thesisPrototype

Government data

US WIC participation, May 2026

USDA FNS WIC Program total participants for May 2026, national total, not seasonally adjusted, first official print

Overdue · was due Aug 14, 2026

The resolver has no route for this target's reference. The target was registered with a generic source link rather than a resolver binding.

NO_ROUTE_GENERIC_URL · resolver status as of Oct 7, 2026

Forecast

7M
6.8M–7.1M
80% prediction interval
gpt-5.5Run record ↗

Cumulative probability

Chance that the outcome is at or below each value.

0%25%50%75%100%6.6M7M7.3MForecast value

Shaded band: 80% interval (6.8M–7.1M). Dashed line: point estimate (7M).

Derived from the point estimate and 80% interval; the agent did not report a full distribution.

Analysis

§USDA FNS WIC total participation, May 2026 first print

Framing and exact resolver: this is the USDA FNS WIC national Total Participants series for May 2026, not seasonally adjusted, resolved on the first official print from the WIC monthly program-data tables. The FNS WIC page is the exact series page; the target is a first-print value, so later revisions are excluded.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened USDA FNS WIC Data Tables page and identified the monthly national and latest-month WIC data resources.
↳ The FNS WIC page lists Monthly Data - National Level through November 2025, and the linked monthly table reports May 2025 Total Participants of 6,894,610 and FY2025 annual Total Participants of 6,866,095.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched the FNS WIC monthly national PDF for annual and monthly totals through FY2026-to-date.
↳ The monthly national PDF reports FY2025 annual Total Participants 6,866,095, FY2024 6,704,329, FY2023 6,575,977, May 2023 6,696,739, May 2024 6,763,710, May 2025 6,894,610, Oct 2025 6,909,050, and Nov 2025 6,752,138.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched the FNS latest-month participation PDF to check the first-available/recent-release format.
↳ The latest-month PDF reports TOTAL participation of 6,829,321 for November 2024, 6,909,050 for October 2025 preliminary, and 6,752,138 for November 2025 initial, a -2.3% monthly change and -1.1% year-over-year change.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the official FNS program-data release calendar for the May 2026 WIC monthly release date.
↳ The FNS program-data release calendar gives the May 2026 WIC monthly program-data release date as 2026-08-14, within the registered expected release window 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-15.

Base rate/reference class: for the same WIC total-participation variant, the three fetched May observations were 6.696739 million in 2023, 6.763710 million in 2024, and 6.894610 million in 2025. The three historical November-to-May moves were +0.300006 million from Nov 2022 to May 2023, +0.139673 million from Nov 2023 to May 2024, and +0.065289 million from Nov 2024 to May 2025.

Level and momentum: the clean May-to-May trend points upward, with May 2025 above May 2024 by 0.130900 million and May 2024 above May 2023 by 0.066971 million. The latest initial November 2025 level is unusually low relative to October 2025, so I discount a pure Nov 2025 persistence forecast and treat part of the drop as reporting/timing or temporary churn risk rather than a permanent level shift.

Policy and mechanism: WIC participation is driven by categorical eligibility, income eligibility, state administration, births/young-child caseload, and take-up. I do not see a May 2026 core-program policy change in the fetched official tables; proposed FY2027 benefit changes would begin after this May target, so they are not a direct level cut for this observation.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior uses the historical Nov-to-May reference class from fetched FNS monthly totals: changes were 0.300006, 0.139673, and 0.065289 million, average = 0.168323, so Nov 2025 initial 6.752138 + 0.168323 = 6.920461 million. May-trend prior uses May 2025 plus average of the two May-to-May gains: 6.894610 + ((0.066971 + 0.130900)/2) = 6.993546 million. I weight the persistence prior about 45% and the May-trend prior about 55%, then apply a small caution for the weak Nov 2025 first print, giving 6.960 million. Horizon-matched dispersion from the three Nov-to-May changes gives sigma = 0.119953 million; 1.28*sigma = 0.1535 million, rounded to 0.154. The three-observation volatility sample is thin, so this 80% interval is approximate, but it remains tied to the realized same-series dispersion: 6.960 - 0.154 = 6.806 and 6.960 + 0.154 = 7.114 million.

Counter-considerations: upside risk is a rebound from the depressed November 2025 initial count plus stronger child caseload growth, which would land above the interval if May first print exceeds 7.114 million. Downside risk is a persistent administrative or funding disruption carrying through spring 2026, or a genuine caseload drop rather than a temporary November print, which would land below the interval if May first print is under 6.806 million. Outside the interval would therefore require either a larger-than-historical spring rebound or a continuation of the November 2025 shock.

Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by making the operational conversion unambiguous for whole-person FNS table values while preserving the ledger factor note; accepted the source-date critique by removing the inconsistent date from the latest-month evidence summary; also accepted the optional interval-sample and weighting clarifications.

Key drivers

  • Recent FNS first-available total fell sharply in November 2025 versus October 2025
  • May participation has been above the preceding November in the last three fetched fiscal-year histories
  • FY2025 annual average participation was higher than FY2024 and FY2023
  • No core FY2026 WIC eligibility or benefit mechanism points to a May 2026 collapse before the FY2027 budget year

Tool evidence

This run has no captured tool responses. “Reported tool use” in the analysis is the model’s account, not an archived tool response.

Sources and resolution

Official source
Official agency release
Resolution date
August 14, 2026· outcome not recorded
Resolution rule
Resolve to the national WIC Total Participants value for May 2026 in the first official USDA FNS WIC monthly program-data posting or latest-month table that first includes May 2026. The expected displayed FNS monthly table value is a whole participant count, as in 6,894,610 for May 2025; convert that displayed person count to millions by dividing by 1,000,000 and round to 0.001 million for the cell. If the ledger adapter instead extracts an intermediate value expressed in thousands of participants, its listed factor 0.001 produces the same final unit of millions. Use the first posted May 2026 value only; ignore later preliminary/final revisions or annual-summary revisions.

Forecast history

Select a version to read its estimate and analysis.

Forecast versions, estimates, and intervals
VersionDateEstimate80% interval
gpt-5.6-lunaJul 10, 20267M6.8M–7.1M
gpt-5.6-terraJul 10, 20266.8M6.8M–7M
gpt-5.6-solJul 10, 20266.8M6.7M–6.9M
gpt-5.5Jul 10, 20266.8M6.6M–7M
gpt-5.6-solJul 10, 20266.8M6.7M–6.8M
gpt-5.6-solJul 10, 20266.7M6.7M–6.8M
gpt-5.6-solJul 10, 20266.9M6.9M–7M
gpt-5.6-solJul 10, 20266.9M6.8M–6.9M
gpt-5.5Jul 10, 20266.8M6.7M–6.8M
gpt-5.5Jul 10, 20266.8M6.7M–7M
gpt-5.5Jul 10, 20266.8M6.7M–6.9M
gpt-5.5Jul 10, 20266.9M6.7M–7M
gpt-5.6-terraJul 10, 20267M6.9M–7.1M
gpt-5.6-terraJul 10, 20266.8M6.7M–6.8M
gpt-5.6-terraJul 10, 20267M6.9M–7M
gpt-5.5 · selectedJul 10, 20267M6.8M–7.1M
Run details

The analysis is the model’s written report. Tool-use descriptions in that report are model claims; the activity artifacts contain the execution record.

thesis.analyst · gpt-5.5 · v2.2.0

pre-submit review · completed

Draft is publishable after small clarity fixes on unit conversion and one inconsistent source-date statement; the quantitative prior/update/interval structure is otherwise coherent.

  • warning resolver: The resolver text says divide person counts by 1,000,000 while also noting the ledger transform factor is 0.001, creating apparent ambiguity about whether the official table value is persons or thousands of persons.
  • warning update: The evidence note says the latest-month PDF is dated February 13, 2025 while reporting October/November 2025 values, which is internally inconsistent.
  • info optional_suggestion: State explicitly that the three-observation volatility sample is thin and the 80% interval is approximate.
  • info optional_suggestion: Name the final weighting between the Nov-to-May persistence prior and May-trend prior rather than saying only that they were weighted to 6.960.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by making the operational conversion unambiguous for whole-person FNS table values while preserving the ledger factor note; accepted the source-date critique by removing the inconsistent date from the latest-month evidence summary; also accepted the optional interval-sample and weighting clarifications.

disposition accepted: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by making the operational conversion unambiguous for whole-person FNS table values while preserving the ledger factor note; accepted the source-date critique by removing the inconsistent date from the latest-month evidence summary; also accepted the optional interval-sample and weighting clarifications.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by making the operational conversion unambiguous for whole-person FNS table values while preserving the ledger factor note; accepted the source-date critique by removing the inconsistent date from the latest-month evidence summary; also accepted the optional interval-sample and weighting clarifications.

disposition not applicable: Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by making the operational conversion unambiguous for whole-person FNS table values while preserving the ledger factor note; accepted the source-date critique by removing the inconsistent date from the latest-month evidence summary; also accepted the optional interval-sample and weighting clarifications.

