thesisPrototype

Government data

US real average hourly earnings MoM, August 2026

What will the BLS first print for seasonally adjusted real average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, over-the-month percent change, be for August 2026?

Overdue · was due Sep 11, 2026

The resolver has no route for this target's reference. The target was registered with a generic source link rather than a resolver binding.

NO_ROUTE_GENERIC_URL · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

-0.1%
-0.6%–0.4%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%-1.35%-0.1%1.15%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (-0.6%–0.4%). Dashed line: point estimate (-0.1%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§Forecast for BLS real average hourly earnings MoM, August 2026

Resolver is the all-employees, private nonfarm payrolls, seasonally adjusted variant in BLS Real Earnings Table A-1. The target is the first-print over-the-month percent change for August 2026, not later revised CES or CPI database values.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS Real Earnings release schedule lookup for August 2026 reference month
↳ BLS schedule lists Real Earnings for August 2026 with release date September 11, 2026 and release time 08:30 AM ET; this verifies resolutionDate 2026-09-11.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS current Real Earnings Table A-1 for recent all-employees real hourly earnings and components
↳ Latest Table A-1 shows real average hourly earnings levels of 11.25 in April 2026, 11.23 in May 2026, and 11.32 in June 2026; over-the-month percent changes were -0.5, -0.2, and 0.8; CPI-U changes were 0.6, 0.5, and -0.4; nominal average hourly earnings changes were 0.2, 0.3, and 0.3.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS archived Real Earnings releases for the recent reference class
↳ Archived Table A-1 prints used for the selected recent reference class include July 2025 0.2, August 2025 -0.1, September 2025 -0.1, December 2025 -0.3, January 2026 0.3, February 2026 0.2, March 2026 -0.6, April 2026 -0.5, May 2026 -0.2, and June 2026 0.8 percent real average hourly earnings month-over-month.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS July 2026 Employment Situation for nominal wage and labor-market setup before August
↳ The July 2026 Employment Situation reported nonfarm payroll employment -23,000, unemployment rate 4.1 percent, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls 37.62 dollars, a +2 cent change, and average weekly hours 34.3.

Base rate/reference class: the selected recent official real-hourly-earnings MoM sample is centered near zero, with a mean around -0.03 percent and median -0.10 percent. Because this is already a change series, the sample values themselves are the realized dispersion input.

Prior/update/interval: persistence/reference-class prior is the selected recent BLS Table A-1 monthly real average hourly earnings change sample [0.2, -0.1, -0.1, -0.3, 0.3, 0.2, -0.6, -0.5, -0.2, 0.8], mean = -0.03 and median = -0.10. Update components: July nominal AHE was only +2 cents to 37.62, suggesting softer wage momentum; for August I assume nominal AHE about +0.25 percent and CPI-U about +0.30 percent, so real hourly earnings is approximately 0.25 - 0.30 = -0.05 percent, rounded to -0.1. The point remains anchored near the prior median, so the wage/CPI inside-view adjustment is directional but not a large move. Sample dispersion gives sigma = 0.42 percentage points, and 1.28*sigma = 0.54 percentage points; applying that to -0.1 gives about -0.64 to 0.44, rounded to an 80 percent interval of -0.6 to 0.4.

Upside risk is a soft August CPI print or a rebound in hourly earnings after July's +2 cents, which would land above the interval if real hourly earnings rose more than 0.4 percent. Downside risk is another hot CPI print or weak mix-adjusted wages, which would land below the interval if the published real change is less than -0.6 percent. Outside the interval would most likely require an energy-driven CPI surprise or a large composition shock in payroll earnings.

Review disposition: accepted the optional clarifications to describe the history as a selected recent reference class and to state that the inside-view wage/CPI update does not move the point far from the prior median; no required fixes were raised.

Key drivers

  • Nominal average hourly earnings growth slowed to near flat in July
  • August CPI is likely to absorb most nominal wage growth
  • June real-earnings jump was CPI-deflation driven and unlikely to persist
  • Recent real hourly earnings changes have high month-to-month CPI noise

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Real Earnings Table A-1
Resolution date
September 11, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first BLS Real Earnings Table A-1 print for August 2026, row 'Real average hourly earnings' under 'OVER-THE-MONTH PERCENT CHANGE' for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, seasonally adjusted. Use the value as published in percent, normally to one decimal place, on the scheduled September 11, 2026 release; ignore later revisions.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.5.7

pre-submit review · completed

The draft is publication-ready: resolver, first-print date, prior, update logic, volatility-based interval, tails, and JSON fields are coherent with the target contract.

