thesisPrototype

Government data

US telework rate, September 2026

What will the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics first report for the not seasonally adjusted CPS telework rate, Total 16 years and over, percent of people at work who teleworked or worked at home for pay, in September 2026?

Forecast

21.9%
21.3%–22.5%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗
21.121.722.222.82026-032026-08Oct 202621.9%
historyforecast path80% interval
Probability distribution

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%20.4%21.9%23.4%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (21.3%–22.5%). Dashed line: point estimate (21.9%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§US CPS Telework Share Forecast

Resolver framing: this targets the BLS CPS Table A-41 national, not seasonally adjusted telework rate for September 2026, Total 16 years and over, percent of people at work who teleworked or worked at home for pay. The exact BLS series page identifies series LNU0201B46B as Percent, Persons who teleworked; percent of total at work.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the official BLS Employment Situation release schedule for the September 2026 reference month and cross-checked the current Table A-41 page.
↳ BLS schedules Employment Situation for September 2026 on 2026-10-02 at 08:30 AM Eastern; the registered Thesis bounded target uses resolutionDate 2026-10-08. The current A-41 August 2026 table shows Total, 16 years and over telework share of 21.6 percent, with 155,455 thousand total people at work and 33,633 thousand teleworking.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched recent BLS data-series values from data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU0201B46B.
↳ Recent official values for LNU0201B46B were 2026-01 23.0, 2026-02 22.7, 2026-03 22.6, 2026-04 21.7, 2026-05 21.8, 2026-06 21.7, and 2026-07 22.2 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched latest BLS A-41 first-print table value and compared it with the series history.
↳ The BLS A-41 August 2026 table reports 21.6 percent for Total, 16 years and over; recent same-series context includes 2026-03 22.6, 2026-04 21.7, 2026-05 21.8, 2026-06 21.7, and 2026-07 22.2 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched older same-series monthly values to form a reference class for seasonality and level.
↳ Same-series annual September anchors were 2023-09 19.8, 2024-09 23.7, and 2025-09 22.3 percent; recent August-to-September moves were +0.3 in 2023, +0.9 in 2024, and +0.2 in 2025.

Base rate/reference class: the recent 2026 level is a little below the 2024-2025 plateau, but the last six observed prints average 21.93 percent and September has usually not been lower than August in the short telework series. I therefore start from persistence around 21.6 to 22.0 rather than extrapolating the April-August dip linearly.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior from the last official print is 21.6 percent; historical sample for uncertainty is the 2026 Jan-Aug sequence 23.0, 22.7, 22.6, 21.7, 21.8, 21.7, 22.2, 21.6. Adjustments are +0.2 for September seasonality, +0.1 for mean reversion toward the last-six-print average of 21.93, and 0.0 for policy-mechanism effects, giving 21.9. Successive changes are -0.3, -0.1, -0.9, +0.1, -0.1, +0.5, -0.6, so sigma = 0.46 percentage point using the sample standard deviation; 1.28*sigma = 0.59, rounded to a 0.6-point half-width, implying 21.3 to 22.5. This is a deliberately recent-volatility interval based on a short Jan-Aug 2026 change sample, not a long-run structural interval.

Counter-considerations: upside risk is a September rebound like 2024, which would land above the interval if telework jumps roughly 1.0 point or more from August. Downside risk is a renewed office-return or composition move that pushes the rate below 21.3. Outside the interval would most likely require a large month-specific CPS composition shift rather than a visible policy change.

Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by setting resolutionDate to the registered bounded target date 2026-10-08 while preserving the BLS A-41 first-print resolver and noting the 2026-10-02 BLS schedule discrepancy; accepted the optional interval clarification about the short recent-volatility sample; rejected no critique items.

Key drivers

  • Recent 2026 level is near 22 percent
  • August 2026 dipped to 21.6 percent
  • September has shown modest positive seasonality in available telework history
  • Monthly CPS telework readings are noisy by several tenths
  • No known policy break before the September reference week

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation, CPS Table A-41
Resolution date
October 8, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first official BLS print in CPS Table A-41 for September 2026: Total, 16 years and over; Percent distribution; People who teleworked or worked at home for pay. Use the not seasonally adjusted percent shown by BLS, in percent and rounded as published, normally to one decimal place. Do not use later revisions or corrected tables after the first public print.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.5.11

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is methodologically usable, but it has a blocking mismatch with the ledger resolution date contract.

