thesisPrototype

Government data

US Q2 2026 preliminary unit labor costs

What will BLS first report for nonfarm business sector unit labor costs, seasonally adjusted percent change from previous quarter at an annual rate, in 2026 Q2 preliminary Productivity and Costs?

Forecast

+3.0%
-0.8%–+6.8%
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%-6.5%+3.0%+12.5%Forecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (-0.8%–+6.8%). Dashed line: point estimate (+3.0%).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Observed outcomeinside 80% interval
actual
+1.3%
forecast
+3.0% with 80% interval [-0.8%, +6.8%]
error
-1.7% · absolute +1.7%
cdf score
CRPS 1.13 · PIT 0.32
source
bls_productivity Productivity and Costs, nonfarm business sector

First print for 2026-04 captured from https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/alfredgraph.csv?id=PRS85006112&vintage_date=2026-08-06 on the official release date named by the cell's resolver.

Analysis

§US nonfarm unit labor costs, Q2 2026 preliminary

Framing and exact resolver: this is BLS nonfarm business sector unit labor costs, seasonally adjusted percent change from previous quarter at an annual rate, first print for 2026 Q2. The official underlying publication is BLS Productivity and Costs, while the canonical ledger binding resolves through the ALFRED/FRED first-print mirror for PRS85006112.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS Productivity and Costs release schedule lookup
↳ BLS schedule lists Second Quarter 2026 (P) on Aug. 06, 2026 at 08:30 AM and Second Quarter 2026 (R) on Sep. 03, 2026 at 08:30 AM.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS current Productivity and Costs Table 2 lookup for the same nonfarm business variant
↳ BLS Table 2 for 2026 Q1 revised shows nonfarm business unit labor costs 1.8, labor productivity 0.3, output 1.0, hours worked 0.7, and hourly compensation 2.1, all seasonally adjusted annualized rates.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS preliminary/recent-release reference class lookup
↳ Recent first prints for the target variant were 2026 Q1 unit labor costs 2.3 with productivity 0.8 and hourly compensation 3.1; 2025 Q4 unit labor costs 2.8 with productivity 2.8 and hourly compensation 5.7; 2025 Q3 unit labor costs -1.9 with productivity 4.9 and hourly compensation 2.9; 2025 Q2 unit labor costs 1.6 with productivity 2.4 and hourly compensation 4.0.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS June 2026 Employment Situation lookup for Q2 labor-cost and hours signals
↳ BLS reported June 2026 total nonfarm payroll employment +57,000, unemployment 4.2, average hourly earnings $37.64, average hourly earnings up 3.5 percent over the year, average weekly hours 34.3, and aggregate weekly hours index 116.8 versus 116.6 in April and 116.7 in May.
▸ Reported tool use: mirror.lookupmodel report
FRED/ALFRED PRS85006112 recent history mirror check
↳ FRED/ALFRED PRS85006112 reports Q1 2026 1.8, Q4 2025 2.1, Q3 2025 1.0, Q2 2025 -2.9, and Q1 2025 7.3 for Nonfarm Business Sector: Unit Labor Costs for All Workers, percent change at annual rate, seasonally adjusted.

Reference class and base rate: using the same BLS nonfarm business unit-labor-costs variant, recent revised values from 2021 Q3 through 2026 Q1 average about 2.9 percent annualized, while the last four preliminary first prints before this target average about 1.2 percent but with a shutdown/benchmark-distorted negative Q3 2025. I weight the broader base rate more than the short preliminary sequence because this series is mechanically noisy and revised.

Variant control: all anchors above are nonfarm business sector, seasonally adjusted, percent change from previous quarter at an annual rate. I do not mix in manufacturing, year-over-year, index-level, or final-vintage-only variants for the point forecast.

Prior/update/interval: persistence/base-rate prior is 2.9 from the 2021 Q3-2026 Q1 BLS revised-vintage reference class; no separate AR or time-series model was used beyond this persistence/base-rate anchor. Update components: Q1 revised ULC of 1.8 pulls slightly down, June payroll-hours softness with aggregate weekly hours 116.6 in April, 116.7 in May, and 116.8 in June supports positive productivity but not a boom, and 3.5 percent year-over-year hourly earnings plus recent compensation volatility keep compensation growth near 3.5-4.0. Net update leaves point near 3.0. Interval method uses realized dispersion of same-series quarterly annualized revised-vintage values [8.0, 3.5, 7.2, 3.5, 7.0, -1.7, 2.2, 2.4, 1.2, 1.2, 5.5, 1.1, 1.1, 2.9, 7.3, -2.9, 1.0, 2.1, 1.8]; sample sigma = 3.0, so 80 percent half-width is about 1.28*sigma = 1.28*3.0 = 3.8. Point 3.0 minus/plus 3.8 gives -0.8 to 6.8.