  • info optional_suggestion: Clarify why the historical reference class uses a non-contiguous 10-month sample rather than all recent first prints, or state that it is a selected recent sample.
  • info optional_suggestion: Consider noting that the point remains anchored near the prior median, so the inside-view wage/CPI update is directional but not a large move.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the optional clarifications to describe the history as a selected recent reference class and to state that the inside-view wage/CPI update does not move the point far from the prior median; no required fixes were raised.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the optional clarifications to describe the history as a selected recent reference class and to state that the inside-view wage/CPI update does not move the point far from the prior median; no required fixes were raised.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§Forecast for BLS real average hourly earnings MoM, August 2026

Resolver is the all-employees, private nonfarm payrolls, seasonally adjusted variant in BLS Real Earnings Table A-1. The target is the first-print over-the-month percent change for August 2026, not later revised CES or CPI database values.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS Real Earnings release schedule lookup for August 2026 reference month
↳ BLS schedule lists Real Earnings for August 2026 with release date September 11, 2026 and release time 08:30 AM ET; this verifies resolutionDate 2026-09-11.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS current Real Earnings Table A-1 for recent all-employees real hourly earnings and components
↳ Latest Table A-1 shows real average hourly earnings levels of 11.25 in April 2026, 11.23 in May 2026, and 11.32 in June 2026; over-the-month percent changes were -0.5, -0.2, and 0.8; CPI-U changes were 0.6, 0.5, and -0.4; nominal average hourly earnings changes were 0.2, 0.3, and 0.3.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS archived Real Earnings releases for the recent reference class
↳ Archived Table A-1 prints used for the selected recent reference class include July 2025 0.2, August 2025 -0.1, September 2025 -0.1, December 2025 -0.3, January 2026 0.3, February 2026 0.2, March 2026 -0.6, April 2026 -0.5, May 2026 -0.2, and June 2026 0.8 percent real average hourly earnings month-over-month.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS July 2026 Employment Situation for nominal wage and labor-market setup before August
↳ The July 2026 Employment Situation reported nonfarm payroll employment -23,000, unemployment rate 4.1 percent, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls 37.62 dollars, a +2 cent change, and average weekly hours 34.3.

Base rate/reference class: the selected recent official real-hourly-earnings MoM sample is centered near zero, with a mean around -0.03 percent and median -0.10 percent. Because this is already a change series, the sample values themselves are the realized dispersion input.

Prior/update/interval: persistence/reference-class prior is the selected recent BLS Table A-1 monthly real average hourly earnings change sample [0.2, -0.1, -0.1, -0.3, 0.3, 0.2, -0.6, -0.5, -0.2, 0.8], mean = -0.03 and median = -0.10. Update components: July nominal AHE was only +2 cents to 37.62, suggesting softer wage momentum; for August I assume nominal AHE about +0.25 percent and CPI-U about +0.30 percent, so real hourly earnings is approximately 0.25 - 0.30 = -0.05 percent, rounded to -0.1. The point remains anchored near the prior median, so the wage/CPI inside-view adjustment is directional but not a large move. Sample dispersion gives sigma = 0.42 percentage points, and 1.28*sigma = 0.54 percentage points; applying that to -0.1 gives about -0.64 to 0.44, rounded to an 80 percent interval of -0.6 to 0.4.

Upside risk is a soft August CPI print or a rebound in hourly earnings after July's +2 cents, which would land above the interval if real hourly earnings rose more than 0.4 percent. Downside risk is another hot CPI print or weak mix-adjusted wages, which would land below the interval if the published real change is less than -0.6 percent. Outside the interval would most likely require an energy-driven CPI surprise or a large composition shock in payroll earnings.

Review disposition: accepted the optional clarifications to describe the history as a selected recent reference class and to state that the inside-view wage/CPI update does not move the point far from the prior median; no required fixes were raised.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
-0.1%[-0.6% · 0.4%]
Target metadata

Data point: bls.real_earnings.avg_hourly_mom.2026-08.first_print

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