Activity artifacts

Complete original trace

§USDA FNS WIC total participation, May 2026 first print

Framing and exact resolver: this is the USDA FNS WIC national Total Participants series for May 2026, not seasonally adjusted, resolved on the first official print from the WIC monthly program-data tables. The FNS WIC page is the exact series page; the target is a first-print value, so later revisions are excluded.

▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Opened USDA FNS WIC Data Tables page and identified the monthly national and latest-month WIC data resources.
↳ The FNS WIC page lists Monthly Data - National Level through November 2025, and the linked monthly table reports May 2025 Total Participants of 6,894,610 and FY2025 annual Total Participants of 6,866,095.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched the FNS WIC monthly national PDF for annual and monthly totals through FY2026-to-date.
↳ The monthly national PDF reports FY2025 annual Total Participants 6,866,095, FY2024 6,704,329, FY2023 6,575,977, May 2023 6,696,739, May 2024 6,763,710, May 2025 6,894,610, Oct 2025 6,909,050, and Nov 2025 6,752,138.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Fetched the FNS latest-month participation PDF to check the first-available/recent-release format.
↳ The latest-month PDF reports TOTAL participation of 6,829,321 for November 2024, 6,909,050 for October 2025 preliminary, and 6,752,138 for November 2025 initial, a -2.3% monthly change and -1.1% year-over-year change.
▸ Reported tool use: official.lookupmodel report
Checked the official FNS program-data release calendar for the May 2026 WIC monthly release date.
↳ The FNS program-data release calendar gives the May 2026 WIC monthly program-data release date as 2026-08-14, within the registered expected release window 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-15.

Base rate/reference class: for the same WIC total-participation variant, the three fetched May observations were 6.696739 million in 2023, 6.763710 million in 2024, and 6.894610 million in 2025. The three historical November-to-May moves were +0.300006 million from Nov 2022 to May 2023, +0.139673 million from Nov 2023 to May 2024, and +0.065289 million from Nov 2024 to May 2025.

Level and momentum: the clean May-to-May trend points upward, with May 2025 above May 2024 by 0.130900 million and May 2024 above May 2023 by 0.066971 million. The latest initial November 2025 level is unusually low relative to October 2025, so I discount a pure Nov 2025 persistence forecast and treat part of the drop as reporting/timing or temporary churn risk rather than a permanent level shift.

Policy and mechanism: WIC participation is driven by categorical eligibility, income eligibility, state administration, births/young-child caseload, and take-up. I do not see a May 2026 core-program policy change in the fetched official tables; proposed FY2027 benefit changes would begin after this May target, so they are not a direct level cut for this observation.

Prior/update/interval: persistence prior uses the historical Nov-to-May reference class from fetched FNS monthly totals: changes were 0.300006, 0.139673, and 0.065289 million, average = 0.168323, so Nov 2025 initial 6.752138 + 0.168323 = 6.920461 million. May-trend prior uses May 2025 plus average of the two May-to-May gains: 6.894610 + ((0.066971 + 0.130900)/2) = 6.993546 million. I weight the persistence prior about 45% and the May-trend prior about 55%, then apply a small caution for the weak Nov 2025 first print, giving 6.960 million. Horizon-matched dispersion from the three Nov-to-May changes gives sigma = 0.119953 million; 1.28*sigma = 0.1535 million, rounded to 0.154. The three-observation volatility sample is thin, so this 80% interval is approximate, but it remains tied to the realized same-series dispersion: 6.960 - 0.154 = 6.806 and 6.960 + 0.154 = 7.114 million.

Counter-considerations: upside risk is a rebound from the depressed November 2025 initial count plus stronger child caseload growth, which would land above the interval if May first print exceeds 7.114 million. Downside risk is a persistent administrative or funding disruption carrying through spring 2026, or a genuine caseload drop rather than a temporary November print, which would land below the interval if May first print is under 6.806 million. Outside the interval would therefore require either a larger-than-historical spring rebound or a continuation of the November 2025 shock.

Review disposition: accepted the resolver critique by making the operational conversion unambiguous for whole-person FNS table values while preserving the ledger factor note; accepted the source-date critique by removing the inconsistent date from the latest-month evidence summary; also accepted the optional interval-sample and weighting clarifications.

calibrated forecast · 80% CI
7M[6.8M · 7.1M]
Target metadata

Data point: fns.wic.total_participation.2026-05.first_print

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