thesisPrototype

Government data

US revolving credit growth, Jun 2026

Federal Reserve G.19 percent change of total revolving consumer credit (REVOLSLAR), June 2026, seasonally adjusted annual rate, first print.

Forecast

+3.8%
-2.6%–+10.2%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%-12.2%+3.8%+19.8%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (-2.6%–+10.2%). Dashed line: point estimate (+3.8%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Observed outcomeinside 80% interval
actual
+6.0%
forecast
+3.8% with 80% interval [-2.6%, +10.2%]
error
+2.2% · absolute +2.2%
cdf score
CRPS 1.69 · PIT 0.64
source
federal_reserve_g19 G.19 Consumer Credit, outstanding, seasonally adjusted

First print for 2026-06 captured from https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/alfredgraph.csv?id=REVOLSLAR&vintage_date=2026-08-07 on the official release date named by the cell's resolver.

Analysis

§US revolving consumer credit annual-rate forecast for June 2026

Framing and exact resolver: the target is Federal Reserve G.19 Consumer Credit, series REVOLSLAR, the seasonally adjusted annual-rate percent change of total revolving consumer credit for June 2026, first print. All anchors use the same seasonally adjusted annual-rate percent-change variant; the canonical ledger binds resolution to the ALFRED/FRED first-vintage REVOLSLAR feed while the underlying statistical release is Federal Reserve G.19.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the Federal Reserve August 2026 statistical release calendar for G.19 Consumer Credit.
↳ The Federal Reserve August 2026 calendar lists Statistical Releases with G.19 - Consumer Credit at 3:00 p.m. on release date 7, verifying the 2026-08-07 resolution date.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read the Federal Reserve current G.19 release table for the latest same-variant observations.
↳ The July 8, 2026 G.19 release covers May 2026; the seasonally adjusted annual-rate Revolving row shows May -4.7, Apr 10.4, Mar 9.7, Q1 2026 4.1, and 2025 3.1 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: history.lookupmodel report
Read FRED table data for REVOLSLAR as a public mirror of Board G.19 history.
↳ REVOLSLAR recent observations are May 2026 -4.71, Apr 2026 10.36, Mar 2026 9.66, Feb 2026 1.03, Jan 2026 1.64; 2025 monthly values include Dec 7.04 and Nov -0.70.
▸ Reported tool use: methodology.lookupmodel report
Checked the Federal Reserve G.19 about page for how annual growth rates are calculated.
↳ The G.19 methodology says percent changes and levels are calculated from unrounded data; revolving credit is 1 of the major credit types, and the table reports annual growth rates, levels, and flows of outstanding credit.

Base rate / reference class: I use the 2024-Jan through 2026-May REVOLSLAR sample as a current-rate-regime reference class rather than a longer pre-2024 sample. Monthly REVOLSLAR values are centered around low single-digit growth but have sharp reversals; the sample mean is about 3.96, while the latest five months average 3.60, so a point forecast near 3.8 keeps the base rate while not chasing May's -4.71 print.

Prior/update/interval: persistence/base-rate prior is the 2024-Jan through 2026-May REVOLSLAR sample, n = 29, mean = 3.96; current-release adjustment is -0.2 for May weakness after Mar 9.66 and Apr 10.36 strength, plus about 0.0 for policy/rate mechanism because credit-card rates remain high but stable. For this change-rate series I size uncertainty from the sample standard deviation of the annual-rate monthly values themselves, not forecast-error volatility: sigma = 4.96, so the 80% half-width is 1.28*sigma = 1.28*4.96 = 6.35. Point = 3.8; interval = 3.8 +/- 6.35 = [-2.55, 10.15], rounded to [-2.6, 10.2].

Counter-considerations: upside risk is another rebound like March-April if card balances recover after May's paydown, which would land above the interval if annualized revolving growth exceeds 10.2. Downside risk is a second consecutive contraction from deleveraging or tighter card credit, which would land below the interval if growth is below -2.6. Outside the interval would require a monthly swing larger than typical current-regime dispersion, not just normal noise.

Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by tying resolutionSource, resolutionSourceUrl, resolutionRule, and sourceContext to the canonical ALFRED/FRED REVOLSLAR first-vintage binding while preserving the substance that the statistic is the Federal Reserve G.19 first print; accepted the optional clarifications on the 2024-Jan through 2026-May reference class and sigma as the sample standard deviation of monthly annual-rate values.

Key drivers

  • revolving credit annualized monthly growth is volatile
  • March and April strength partly reversed in May
  • credit-card borrowing remains constrained by elevated rates
  • June forecast uses current-regime dispersion rather than cadence inference

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
ALFRED/FRED first-vintage mirror of Federal Reserve Board G.19 Consumer Credit
Resolved
August 8, 2026
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first-vintage ALFRED observation for REVOLSLAR dated 2026-06, corresponding to the first official Federal Reserve G.19 Consumer Credit print for June 2026 in the Consumer Credit Outstanding table, seasonally adjusted, row Revolving under Total percent change (annual rate). Use the value first available for the August 7, 2026 release vintage; ignore later revisions. Record in percent growth at annual rate, using the official displayed precision or the unrounded first-vintage REVOLSLAR value if the ALFRED/FRED file exposes more precision.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.4.0

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is methodologically coherent, but its resolver/source fields conflict with the canonical ledger sourceBinding.

