thesisPrototype

Government data

US ECI Private Wages Q2 2026

BLS Employment Cost Index, wages and salaries for all private industry workers, seasonally adjusted 3-month percent change, 2026 Q2 first print

Forecast

+0.8%
+0.3%–+1.3%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%-0.3%+0.8%+1.9%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (+0.3%–+1.3%). Dashed line: point estimate (+0.8%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Observed outcomeinside 80% interval
actual
+0.9%
forecast
+0.8% with 80% interval [+0.3%, +1.3%]
error
+0.1% · absolute +0.1%
cdf score
CRPS 0.11 · PIT 0.59
source
bls_eci Employment Cost Index, Table 2

First print for 2026-04 captured from https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/alfredgraph.csv?id=ECIWAG&vintage_date=2026-07-31 on the official release date named by the cell's resolver.

Analysis

§Forecast for BLS private-industry wage ECI, Q2 2026 first print

The economic target is BLS Table 2, series CIS2020000000000Q: wages and salaries for all private industry workers, seasonally adjusted, 3-month percent change in current dollars. The ledger resolver is ALFRED/FRED ECIWAG under a first-print policy, so this forecast keeps the canonical catalog target while treating BLS Table 2 as the underlying official agency source mirrored by the ledger binding.

▸ Reported tool use: official.calendar.lookupmodel report
Checked BLS schedule of releases for Employment Cost Index.
↳ BLS lists Employment Cost Index for Second Quarter 2026 on 2026-07-31 at 08:30 AM; Q1 2026 was 2026-04-30 and Q3 2026 is scheduled for 2026-10-30.
▸ Reported tool use: official.series.lookupmodel report
Checked BLS public time-series metadata for the exact seasonally adjusted private-industry wages series.
↳ BLS ci.series identifies CIS2020000000000Q as wages and salaries for all private industry workers, 3-month percent change, current dollars, seasonal=S, owner_code=2, estimate_code=02, begin_year=2001, begin_period=Q01, end_year=2026, end_period=Q01.
▸ Reported tool use: official.history.lookupmodel report
Fetched BLS ci.data.0.Current observations for CIS2020000000000Q.
↳ Recent values were 2026 Q01=0.7, 2025 Q04=0.7, 2025 Q03=0.8, 2025 Q02=1.0, 2025 Q01=0.8, 2024 Q04=0.9, 2024 Q03=0.8, 2024 Q02=0.8, 2024 Q01=1.1.
▸ Reported tool use: official.release.lookupmodel report
Checked current BLS Employment Cost Index Table 2 and summary for cross-check against the time-series file.
↳ BLS Table 2 reports private industry workers, all workers, wages and salaries, seasonally adjusted percent changes of 2024 Q1=1.1, 2024 Q2=0.8, 2024 Q3=0.8, 2024 Q4=0.9, 2025 Q1=0.8, 2025 Q2=1.0, 2025 Q3=0.8, 2025 Q4=0.7, 2026 Q1=0.7; the summary says private-industry wages and salaries increased 0.7 percent in Q1 2026.

Reference class/base rate: for CIS2020000000000Q from 2014 Q1 through 2026 Q1, the mean is about 0.82 percent qoq, with a cooler recent run of 0.8, 1.0, 0.8, 0.7, 0.7 over the last five quarters. I anchor on that reference class but weight the latest two quarters because wage growth has decelerated from the 2021-2023 catch-up period.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior is last two official prints, 0.7 and 0.7, blended with the 2014 Q1-2026 Q1 reference-class mean of 0.82 and the last-five-quarter mean of 0.80. Adjustment components: level/momentum +0.00 versus last-five mean, one-off reopening premium -0.05 versus 2021-2023, policy/labor-market stickiness +0.05 because wage contracts and low unemployment limit abrupt slowing, giving point 0.80. Interval method uses the values themselves for this qoq change series: n=49, sum=40.3, sumsq=39.9, sigma = sqrt((39.9 - 49*(40.3/49)^2)/48) = 0.375 percentage points; 1.28*sigma = 0.480, so an 80 percent band around 0.80 is about 0.32 to 1.28, rounded conservatively to 0.35 to 1.25.

Upside risk: a renewed bonus-heavy quarter, health-care wage pressure, or broad labor-cost catch-up could print 1.3 percent or higher and would land above the interval. Downside risk: a faster private-sector labor-market cooling or weak incentive pay could print 0.3 percent or lower and would land below the interval. Outside the interval requires a move materially larger than recent 0.7-1.0 percent stability.

Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by aligning the resolver fields with the canonical ALFRED/FRED ECIWAG first-print binding while retaining BLS Table 2 as the official underlying source; rejected no numerical changes because the prior, sigma calculation, and risk scenarios remained internally coherent.

Key drivers

  • Recent private wage ECI pace is 0.7-1.0 percent qoq
  • Post-2021 wage-pressure regime has cooled but remains above pre-2021 average
  • Private compensation summary showed Q1 2026 wages at 0.7 percent while total compensation was 0.9 percent
  • Low unemployment and still-firm nominal wage setting argue against a sharp drop
  • Release is seasonally adjusted Table 2 private-industry wages, not the not-seasonally-adjusted Table 9 index

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
ALFRED/FRED first-print mirror of BLS Employment Cost Index, Table 2
Resolved
July 31, 2026
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first vintage published for ALFRED/FRED series ECIWAG for 2026 Q2, which mirrors the BLS Employment Cost Index Table 2 first print for seasonally adjusted wages and salaries, private industry workers, all workers, 3-month percent change in current dollars. Use the first-print value available for the 2026-07-31 release, rounded as reported, and ignore later revisions or corrections unless the target binding itself is amended.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.4.0

pre-submit review · completed

The draft is mostly coherent, but its resolver/source fields conflict with the canonical ledger binding and should be aligned or explicitly flagged as a ledger discrepancy before publication.

