thesisPrototype

Government data

US private nonresidential fixed investment, Q3 2026

What will BEA report as the first-print nominal seasonally adjusted annual-rate value for private nonresidential fixed investment, NIPA Table 5.3.5 line 2, in 2026-Q3?

Forecast

$4,710B
$4,630B–$4,790B
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗
3,5914,0464,5014,9552023-Q12026-Q2Oct 2026$4,710B
historyforecast path80% interval
Probability distribution

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%$4,510B$4,710B$4,910BForecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval ($4,630B–$4,790B). Dashed line: point estimate ($4,710B).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§US private nonresidential fixed investment, 2026-Q3 first print

Resolver framing: this is BEA NIPA Table 5.3.5 line 2, Nonresidential, nominal seasonally adjusted annual rate. The ledger table value is in millions and the target unit is usd_billions, so resolution multiplies the official table value by 0.001.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked BEA's 2026 release schedule for the GDP advance estimate covering 2026-Q3.
↳ BEA lists GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026 on October 29, 2026 at 8:30 AM; the same schedule page lists GDP (Advance Estimate), 2nd Quarter 2026 on July 30, 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched current public BEA/FRED mirror history for PNFI, BEA account A008RC, quarterly SAAR billions of dollars.
↳ Recent fetched values were 2025-Q1 4137.819, 2025-Q2 4207.512, 2025-Q3 4293.474, 2025-Q4 4364.412, 2026-Q1 4490.516, and 2026-Q2 4623.657 usd_billions.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked BEA's Q2 2026 advance GDP release for current-quarter macro context and source assumptions.
↳ The Q2 2026 advance release reported real GDP +1.5 percent SAAR, current-dollar GDP +7.9 percent SAAR, real final sales to private domestic purchasers +3.9 percent, and PCE price index +5.1 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the BEA-derived DBnomics NIPA-T50305 A008RC-Q page for table identity and latest line value scale.
↳ DBnomics identifies BEA NIPA Table 5.3.5 line 2 A008RC-Q as Nonresidential quarterly and shows 2026-Q2=4,623,657 in the BEA table's millions scale, equivalent to 4623.657 usd_billions after the registered 0.001 transform.

Base rate/reference class: using the 2023-Q1 through 2026-Q2 quarterly level history, the outside-view one-quarter change averaged about 66.7 usd_billions. The recent five changes were stronger, about +69.7, +86.0, +70.9, +126.1, and +133.1, so pure persistence from 2026-Q2 would point somewhat above the long recent mean.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior is last observed PNFI level 4623.657 plus the 2023-Q1 to 2026-Q2 mean quarterly change of 66.7, giving 4690.4. I add about 20 for continued Q2 nominal momentum and equipment/IPP strength, while subtracting no explicit policy drag because financing-cost restraint is already visible in the recent level series, giving a point near 4710. For interval sizing, sigma is computed on level changes using consecutive quarters from 2023-Q1 to 2026-Q2; successive changes in the fetched history have sigma = 43.5 usd_billions, so 1.28*sigma = 55.7. I widen to an 80 usd_billions half-width because the September 2026 annual update can shift the level before the Q3 first print and the advance estimate still uses partial source data plus projections; final 80 percent bounds are 4710-80=4630 and 4710+80=4790.

Upside risk: a continuing AI/data-center equipment and software investment surge, stronger Q3 nominal GDP, or upward annual-update level revision would land above the interval. Downside risk: a pullback in nonresidential structures, weaker capital-goods imports/shipments, or a downward annual-update rebasing would land below the interval. An outside the interval outcome would most likely require both a large annual-update level shift and an unusually large Q3 source-data surprise.

Review disposition: accepted the reviewer suggestions to specify that the five straight recent increases run from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2 and to state explicitly that sigma is computed from consecutive quarterly level changes over 2023-Q1 to 2026-Q2; no required fixes were raised.

Key drivers

  • recent nominal PNFI level rose for five straight quarters from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2
  • Q2 advance release showed current-dollar GDP up 7.9 percent SAAR
  • BEA said Q2 investment growth reflected equipment and intellectual property gains partly offset by structures
  • September 2026 annual update can shift the level before the Q3 advance print
  • Q3 first print will include partial source data and BEA projections

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP advance release, NIPA Table 5.3.5 line 2
Resolution date
October 29, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first official BEA GDP advance-release print for 2026-Q3, NIPA Table 5.3.5, line 2 Nonresidential, nominal seasonally adjusted annual rate. Use the published table value transformed by multiplying the table's millions-of-dollars value by 0.001 to usd_billions. Do not use later second, third, annual-update, or comprehensive-revision values except insofar as BEA has already incorporated them into the first Q3 advance-release table on 2026-10-29.