Counter-considerations: upside risk is a compensation-per-hour jump with only modest output growth, which would land above the interval if preliminary hourly compensation prints near 8 percent and productivity is flat or negative. Downside risk is a strong Q2 output/productivity first print combined with subdued compensation, which would land below the interval if productivity exceeds compensation by more than about 1 percentage point annualized.

Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSource and resolutionSourceUrl to the ledger-bound ALFRED/FRED PRS85006112 first-print mirror while keeping BLS as the official underlying publication in reasoning; accepted the model-prior critique by stating that no separate AR/time-series model was used; accepted the optional clarification that the interval volatility sample is revised-vintage history.

Key drivers

  • Q1 unit labor costs were moderate after downward revision
  • private payroll hours were nearly flat through June
  • nominal earnings growth remains near 3.5 percent year over year
  • productivity first prints are volatile because output and compensation source data are incomplete
  • unit labor costs mechanically rise when hourly compensation outpaces productivity

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
ALFRED/FRED first-print mirror of BLS Productivity and Costs series PRS85006112
Resolved
August 8, 2026
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first ALFRED/FRED vintage for PRS85006112 reflecting the BLS Productivity and Costs preliminary second-quarter 2026 value for nonfarm business sector unit labor costs, seasonally adjusted percent change from previous quarter at an annual rate, rounded to one decimal place as published for the August 6, 2026 first print; ignore later revised releases and later data-vintage changes.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · fast · v2.4.0

pre-submit review · completed

The draft is broadly publishable but needs resolver alignment with the canonical ALFRED first-print binding and a clearer statement on the time-series/model prior.

  • blocking resolver: The forecast JSON names BLS Table 2 as the resolution source and URL, while the canonical ledger contract binds this target to the ALFRED/FRED adapter, allowed host alfred.stlouisfed.org, field PRS85006112, first_print policy, and sourceUrl https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/alfredgraph.csv?id=PRS85006112.
  • warning model_prior: The draft uses a persistence/base-rate prior but does not clearly say whether a time-series or model prior was used or intentionally ruled out.
  • info optional_suggestion: Clarify that the volatility sample used for the interval is revised-vintage history rather than preliminary first-print history, if that is the intended sample.
  • info optional_suggestion: Make the resolver text distinguish official BLS publication from the ledger's ALFRED first-print mirror without changing the contracted target.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSource and resolutionSourceUrl to the ledger-bound ALFRED/FRED PRS85006112 first-print mirror while keeping BLS as the official underlying publication in reasoning; accepted the model-prior critique by stating that no separate AR/time-series model was used; accepted the optional clarification that the interval volatility sample is revised-vintage history.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSource and resolutionSourceUrl to the ledger-bound ALFRED/FRED PRS85006112 first-print mirror while keeping BLS as the official underlying publication in reasoning; accepted the model-prior critique by stating that no separate AR/time-series model was used; accepted the optional clarification that the interval volatility sample is revised-vintage history.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSource and resolutionSourceUrl to the ledger-bound ALFRED/FRED PRS85006112 first-print mirror while keeping BLS as the official underlying publication in reasoning; accepted the model-prior critique by stating that no separate AR/time-series model was used; accepted the optional clarification that the interval volatility sample is revised-vintage history.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSource and resolutionSourceUrl to the ledger-bound ALFRED/FRED PRS85006112 first-print mirror while keeping BLS as the official underlying publication in reasoning; accepted the model-prior critique by stating that no separate AR/time-series model was used; accepted the optional clarification that the interval volatility sample is revised-vintage history.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§US nonfarm unit labor costs, Q2 2026 preliminary

