thesisPrototype

Government data

USFS Minnesota obligations, FY2026

In the first registered-query snapshot after FY2026 close, what will USAspending API v2 search/spending_over_time report as aggregated_amount for prime award transactions filtered to Forest Service awarding subagency, Minnesota place of performance, fiscal_year FY2026, grouped by fiscal_year, not seasonally adjusted, converted to USD millions?

Forecast

$29.5M
$12.3M–$46.7M
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%$-13.5M$29.5M$72.5MForecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval ($12.3M–$46.7M). Dashed line: point estimate ($29.5M).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Observed outcomeoutside 80% interval
actual
$54.572M
forecast
$29.5M with 80% interval [$12.3M, $46.7M]
error
+$25.072M · absolute $25.072M
cdf score
CRPS 17.1 · PIT 0.93
source
usaspending_api USAspending API v2 advanced search, prime award transactions filtered to the Forest Service awarding subagency and Minnesota place of performance, obligations by fiscal year

Registered-query snapshot for 2026 captured from https://api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/search/spending_over_time/ inside the preregistered snapshot window. USAspending revises continuously, so the outcome is the value the pinned query returned on the registered capture date; the full response bytes are archived. Scope is signed net federal_action_obligation across prime award transactions whose awarding subtier is Forest Service and whose reported place of performance has country=USA and state=MN. This is Minnesota-wide spending context only, not Superior National Forest obligations or activity confined to H.R. 978's covered forest lands. No value is attributed to H.R. 978. The series excludes an exact named-land-unit or forest-boundary filter; withdrawal-order status, mine-plan reviews, permits, mineral leases, prospecting permits, preference-right leases, or deadline compliance; all Forest Service financial-account obligations, appropriations, budget authority, and outlays; awards outside Minnesota or without Minnesota as their reported state; and bill-caused spending.

Analysis

§USFS Minnesota place-of-performance obligations, FY2026

Framing: the target is the registered USAspending advanced-search query, not an agency profile total or a news summary. It resolves on the first registered-query snapshot for FY2026 prime award transactions with Forest Service as awarding subtier and Minnesota as place of performance, converted from dollars to usd_millions.

▸ Reported tool use: repository.target_registrationmodel report
Read records/targets/2026-08-11-c9df27cac6ec6a78de1e5b7db1e881dacef14cb4d0f607f328e49f5b8cf836c3.json
↳ Registered slug us-usfs-minnesota-place-of-performance-obligations-fy2026; unit usd_millions; dataPointId usaspending.usfs.minnesota_place_of_performance_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot; expectedReleaseWindow start 2026-10-15 end 2026-10-22; sourceBinding factor 0.000001; FY2025 anchor 46.83255679 usd_millions in docket_series.
▸ Reported tool use: usaspending.contractmodel report
GET https://raw.githubusercontent.com/fedspendingtransparency/usaspending-api/master/usaspending_api/api_contracts/contracts/v2/search/spending_over_time.md
↳ Fetched contract says /api/v2/search/spending_over_time/ is API v2, POST, Response 200, group supports fiscal_year, spending_level supports transactions, and TimeResult has aggregated_amount as a required number.
▸ Reported tool use: usaspending.full_historymodel report
POST https://api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/search/spending_over_time/ once per FY2021-FY2026 with the registered filters and each fiscal-year time_period
↳ Fetched full-year rows: FY2021 aggregated_amount 38291078.07 USD = 38.29107807 usd_millions; FY2022 34095876.20 USD = 34.09587620; FY2023 49958929.09 USD = 49.95892909; FY2024 68717828.09 USD = 68.71782809; FY2025 46832556.79 USD = 46.83255679; FY2026 current same-query row as of run 18026012.00 USD = 18.02601200 but FY2026 is not closed.

Base rate/reference class: the last five completed same-query fiscal-year totals are 38.291, 34.096, 49.959, 68.718, and 46.833 usd_millions; mean 47.579, median 46.833, range 34.096-68.718. The default repeated-series prior is FY2025 persistence at 46.833 usd_millions; persistence walk-forward absolute errors over FY2022-FY2025 are 4.195, 15.863, 18.759, and 21.885 million, MAE 15.176.

