Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US goods and services trade deficit, June 2026
What will the first-print U.S. goods and services trade deficit be for June 2026, seasonally adjusted and not price adjusted, in billions of dollars?
current forecast · 80% CI$67B
$39.7B$67B$94.3B
history:May 2026 first print deficit: $77.6BApril 2026 revised deficit: $54.6BMarch 2026 deficit: $56.6B2026 Jan-May average deficit: $59.6BMay 2026 three-month average deficit: $62.9B
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-10T06:17:03Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 10, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- bea.trade.goods_services_deficit.2026_06.first_print
Key drivers
- May deficit jumped to 77.6 billion on lower exports and higher imports
- 2026 Jan-May deficit average remains much lower at 59.6 billion
- three-month average deficit is 62.9 billion, below the May level
- services surplus is stable near 28.9 billion, so goods swings dominate
- partial reversal of May gold and goods-import volatility is likely but not certain
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, Exhibit 1
- expected
- August 4, 2026
- rule
- Resolve on the first official August 4, 2026 print for June 2026 from U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, Exhibit 1. Use the seasonally adjusted, not price adjusted total goods and services balance; convert the balance to a positive deficit in USD billions, rounded to one decimal from the first release. Ignore later revisions.
- Data point
- bea.trade.goods_services_deficit.2026_06.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.