Forecast history

Select a version to read its estimate and analysis.

Forecast versions, estimates, and intervals
VersionDateEstimate80% interval
gpt-5.5Sep 21, 2026$4,710B$4,618.6B–$4,802B
gpt-5.5 · selectedAug 17, 2026$4,710B$4,630B–$4,790B
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.5.11

pre-submit review · completed

The draft is publishable: resolver fields match the ledger target, the prior/update/interval logic is compact and coherent, and no blocking leakage or unit issue is apparent.

  • info optional_suggestion: Tighten the driver wording to specify the five straight increases run from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2.
  • info optional_suggestion: In the interval step, briefly state whether sigma is computed on level changes using 2023-Q1 to 2026-Q2 consecutive quarters.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the reviewer suggestions to specify that the five straight recent increases run from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2 and to state explicitly that sigma is computed from consecutive quarterly level changes over 2023-Q1 to 2026-Q2; no required fixes were raised.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the reviewer suggestions to specify that the five straight recent increases run from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2 and to state explicitly that sigma is computed from consecutive quarterly level changes over 2023-Q1 to 2026-Q2; no required fixes were raised.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§US private nonresidential fixed investment, 2026-Q3 first print

Resolver framing: this is BEA NIPA Table 5.3.5 line 2, Nonresidential, nominal seasonally adjusted annual rate. The ledger table value is in millions and the target unit is usd_billions, so resolution multiplies the official table value by 0.001.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked BEA's 2026 release schedule for the GDP advance estimate covering 2026-Q3.
↳ BEA lists GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026 on October 29, 2026 at 8:30 AM; the same schedule page lists GDP (Advance Estimate), 2nd Quarter 2026 on July 30, 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched current public BEA/FRED mirror history for PNFI, BEA account A008RC, quarterly SAAR billions of dollars.
↳ Recent fetched values were 2025-Q1 4137.819, 2025-Q2 4207.512, 2025-Q3 4293.474, 2025-Q4 4364.412, 2026-Q1 4490.516, and 2026-Q2 4623.657 usd_billions.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked BEA's Q2 2026 advance GDP release for current-quarter macro context and source assumptions.
↳ The Q2 2026 advance release reported real GDP +1.5 percent SAAR, current-dollar GDP +7.9 percent SAAR, real final sales to private domestic purchasers +3.9 percent, and PCE price index +5.1 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the BEA-derived DBnomics NIPA-T50305 A008RC-Q page for table identity and latest line value scale.
↳ DBnomics identifies BEA NIPA Table 5.3.5 line 2 A008RC-Q as Nonresidential quarterly and shows 2026-Q2=4,623,657 in the BEA table's millions scale, equivalent to 4623.657 usd_billions after the registered 0.001 transform.

Base rate/reference class: using the 2023-Q1 through 2026-Q2 quarterly level history, the outside-view one-quarter change averaged about 66.7 usd_billions. The recent five changes were stronger, about +69.7, +86.0, +70.9, +126.1, and +133.1, so pure persistence from 2026-Q2 would point somewhat above the long recent mean.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior is last observed PNFI level 4623.657 plus the 2023-Q1 to 2026-Q2 mean quarterly change of 66.7, giving 4690.4. I add about 20 for continued Q2 nominal momentum and equipment/IPP strength, while subtracting no explicit policy drag because financing-cost restraint is already visible in the recent level series, giving a point near 4710. For interval sizing, sigma is computed on level changes using consecutive quarters from 2023-Q1 to 2026-Q2; successive changes in the fetched history have sigma = 43.5 usd_billions, so 1.28*sigma = 55.7. I widen to an 80 usd_billions half-width because the September 2026 annual update can shift the level before the Q3 first print and the advance estimate still uses partial source data plus projections; final 80 percent bounds are 4710-80=4630 and 4710+80=4790.

Upside risk: a continuing AI/data-center equipment and software investment surge, stronger Q3 nominal GDP, or upward annual-update level revision would land above the interval. Downside risk: a pullback in nonresidential structures, weaker capital-goods imports/shipments, or a downward annual-update rebasing would land below the interval. An outside the interval outcome would most likely require both a large annual-update level shift and an unusually large Q3 source-data surprise.

Review disposition: accepted the reviewer suggestions to specify that the five straight recent increases run from 2025-Q1 through 2026-Q2 and to state explicitly that sigma is computed from consecutive quarterly level changes over 2023-Q1 to 2026-Q2; no required fixes were raised.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
$4,710B[$4,630B · $4,790B]
Target metadata

Data point: bea.private_nonresidential_fixed_investment.2026_q3.first_print

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