▸ Reported tool use: usaspending.same_date_partialsmodel report
POST the same registered filters for Oct. 1-Aug. 12 windows in FY2021-FY2026 and compare with each full FY through Sep. 30
↳ Fetched Aug. 12 partials and final catch-up: FY2021 partial 31.23526709 to full 38.29107807, catch-up 7.05581098; FY2022 partial 20.47003680 to 34.09587620, catch-up 13.62583940; FY2023 partial 29.18312305 to 49.95892909, catch-up 20.77580604; FY2024 partial 60.03895114 to 68.71782809, catch-up 8.67887695; FY2025 partial 35.36103917 to 46.83255679, catch-up 11.47151762; FY2026 partial 18.02601200.
▸ Reported tool use: thesis.slug_checkmodel report
curl -i -sS https://app.thesisinstitute.org/specs.json
↳ Slug check attempt returned HTTP 404 on 2026-08-12 from app.thesisinstitute.org/specs.json; no competing public specs entry was fetched, so I retain the registered catalogSlug from the target contract.

Model candidates (thesis_model_candidate_v1): persistence point 46.833, p10 29.646, p50 46.833, p90 64.019, 80% interval [29.646, 64.019], 90% interval [24.745, 68.920], interval_method annual-value sigma, calibration_n 5, train_cutoff FY2025, walk_forward_mae 15.176; historical-mean candidate point 47.579, p10 30.393, p50 47.579, p90 64.766, 80% interval [30.393, 64.766], 90% interval [25.491, 69.667], interval_method annual-value sigma, calibration_n 5, train_cutoff FY2025; Aug12-catchup candidate point 29.498 = current partial 18.026 + median prior Aug12-to-final catch-up 11.472, p10 12.311, p50 29.498, p90 46.684, 80% interval [12.311, 46.684], 90% interval [7.410, 51.586], interval_method annual-value sigma wrapped around current partial catch-up, calibration_n 5, train_cutoff 2026-08-12.

Prior/update/interval: prior is FY2025 persistence 46.833 from the FY2021-FY2025 completed full-year registered-query sample. Current update is direct same-query FY2026 partial evidence, not part of the completed historical calibration sample: 18.026 by 2026-08-12 versus prior Aug. 12 partials 20.470-60.039 and median historical catch-up 11.472, giving selected point 18.026 + 11.472 = 29.498, rounded to 29.5. Historical sample for interval is FY2021-FY2025 full-year values themselves because this is an annual flow: sigma = 13.427 usd_millions, half-width = 1.28*sigma = 17.186; selected 80% interval = 29.498 +/- 17.186 = [12.311, 46.684], rounded to [12.3, 46.7]. This is a material move below persistence, justified by the direct FY2026 same-query partial and shrunk upward relative to the pure partial-ratio point of 23.874.

Counter-consideration: upside risk outside the interval would come from a large late September obligation batch like FY2023's 20.776 million catch-up plus additional delayed postings that push the registered snapshot above 46.7. Downside risk outside the interval would require unusually little remaining FY2026 Forest Service Minnesota award activity or negative deobligations after 2026-08-12, leaving the registered snapshot below 12.3.

Review disposition: accepted the ordering critique by stating the FY2021-FY2025 completed-series base rate and FY2025 persistence prior before treating the FY2026 partial as current update evidence; also clarified that the FY2026 partial is not part of the completed historical calibration sample.