  • blocking resolver: The draft resolves to the Federal Reserve release URL and says ALFRED/FRED is only a history mirror, while the canonical ledger contract binds this target to the alfred-fred adapter, allowed host alfred.stlouisfed.org, sourceSeriesId REVOLSLAR, and sourceUrl https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/alfredgraph.csv?id=REVOLSLAR.
  • info optional_suggestion: Add one sentence saying the 2024-Jan through 2026-May sample was chosen as the current-rate-regime reference class rather than a longer pre-2024 sample.
  • info optional_suggestion: State whether the interval sigma is the sample standard deviation of monthly annual-rate values, not forecast-error volatility, to remove any ambiguity.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by tying resolutionSource, resolutionSourceUrl, resolutionRule, and sourceContext to the canonical ALFRED/FRED REVOLSLAR first-vintage binding while preserving the substance that the statistic is the Federal Reserve G.19 first print; accepted the optional clarifications on the 2024-Jan through 2026-May reference class and sigma as the sample standard deviation of monthly annual-rate values.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by tying resolutionSource, resolutionSourceUrl, resolutionRule, and sourceContext to the canonical ALFRED/FRED REVOLSLAR first-vintage binding while preserving the substance that the statistic is the Federal Reserve G.19 first print; accepted the optional clarifications on the 2024-Jan through 2026-May reference class and sigma as the sample standard deviation of monthly annual-rate values.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by tying resolutionSource, resolutionSourceUrl, resolutionRule, and sourceContext to the canonical ALFRED/FRED REVOLSLAR first-vintage binding while preserving the substance that the statistic is the Federal Reserve G.19 first print; accepted the optional clarifications on the 2024-Jan through 2026-May reference class and sigma as the sample standard deviation of monthly annual-rate values.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§US revolving consumer credit annual-rate forecast for June 2026

Framing and exact resolver: the target is Federal Reserve G.19 Consumer Credit, series REVOLSLAR, the seasonally adjusted annual-rate percent change of total revolving consumer credit for June 2026, first print. All anchors use the same seasonally adjusted annual-rate percent-change variant; the canonical ledger binds resolution to the ALFRED/FRED first-vintage REVOLSLAR feed while the underlying statistical release is Federal Reserve G.19.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the Federal Reserve August 2026 statistical release calendar for G.19 Consumer Credit.
↳ The Federal Reserve August 2026 calendar lists Statistical Releases with G.19 - Consumer Credit at 3:00 p.m. on release date 7, verifying the 2026-08-07 resolution date.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Read the Federal Reserve current G.19 release table for the latest same-variant observations.
↳ The July 8, 2026 G.19 release covers May 2026; the seasonally adjusted annual-rate Revolving row shows May -4.7, Apr 10.4, Mar 9.7, Q1 2026 4.1, and 2025 3.1 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: history.lookupmodel report
Read FRED table data for REVOLSLAR as a public mirror of Board G.19 history.
↳ REVOLSLAR recent observations are May 2026 -4.71, Apr 2026 10.36, Mar 2026 9.66, Feb 2026 1.03, Jan 2026 1.64; 2025 monthly values include Dec 7.04 and Nov -0.70.
▸ Reported tool use: methodology.lookupmodel report
Checked the Federal Reserve G.19 about page for how annual growth rates are calculated.
↳ The G.19 methodology says percent changes and levels are calculated from unrounded data; revolving credit is 1 of the major credit types, and the table reports annual growth rates, levels, and flows of outstanding credit.

Base rate / reference class: I use the 2024-Jan through 2026-May REVOLSLAR sample as a current-rate-regime reference class rather than a longer pre-2024 sample. Monthly REVOLSLAR values are centered around low single-digit growth but have sharp reversals; the sample mean is about 3.96, while the latest five months average 3.60, so a point forecast near 3.8 keeps the base rate while not chasing May's -4.71 print.

Prior/update/interval: persistence/base-rate prior is the 2024-Jan through 2026-May REVOLSLAR sample, n = 29, mean = 3.96; current-release adjustment is -0.2 for May weakness after Mar 9.66 and Apr 10.36 strength, plus about 0.0 for policy/rate mechanism because credit-card rates remain high but stable. For this change-rate series I size uncertainty from the sample standard deviation of the annual-rate monthly values themselves, not forecast-error volatility: sigma = 4.96, so the 80% half-width is 1.28*sigma = 1.28*4.96 = 6.35. Point = 3.8; interval = 3.8 +/- 6.35 = [-2.55, 10.15], rounded to [-2.6, 10.2].

Counter-considerations: upside risk is another rebound like March-April if card balances recover after May's paydown, which would land above the interval if annualized revolving growth exceeds 10.2. Downside risk is a second consecutive contraction from deleveraging or tighter card credit, which would land below the interval if growth is below -2.6. Outside the interval would require a monthly swing larger than typical current-regime dispersion, not just normal noise.

Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by tying resolutionSource, resolutionSourceUrl, resolutionRule, and sourceContext to the canonical ALFRED/FRED REVOLSLAR first-vintage binding while preserving the substance that the statistic is the Federal Reserve G.19 first print; accepted the optional clarifications on the 2024-Jan through 2026-May reference class and sigma as the sample standard deviation of monthly annual-rate values.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
+3.8%[-2.6% · +10.2%]
Target metadata

Data point: fed.g19.consumer_credit_revolving_annual_rate.2026_06.first_print

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