  • blocking resolver: Draft resolver fields use BLS Table 2 as the resolution source URL, while the canonical target contract binds this target to ALFRED/FRED adapter `alfred-fred`, allowed host `alfred.stlouisfed.org`, field/sourceSeriesId `ECIWAG`, and first-print policy.
  • info optional_suggestion: The compact prior/update/interval step is strong; consider making the blend weights explicit if the validator expects a machine-checkable prior calculation.
  • info optional_suggestion: The tail scenarios are adequate, but naming specific ECI-sensitive sectors or compensation components would make them slightly more target-specific.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by aligning the resolver fields with the canonical ALFRED/FRED ECIWAG first-print binding while retaining BLS Table 2 as the official underlying source; rejected no numerical changes because the prior, sigma calculation, and risk scenarios remained internally coherent.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by aligning the resolver fields with the canonical ALFRED/FRED ECIWAG first-print binding while retaining BLS Table 2 as the official underlying source; rejected no numerical changes because the prior, sigma calculation, and risk scenarios remained internally coherent.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by aligning the resolver fields with the canonical ALFRED/FRED ECIWAG first-print binding while retaining BLS Table 2 as the official underlying source; rejected no numerical changes because the prior, sigma calculation, and risk scenarios remained internally coherent.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§Forecast for BLS private-industry wage ECI, Q2 2026 first print

The economic target is BLS Table 2, series CIS2020000000000Q: wages and salaries for all private industry workers, seasonally adjusted, 3-month percent change in current dollars. The ledger resolver is ALFRED/FRED ECIWAG under a first-print policy, so this forecast keeps the canonical catalog target while treating BLS Table 2 as the underlying official agency source mirrored by the ledger binding.

▸ Reported tool use: official.calendar.lookupmodel report
Checked BLS schedule of releases for Employment Cost Index.
↳ BLS lists Employment Cost Index for Second Quarter 2026 on 2026-07-31 at 08:30 AM; Q1 2026 was 2026-04-30 and Q3 2026 is scheduled for 2026-10-30.
▸ Reported tool use: official.series.lookupmodel report
Checked BLS public time-series metadata for the exact seasonally adjusted private-industry wages series.
↳ BLS ci.series identifies CIS2020000000000Q as wages and salaries for all private industry workers, 3-month percent change, current dollars, seasonal=S, owner_code=2, estimate_code=02, begin_year=2001, begin_period=Q01, end_year=2026, end_period=Q01.
▸ Reported tool use: official.history.lookupmodel report
Fetched BLS ci.data.0.Current observations for CIS2020000000000Q.
↳ Recent values were 2026 Q01=0.7, 2025 Q04=0.7, 2025 Q03=0.8, 2025 Q02=1.0, 2025 Q01=0.8, 2024 Q04=0.9, 2024 Q03=0.8, 2024 Q02=0.8, 2024 Q01=1.1.
▸ Reported tool use: official.release.lookupmodel report
Checked current BLS Employment Cost Index Table 2 and summary for cross-check against the time-series file.
↳ BLS Table 2 reports private industry workers, all workers, wages and salaries, seasonally adjusted percent changes of 2024 Q1=1.1, 2024 Q2=0.8, 2024 Q3=0.8, 2024 Q4=0.9, 2025 Q1=0.8, 2025 Q2=1.0, 2025 Q3=0.8, 2025 Q4=0.7, 2026 Q1=0.7; the summary says private-industry wages and salaries increased 0.7 percent in Q1 2026.

Reference class/base rate: for CIS2020000000000Q from 2014 Q1 through 2026 Q1, the mean is about 0.82 percent qoq, with a cooler recent run of 0.8, 1.0, 0.8, 0.7, 0.7 over the last five quarters. I anchor on that reference class but weight the latest two quarters because wage growth has decelerated from the 2021-2023 catch-up period.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior is last two official prints, 0.7 and 0.7, blended with the 2014 Q1-2026 Q1 reference-class mean of 0.82 and the last-five-quarter mean of 0.80. Adjustment components: level/momentum +0.00 versus last-five mean, one-off reopening premium -0.05 versus 2021-2023, policy/labor-market stickiness +0.05 because wage contracts and low unemployment limit abrupt slowing, giving point 0.80. Interval method uses the values themselves for this qoq change series: n=49, sum=40.3, sumsq=39.9, sigma = sqrt((39.9 - 49*(40.3/49)^2)/48) = 0.375 percentage points; 1.28*sigma = 0.480, so an 80 percent band around 0.80 is about 0.32 to 1.28, rounded conservatively to 0.35 to 1.25.

Upside risk: a renewed bonus-heavy quarter, health-care wage pressure, or broad labor-cost catch-up could print 1.3 percent or higher and would land above the interval. Downside risk: a faster private-sector labor-market cooling or weak incentive pay could print 0.3 percent or lower and would land below the interval. Outside the interval requires a move materially larger than recent 0.7-1.0 percent stability.

Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by aligning the resolver fields with the canonical ALFRED/FRED ECIWAG first-print binding while retaining BLS Table 2 as the official underlying source; rejected no numerical changes because the prior, sigma calculation, and risk scenarios remained internally coherent.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
+0.8%[+0.3% · +1.3%]
Target metadata

Data point: bls.eci.private_wages_salaries_qoq.2026_q2.first_print

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