Key drivers

  • FY2025 persistence benchmark is 46.8 million
  • Annual values are lumpy, with FY2021-FY2025 sigma 13.4 million
  • FY2026 Aug. 12 partial is far below recent same-date partials
  • Typical Aug. 12-to-final catch-up is about 11.5 million

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
USAspending API v2 search/spending_over_time registered query snapshot
Resolved
October 19, 2026
Resolution rule
Resolve from the first registered-query snapshot captured in the Thesis expected release window 2026-10-15 through 2026-10-22, no later than the lab-committed outer bound 2026-10-22. POST to USAspending API v2 search/spending_over_time with group=fiscal_year, spending_level=transactions, award_type_codes 02,03,04,05,06,07,08,09,10,11,A,B,C,D,IDV_A,IDV_B,IDV_B_A,IDV_B_B,IDV_B_C,IDV_C,IDV_D,IDV_E; awarding agency Forest Service subtier under Department of Agriculture; place_of_performance_locations country=USA,state=MN; FY2026 time_period 2025-10-01 through 2026-09-30. Read results[time_period.fiscal_year=2026].aggregated_amount, multiply by 0.000001, and round in usd_millions. Later USAspending revisions after the registered snapshot do not change the first-print value.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · full · v2.5.9

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is publication-ready after a minor ordering cleanup: resolver, unit, registered-query history, update logic, interval math, tails, and JSON coherence are broadly sound.

  • warning base_rate: The draft states the FY2026 partial and same-date catch-up evidence before the base-rate/persistence prior in drivers and reasoning.
  • info optional_suggestion: In the compact Prior/update/interval step, explicitly name the FY2021-FY2025 completed full-year sample before mentioning the FY2026 partial.
  • info optional_suggestion: Clarify that the FY2026 partial is current evidence only, not part of the completed historical calibration sample.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the ordering critique by stating the FY2021-FY2025 completed-series base rate and FY2025 persistence prior before treating the FY2026 partial as current update evidence; also clarified that the FY2026 partial is not part of the completed historical calibration sample.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the ordering critique by stating the FY2021-FY2025 completed-series base rate and FY2025 persistence prior before treating the FY2026 partial as current update evidence; also clarified that the FY2026 partial is not part of the completed historical calibration sample.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the ordering critique by stating the FY2021-FY2025 completed-series base rate and FY2025 persistence prior before treating the FY2026 partial as current update evidence; also clarified that the FY2026 partial is not part of the completed historical calibration sample.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§USFS Minnesota place-of-performance obligations, FY2026

Framing: the target is the registered USAspending advanced-search query, not an agency profile total or a news summary. It resolves on the first registered-query snapshot for FY2026 prime award transactions with Forest Service as awarding subtier and Minnesota as place of performance, converted from dollars to usd_millions.

▸ Reported tool use: repository.target_registrationmodel report
Read records/targets/2026-08-11-c9df27cac6ec6a78de1e5b7db1e881dacef14cb4d0f607f328e49f5b8cf836c3.json
↳ Registered slug us-usfs-minnesota-place-of-performance-obligations-fy2026; unit usd_millions; dataPointId usaspending.usfs.minnesota_place_of_performance_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot; expectedReleaseWindow start 2026-10-15 end 2026-10-22; sourceBinding factor 0.000001; FY2025 anchor 46.83255679 usd_millions in docket_series.
▸ Reported tool use: usaspending.contractmodel report
GET https://raw.githubusercontent.com/fedspendingtransparency/usaspending-api/master/usaspending_api/api_contracts/contracts/v2/search/spending_over_time.md
↳ Fetched contract says /api/v2/search/spending_over_time/ is API v2, POST, Response 200, group supports fiscal_year, spending_level supports transactions, and TimeResult has aggregated_amount as a required number.
▸ Reported tool use: usaspending.full_historymodel report
POST https://api.usaspending.gov/api/v2/search/spending_over_time/ once per FY2021-FY2026 with the registered filters and each fiscal-year time_period
↳ Fetched full-year rows: FY2021 aggregated_amount 38291078.07 USD = 38.29107807 usd_millions; FY2022 34095876.20 USD = 34.09587620; FY2023 49958929.09 USD = 49.95892909; FY2024 68717828.09 USD = 68.71782809; FY2025 46832556.79 USD = 46.83255679; FY2026 current same-query row as of run 18026012.00 USD = 18.02601200 but FY2026 is not closed.

