thesisPrototype

Government data

US WIC Participation, June 2026

What will USDA FNS report as total WIC participation for June 2026, in millions, in the first official print?

Overdue · was due Sep 18, 2026

The resolver has no route for this target's reference. The target was registered with a generic source link rather than a resolver binding.

NO_ROUTE_GENERIC_URL · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

6.8M
6.7M–6.8M
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.6-solRun record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%6.6M6.8M6.9MForecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (6.7M–6.8M). Dashed line: point estimate (6.8M).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§June 2026 WIC participation forecast

The target is national total WIC participants for June 2026, not an annual fiscal-year measure or participant-category subtotal. It resolves from the first official monthly national-level print. The official release calendar schedules this target for 2026-09-18; the ledger window of 2026-09-10 through 2026-09-18 is consistent with that date.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetch the latest USDA FNS WIC monthly national-level table and read total participants for December 2025 through March 2026.
↳ The official table reports 6,712,611 participants in Dec 2025, 6,696,300 in Jan 2026, 6,664,580 in Feb 2026, and 6,701,661 in Mar 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetch same-variant historical March and June national total-participation observations from the official WIC monthly table.
↳ Total participants were 6,621,311 in Mar 2023 and 6,732,424 in Jun 2023; 6,680,974 in Mar 2024 and 6,736,885 in Jun 2024; 6,850,836 in Mar 2025 and 6,883,200 in Jun 2025.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetch the recent FY2026 level transition from the official national monthly WIC table.
↳ Total participation fell from 6,909,938 in Oct 2025 to 6,771,734 in Nov 2025 and 6,712,611 in Dec 2025 before reaching 6,701,661 in Mar 2026.

The reference class is the three prior March-to-June changes in the same official total-participation series: +0.111113 million in 2023, +0.055911 million in 2024, and +0.032364 million in 2025. Their base-rate mean is +0.066463 million.

Level is anchored at March's 6.701661 million. Momentum improved in March by 0.037081 million after four monthly declines, while the one-off October-to-November drop of 0.138204 million and continued lower FY2026 level argue against applying the full seasonal base rate. Policy mechanisms such as eligibility-guideline and food-package changes are unlikely to reverse the level break fully by June.

Prior/update/interval: the persistence-plus-seasonality prior uses the three fetched, horizon-matched March-to-June changes, giving an unadjusted prior of 6.701661 + 0.066463 = 6.768124 million. I apply judgmental shrinkage of 0.018124 million, about 27% of the seasonal increment, because the FY2026 level is lower and the March rebound only partly offsets winter attrition, yielding 6.750000 million. Across the three March-to-June changes, the sample sigma = 0.0404 million; the 80% half-width is approximately 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.0404 = 0.0517 million, rounded to 0.052. This gives 6.750-0.052=6.698 and 6.750+0.052=6.802.

Upside risk comes from a spring enrollment rebound near the 2023 increase and would land above the interval if participation exceeds 6.802 million. Downside risk comes from renewed attrition resembling part of the 0.138204 million October-to-November 2025 drop and would land below the interval if participation falls under 6.698 million. These are concrete outside-the-interval scenarios.

Review disposition: Accepted the agency-name correction, replaced the inconsistent monthly-change count with a horizon-matched March-to-June dispersion estimate, and specified the adjustment as judgmental shrinkage with its magnitude and basis. Also clarified the ledger unit conversion and strengthened the downside scenario.

Key drivers

  • recent March rebound after winter declines
  • typical March-to-June seasonal increase
  • lower FY2026 participation level than FY2025
  • preliminary reporting volatility

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
Official agency release
Resolution date
September 18, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the total participants value for June 2026 in the first official USDA FNS WIC monthly national-level table published on the WIC Data Tables page. Apply the ledger conversion from thousands of participants to millions by multiplying by 0.001. Use that first print without incorporating later revisions or corrections, and round only the resolved millions value to six decimal places.
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.6-sol · v2.2.0

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is mostly publication-ready, but the interval-method description has a concrete sample-count inconsistency and the inside-view adjustment needs a more explicit basis.

