thesisPrototype

Government data

US WIC participation, July 2026

What will USDA FNS first report as total national WIC participation for July 2026, measured in millions of persons?

Forecast

6.8M
6.7M–6.8M
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.6-solRun record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%6.7M6.8M6.9MForecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (6.7M–6.8M). Dashed line: point estimate (6.8M).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§July 2026 national WIC participation forecast

The target is the USDA FNS national WIC total-participation series for calendar month July 2026, not enrollment, eligibility, an annual fiscal-year average, or a quality-control release. FNS-798 participation counts people issued benefits during the reporting month. Resolution uses the strict first print from the official WIC monthly table and converts thousands to millions.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Inspect the USDA FNS WIC Data Tables page and its national and state monthly-data listings.
↳ The page lists national monthly WIC data through November 2025 and a preliminary FY2026 state workbook; it was updated February 24, 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Inspect USDA ERS's official WIC participation reference-class summary.
↳ USDA reports average monthly WIC participation of 6.58 million in FY2023 and 6.70 million in FY2024, a 2 percent increase.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Inspect the FNS Program Data Overview for the latest monthly vintage and reporting status.
↳ FNS identifies November 2025 as the latest available month as of February 13, 2026 and warns that current figures are preliminary and subject to revision.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Check the official FNS release-calendar registration for the July 2026 WIC target.
↳ The official schedule places the release in the October 14-22, 2026 window, with October 22, 2026 used as the registered resolution date.

Outside view and base rate: the official reference class rose from 6.58 million in FY2023 to 6.70 million in FY2024 and about 6.765 million in preliminary FY2025 data. Persistence near the latest 6.7-million range is therefore the primary anchor, with only a modest positive trend adjustment.

Level, momentum, one-off, and policy mechanisms: the level anchor is roughly 6.765 million; recent multi-year momentum is positive but slowing; July has no identified national one-off enrollment event; modernization and outreach support participation, while ordinary recertification churn and preliminary state submissions restrain the estimate.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior = 6.765 million, using the official FY2023-FY2025 annual reference class and November 2025 preliminary monthly context; adjustments are +0.020 million for continuing momentum, +0.010 million for outreach/modernization, and -0.005 million for summer churn, giving 6.765 + 0.020 + 0.010 - 0.005 = 6.790 million. An exact monthly successive-change sample was not fetched, so sigma = 0.040 million is an explicit judgmental first-print uncertainty assumption rather than an empirical sample estimate. Applying the promoted normal approximation gives 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.040 = 0.051 million and an 80% interval of 6.790 ± 0.051 = [6.739, 6.841].

Counter-considerations: upside risk from unusually strong retention or outreach could put participation above 6.841 million; downside risk from recertification losses, administrative disruption, or incomplete first-print state reporting could put it below 6.739 million. Either outcome would land outside the interval and falsify the assumed stable regime.

Review disposition: accepted the trace-strength critique by removing the unsupported claim that sigma was calculated from a fetched monthly sample and identifying it as judgmental; also clarified the expected release window and preliminary versus revised historical labels.

Key drivers

  • Recent participation remains near 6.7 million
  • Three-year upward annual trend
  • Summer participation is usually comparatively stable
  • Preliminary state reporting can add first-print noise

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
USDA Food and Nutrition Service WIC Data Tables
Resolution date
October 22, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the first national total-participation value published by USDA FNS for July 2026 in the WIC monthly data table, converting the official count in thousands to millions by multiplying by 0.001. Use the first published value even if FNS later revises it; round the converted result to three decimal places. The registered expected release window is October 14-22, 2026, with October 22 as the resolution date.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.6-sol · fast · v2.2.0

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is broadly publishable, with one trace-strength warning around the interval sample definition.

  • warning prior_update_interval: The interval step says sigma comes from a fetched monthly-history reference class, but it does not name the exact historical monthly sample, date range, or count used to estimate successive-change dispersion.
  • info optional_suggestion: Add the registered expected release window, October 14-22, 2026, alongside the October 22 resolution date.
  • info optional_suggestion: In historicalContext, label whether the FY2025 average and November 2025 value are preliminary or revised vintages.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the trace-strength critique by removing the unsupported claim that sigma was calculated from a fetched monthly sample and identifying it as judgmental; also clarified the expected release window and preliminary versus revised historical labels.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the trace-strength critique by removing the unsupported claim that sigma was calculated from a fetched monthly sample and identifying it as judgmental; also clarified the expected release window and preliminary versus revised historical labels.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the trace-strength critique by removing the unsupported claim that sigma was calculated from a fetched monthly sample and identifying it as judgmental; also clarified the expected release window and preliminary versus revised historical labels.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§July 2026 national WIC participation forecast

The target is the USDA FNS national WIC total-participation series for calendar month July 2026, not enrollment, eligibility, an annual fiscal-year average, or a quality-control release. FNS-798 participation counts people issued benefits during the reporting month. Resolution uses the strict first print from the official WIC monthly table and converts thousands to millions.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Inspect the USDA FNS WIC Data Tables page and its national and state monthly-data listings.
↳ The page lists national monthly WIC data through November 2025 and a preliminary FY2026 state workbook; it was updated February 24, 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Inspect USDA ERS's official WIC participation reference-class summary.
↳ USDA reports average monthly WIC participation of 6.58 million in FY2023 and 6.70 million in FY2024, a 2 percent increase.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Inspect the FNS Program Data Overview for the latest monthly vintage and reporting status.
↳ FNS identifies November 2025 as the latest available month as of February 13, 2026 and warns that current figures are preliminary and subject to revision.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Check the official FNS release-calendar registration for the July 2026 WIC target.
↳ The official schedule places the release in the October 14-22, 2026 window, with October 22, 2026 used as the registered resolution date.

Outside view and base rate: the official reference class rose from 6.58 million in FY2023 to 6.70 million in FY2024 and about 6.765 million in preliminary FY2025 data. Persistence near the latest 6.7-million range is therefore the primary anchor, with only a modest positive trend adjustment.

Level, momentum, one-off, and policy mechanisms: the level anchor is roughly 6.765 million; recent multi-year momentum is positive but slowing; July has no identified national one-off enrollment event; modernization and outreach support participation, while ordinary recertification churn and preliminary state submissions restrain the estimate.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior = 6.765 million, using the official FY2023-FY2025 annual reference class and November 2025 preliminary monthly context; adjustments are +0.020 million for continuing momentum, +0.010 million for outreach/modernization, and -0.005 million for summer churn, giving 6.765 + 0.020 + 0.010 - 0.005 = 6.790 million. An exact monthly successive-change sample was not fetched, so sigma = 0.040 million is an explicit judgmental first-print uncertainty assumption rather than an empirical sample estimate. Applying the promoted normal approximation gives 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.040 = 0.051 million and an 80% interval of 6.790 ± 0.051 = [6.739, 6.841].

Counter-considerations: upside risk from unusually strong retention or outreach could put participation above 6.841 million; downside risk from recertification losses, administrative disruption, or incomplete first-print state reporting could put it below 6.739 million. Either outcome would land outside the interval and falsify the assumed stable regime.

Review disposition: accepted the trace-strength critique by removing the unsupported claim that sigma was calculated from a fetched monthly sample and identifying it as judgmental; also clarified the expected release window and preliminary versus revised historical labels.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
6.8M[6.7M · 6.8M]
Target metadata

Data point: fns.wic.total_participation.2026-07.first_print

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