Interval method uses realized dispersion of DGORDER MoM values themselves: sigma = 5.15, so 80 percent half-width is roughly 1.28*sigma = 1.28*5.15 = 6.59 pp; +1.8 +/- 6.6 gives [-4.8, 8.4] after rounding.

Counter-considerations: upside risk is a much larger-than-assumed aircraft booking print or defense capital-goods jump, which would land above the interval if total orders rise more than about 8.4 percent. Downside risk is that June aircraft orders do not translate into Census M3 timing, or nontransport durable categories reverse despite ISM breadth, which would land below the interval if total orders fall more than about 4.8 percent.

Review disposition: accepted the resolver-clarity suggestions by explicitly stating that ALFRED/FRED is the ledger mirror of the Census M3 Advance Report and that the first applicable ALFRED DGORDER vintage for the July 27, 2026 release is the intended vintage; no required fixes were identified.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
+1.8%[-4.8% · +8.4%]
Target metadata

Data point: census.m3.durable_goods_new_orders_mom.2026_06.first_print

More government data forecasts