Framing and exact resolver: this is BLS nonfarm business sector unit labor costs, seasonally adjusted percent change from previous quarter at an annual rate, first print for 2026 Q2. The official underlying publication is BLS Productivity and Costs, while the canonical ledger binding resolves through the ALFRED/FRED first-print mirror for PRS85006112.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS Productivity and Costs release schedule lookup
↳ BLS schedule lists Second Quarter 2026 (P) on Aug. 06, 2026 at 08:30 AM and Second Quarter 2026 (R) on Sep. 03, 2026 at 08:30 AM.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS current Productivity and Costs Table 2 lookup for the same nonfarm business variant
↳ BLS Table 2 for 2026 Q1 revised shows nonfarm business unit labor costs 1.8, labor productivity 0.3, output 1.0, hours worked 0.7, and hourly compensation 2.1, all seasonally adjusted annualized rates.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS preliminary/recent-release reference class lookup
↳ Recent first prints for the target variant were 2026 Q1 unit labor costs 2.3 with productivity 0.8 and hourly compensation 3.1; 2025 Q4 unit labor costs 2.8 with productivity 2.8 and hourly compensation 5.7; 2025 Q3 unit labor costs -1.9 with productivity 4.9 and hourly compensation 2.9; 2025 Q2 unit labor costs 1.6 with productivity 2.4 and hourly compensation 4.0.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
BLS June 2026 Employment Situation lookup for Q2 labor-cost and hours signals
↳ BLS reported June 2026 total nonfarm payroll employment +57,000, unemployment 4.2, average hourly earnings $37.64, average hourly earnings up 3.5 percent over the year, average weekly hours 34.3, and aggregate weekly hours index 116.8 versus 116.6 in April and 116.7 in May.
▸ Reported tool use: mirror.lookupmodel report
FRED/ALFRED PRS85006112 recent history mirror check
↳ FRED/ALFRED PRS85006112 reports Q1 2026 1.8, Q4 2025 2.1, Q3 2025 1.0, Q2 2025 -2.9, and Q1 2025 7.3 for Nonfarm Business Sector: Unit Labor Costs for All Workers, percent change at annual rate, seasonally adjusted.

Reference class and base rate: using the same BLS nonfarm business unit-labor-costs variant, recent revised values from 2021 Q3 through 2026 Q1 average about 2.9 percent annualized, while the last four preliminary first prints before this target average about 1.2 percent but with a shutdown/benchmark-distorted negative Q3 2025. I weight the broader base rate more than the short preliminary sequence because this series is mechanically noisy and revised.

Variant control: all anchors above are nonfarm business sector, seasonally adjusted, percent change from previous quarter at an annual rate. I do not mix in manufacturing, year-over-year, index-level, or final-vintage-only variants for the point forecast.

Prior/update/interval: persistence/base-rate prior is 2.9 from the 2021 Q3-2026 Q1 BLS revised-vintage reference class; no separate AR or time-series model was used beyond this persistence/base-rate anchor. Update components: Q1 revised ULC of 1.8 pulls slightly down, June payroll-hours softness with aggregate weekly hours 116.6 in April, 116.7 in May, and 116.8 in June supports positive productivity but not a boom, and 3.5 percent year-over-year hourly earnings plus recent compensation volatility keep compensation growth near 3.5-4.0. Net update leaves point near 3.0. Interval method uses realized dispersion of same-series quarterly annualized revised-vintage values [8.0, 3.5, 7.2, 3.5, 7.0, -1.7, 2.2, 2.4, 1.2, 1.2, 5.5, 1.1, 1.1, 2.9, 7.3, -2.9, 1.0, 2.1, 1.8]; sample sigma = 3.0, so 80 percent half-width is about 1.28*sigma = 1.28*3.0 = 3.8. Point 3.0 minus/plus 3.8 gives -0.8 to 6.8.

Counter-considerations: upside risk is a compensation-per-hour jump with only modest output growth, which would land above the interval if preliminary hourly compensation prints near 8 percent and productivity is flat or negative. Downside risk is a strong Q2 output/productivity first print combined with subdued compensation, which would land below the interval if productivity exceeds compensation by more than about 1 percentage point annualized.

Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by aligning resolutionSource and resolutionSourceUrl to the ledger-bound ALFRED/FRED PRS85006112 first-print mirror while keeping BLS as the official underlying publication in reasoning; accepted the model-prior critique by stating that no separate AR/time-series model was used; accepted the optional clarification that the interval volatility sample is revised-vintage history.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
+3.0%[-0.8% · +6.8%]
Target metadata

Data point: bls.productivity.nonfarm_unit_labor_costs_qoq_prelim.2026_q2.first_print

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