  • blocking interval: The interval says it uses 13 successive monthly changes from Mar 2025 through Mar 2026, but that endpoint span implies 12 month-to-month changes; it also does not explain why one-month volatility is appropriate for a March-to-June target.
  • warning update: The -0.018124 million momentum/policy-level adjustment is directionally justified but numerically under-specified.
  • warning resolver: The question text says USDA FNA, while the canonical agency/source is USDA FNS.
  • info optional_suggestion: State the implied prior before adjustment as 6.768124 million to make the update step easier to audit.
  • info optional_suggestion: Mention that the unit conversion is from participants in thousands to millions under the ledger transform factor 0.001.
  • info optional_suggestion: Consider adding one concrete downside example tied to the late-2025 monthly drop magnitude rather than only naming renewed attrition.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: Accepted the agency-name correction, replaced the inconsistent monthly-change count with a horizon-matched March-to-June dispersion estimate, and specified the adjustment as judgmental shrinkage with its magnitude and basis. Also clarified the ledger unit conversion and strengthened the downside scenario.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: Accepted the agency-name correction, replaced the inconsistent monthly-change count with a horizon-matched March-to-June dispersion estimate, and specified the adjustment as judgmental shrinkage with its magnitude and basis. Also clarified the ledger unit conversion and strengthened the downside scenario.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: Accepted the agency-name correction, replaced the inconsistent monthly-change count with a horizon-matched March-to-June dispersion estimate, and specified the adjustment as judgmental shrinkage with its magnitude and basis. Also clarified the ledger unit conversion and strengthened the downside scenario.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: Accepted the agency-name correction, replaced the inconsistent monthly-change count with a horizon-matched March-to-June dispersion estimate, and specified the adjustment as judgmental shrinkage with its magnitude and basis. Also clarified the ledger unit conversion and strengthened the downside scenario.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: Accepted the agency-name correction, replaced the inconsistent monthly-change count with a horizon-matched March-to-June dispersion estimate, and specified the adjustment as judgmental shrinkage with its magnitude and basis. Also clarified the ledger unit conversion and strengthened the downside scenario.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: Accepted the agency-name correction, replaced the inconsistent monthly-change count with a horizon-matched March-to-June dispersion estimate, and specified the adjustment as judgmental shrinkage with its magnitude and basis. Also clarified the ledger unit conversion and strengthened the downside scenario.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§June 2026 WIC participation forecast

The target is national total WIC participants for June 2026, not an annual fiscal-year measure or participant-category subtotal. It resolves from the first official monthly national-level print. The official release calendar schedules this target for 2026-09-18; the ledger window of 2026-09-10 through 2026-09-18 is consistent with that date.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetch the latest USDA FNS WIC monthly national-level table and read total participants for December 2025 through March 2026.
↳ The official table reports 6,712,611 participants in Dec 2025, 6,696,300 in Jan 2026, 6,664,580 in Feb 2026, and 6,701,661 in Mar 2026.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetch same-variant historical March and June national total-participation observations from the official WIC monthly table.
↳ Total participants were 6,621,311 in Mar 2023 and 6,732,424 in Jun 2023; 6,680,974 in Mar 2024 and 6,736,885 in Jun 2024; 6,850,836 in Mar 2025 and 6,883,200 in Jun 2025.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetch the recent FY2026 level transition from the official national monthly WIC table.
↳ Total participation fell from 6,909,938 in Oct 2025 to 6,771,734 in Nov 2025 and 6,712,611 in Dec 2025 before reaching 6,701,661 in Mar 2026.

The reference class is the three prior March-to-June changes in the same official total-participation series: +0.111113 million in 2023, +0.055911 million in 2024, and +0.032364 million in 2025. Their base-rate mean is +0.066463 million.

Level is anchored at March's 6.701661 million. Momentum improved in March by 0.037081 million after four monthly declines, while the one-off October-to-November drop of 0.138204 million and continued lower FY2026 level argue against applying the full seasonal base rate. Policy mechanisms such as eligibility-guideline and food-package changes are unlikely to reverse the level break fully by June.

Prior/update/interval: the persistence-plus-seasonality prior uses the three fetched, horizon-matched March-to-June changes, giving an unadjusted prior of 6.701661 + 0.066463 = 6.768124 million. I apply judgmental shrinkage of 0.018124 million, about 27% of the seasonal increment, because the FY2026 level is lower and the March rebound only partly offsets winter attrition, yielding 6.750000 million. Across the three March-to-June changes, the sample sigma = 0.0404 million; the 80% half-width is approximately 1.28*sigma = 1.28*0.0404 = 0.0517 million, rounded to 0.052. This gives 6.750-0.052=6.698 and 6.750+0.052=6.802.

Upside risk comes from a spring enrollment rebound near the 2023 increase and would land above the interval if participation exceeds 6.802 million. Downside risk comes from renewed attrition resembling part of the 0.138204 million October-to-November 2025 drop and would land below the interval if participation falls under 6.698 million. These are concrete outside-the-interval scenarios.

Review disposition: Accepted the agency-name correction, replaced the inconsistent monthly-change count with a horizon-matched March-to-June dispersion estimate, and specified the adjustment as judgmental shrinkage with its magnitude and basis. Also clarified the ledger unit conversion and strengthened the downside scenario.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
6.8M[6.7M · 6.8M]
Target metadata

Data point: fns.wic.total_participation.2026-06.first_print

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