Base rate/reference class: the last five completed same-query fiscal-year totals are 38.291, 34.096, 49.959, 68.718, and 46.833 usd_millions; mean 47.579, median 46.833, range 34.096-68.718. The default repeated-series prior is FY2025 persistence at 46.833 usd_millions; persistence walk-forward absolute errors over FY2022-FY2025 are 4.195, 15.863, 18.759, and 21.885 million, MAE 15.176.

▸ Reported tool use: usaspending.same_date_partialsmodel report
POST the same registered filters for Oct. 1-Aug. 12 windows in FY2021-FY2026 and compare with each full FY through Sep. 30
↳ Fetched Aug. 12 partials and final catch-up: FY2021 partial 31.23526709 to full 38.29107807, catch-up 7.05581098; FY2022 partial 20.47003680 to 34.09587620, catch-up 13.62583940; FY2023 partial 29.18312305 to 49.95892909, catch-up 20.77580604; FY2024 partial 60.03895114 to 68.71782809, catch-up 8.67887695; FY2025 partial 35.36103917 to 46.83255679, catch-up 11.47151762; FY2026 partial 18.02601200.
▸ Reported tool use: thesis.slug_checkmodel report
curl -i -sS https://app.thesisinstitute.org/specs.json
↳ Slug check attempt returned HTTP 404 on 2026-08-12 from app.thesisinstitute.org/specs.json; no competing public specs entry was fetched, so I retain the registered catalogSlug from the target contract.

Model candidates (thesis_model_candidate_v1): persistence point 46.833, p10 29.646, p50 46.833, p90 64.019, 80% interval [29.646, 64.019], 90% interval [24.745, 68.920], interval_method annual-value sigma, calibration_n 5, train_cutoff FY2025, walk_forward_mae 15.176; historical-mean candidate point 47.579, p10 30.393, p50 47.579, p90 64.766, 80% interval [30.393, 64.766], 90% interval [25.491, 69.667], interval_method annual-value sigma, calibration_n 5, train_cutoff FY2025; Aug12-catchup candidate point 29.498 = current partial 18.026 + median prior Aug12-to-final catch-up 11.472, p10 12.311, p50 29.498, p90 46.684, 80% interval [12.311, 46.684], 90% interval [7.410, 51.586], interval_method annual-value sigma wrapped around current partial catch-up, calibration_n 5, train_cutoff 2026-08-12.

Prior/update/interval: prior is FY2025 persistence 46.833 from the FY2021-FY2025 completed full-year registered-query sample. Current update is direct same-query FY2026 partial evidence, not part of the completed historical calibration sample: 18.026 by 2026-08-12 versus prior Aug. 12 partials 20.470-60.039 and median historical catch-up 11.472, giving selected point 18.026 + 11.472 = 29.498, rounded to 29.5. Historical sample for interval is FY2021-FY2025 full-year values themselves because this is an annual flow: sigma = 13.427 usd_millions, half-width = 1.28*sigma = 17.186; selected 80% interval = 29.498 +/- 17.186 = [12.311, 46.684], rounded to [12.3, 46.7]. This is a material move below persistence, justified by the direct FY2026 same-query partial and shrunk upward relative to the pure partial-ratio point of 23.874.

Counter-consideration: upside risk outside the interval would come from a large late September obligation batch like FY2023's 20.776 million catch-up plus additional delayed postings that push the registered snapshot above 46.7. Downside risk outside the interval would require unusually little remaining FY2026 Forest Service Minnesota award activity or negative deobligations after 2026-08-12, leaving the registered snapshot below 12.3.

Review disposition: accepted the ordering critique by stating the FY2021-FY2025 completed-series base rate and FY2025 persistence prior before treating the FY2026 partial as current update evidence; also clarified that the FY2026 partial is not part of the completed historical calibration sample.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
$29.5M[$12.3M · $46.7M]
Target metadata

Data point: usaspending.usfs.minnesota_place_of_performance_obligations.fy2026.registered_query_snapshot

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