  • blocking resolver: The draft sets resolutionDate to 2026-10-02, but the ledger target contract uses the bounded expectedReleaseWindow ending 2026-10-08 for this registered target.
  • info optional_suggestion: Mention that the 0.46-point sigma is based on a very short Jan-Aug 2026 change sample, so the interval is a deliberately recent-volatility interval rather than a long-run model interval.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by setting resolutionDate to the registered bounded target date 2026-10-08 while preserving the BLS A-41 first-print resolver and noting the 2026-10-02 BLS schedule discrepancy; accepted the optional interval clarification about the short recent-volatility sample; rejected no critique items.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by setting resolutionDate to the registered bounded target date 2026-10-08 while preserving the BLS A-41 first-print resolver and noting the 2026-10-02 BLS schedule discrepancy; accepted the optional interval clarification about the short recent-volatility sample; rejected no critique items.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§US CPS Telework Share Forecast

Resolver framing: this targets the BLS CPS Table A-41 national, not seasonally adjusted telework rate for September 2026, Total 16 years and over, percent of people at work who teleworked or worked at home for pay. The exact BLS series page identifies series LNU0201B46B as Percent, Persons who teleworked; percent of total at work.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the official BLS Employment Situation release schedule for the September 2026 reference month and cross-checked the current Table A-41 page.
↳ BLS schedules Employment Situation for September 2026 on 2026-10-02 at 08:30 AM Eastern; the registered Thesis bounded target uses resolutionDate 2026-10-08. The current A-41 August 2026 table shows Total, 16 years and over telework share of 21.6 percent, with 155,455 thousand total people at work and 33,633 thousand teleworking.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched recent BLS data-series values from data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU0201B46B.
↳ Recent official values for LNU0201B46B were 2026-01 23.0, 2026-02 22.7, 2026-03 22.6, 2026-04 21.7, 2026-05 21.8, 2026-06 21.7, and 2026-07 22.2 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched latest BLS A-41 first-print table value and compared it with the series history.
↳ The BLS A-41 August 2026 table reports 21.6 percent for Total, 16 years and over; recent same-series context includes 2026-03 22.6, 2026-04 21.7, 2026-05 21.8, 2026-06 21.7, and 2026-07 22.2 percent.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched older same-series monthly values to form a reference class for seasonality and level.
↳ Same-series annual September anchors were 2023-09 19.8, 2024-09 23.7, and 2025-09 22.3 percent; recent August-to-September moves were +0.3 in 2023, +0.9 in 2024, and +0.2 in 2025.

Base rate/reference class: the recent 2026 level is a little below the 2024-2025 plateau, but the last six observed prints average 21.93 percent and September has usually not been lower than August in the short telework series. I therefore start from persistence around 21.6 to 22.0 rather than extrapolating the April-August dip linearly.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior from the last official print is 21.6 percent; historical sample for uncertainty is the 2026 Jan-Aug sequence 23.0, 22.7, 22.6, 21.7, 21.8, 21.7, 22.2, 21.6. Adjustments are +0.2 for September seasonality, +0.1 for mean reversion toward the last-six-print average of 21.93, and 0.0 for policy-mechanism effects, giving 21.9. Successive changes are -0.3, -0.1, -0.9, +0.1, -0.1, +0.5, -0.6, so sigma = 0.46 percentage point using the sample standard deviation; 1.28*sigma = 0.59, rounded to a 0.6-point half-width, implying 21.3 to 22.5. This is a deliberately recent-volatility interval based on a short Jan-Aug 2026 change sample, not a long-run structural interval.

Counter-considerations: upside risk is a September rebound like 2024, which would land above the interval if telework jumps roughly 1.0 point or more from August. Downside risk is a renewed office-return or composition move that pushes the rate below 21.3. Outside the interval would most likely require a large month-specific CPS composition shift rather than a visible policy change.

Review disposition: accepted the blocking resolver critique by setting resolutionDate to the registered bounded target date 2026-10-08 while preserving the BLS A-41 first-print resolver and noting the 2026-10-02 BLS schedule discrepancy; accepted the optional interval clarification about the short recent-volatility sample; rejected no critique items.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
21.9%[21.3% · 22.5%]
Target metadata

Data point: bls.cps.telework_share.2026-09.first_print

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