Bank of England Bank Rate after the 18 June 2026 MPC decision

Reference class: G7 central banks with inflation above target and explicitly rising. The base rate for a hold (no cut) is very high in such regimes; cuts essentially never occur while a central bank is publicly forecasting further inflation increases. Among hold-vs-hike, recent BoE meetings resolved to hold.

Decompose the outcome distribution: P(hold 3.75) ~ 0.93, P(hike to 4.00) ~ 0.06, P(cut to 3.50) ~ 0.01. Expected value 3.75 + 0.06*0.25 - 0.01*0.25 ~ 3.7625, which rounds to the modal 3.75. The 80% interval contains only the modal value at its low end; the high end 4.00 captures the hawkish tail within the upper 20% mass envelope.

With inflation rising toward/through 3.3% and the BoE signalling 'higher later this year', the Committee is in a hold-and-watch posture; a cut contradicts its own guidance, and a hike would be a notable hawkish surprise given two recent holds. Modal outcome: unchanged at 3.75%.

Lands outside a point-3.75 expectation only if the energy shock plus a hot May CPI (released 17 June, the day before) pushes a majority to hike to 4.00% — the realistic upside tail and the reason ciHigh is 4.00 rather than 3.75. A cut to 3.50 is essentially ruled out by the Bank's own 'higher later this year' language.

The resolver is the first official Bank of England June 2026 MPC Monetary Policy Summary page. Because Bank Rate is a policy decision level, the target is the rate after the announcement, not a later revised statistical series.

Base-rate/reference-class step: the last three MPC meetings all held at 3.75%, and the most recent vote distribution shifted from February cut dissents to March unanimous hold to April one hike dissent, so the modal reference case for the next meeting is another hold at 3.75%.

Counter-consideration: upside inflation and energy-price risks make a 4.00% hike plausible, while weak activity and a loosening labour market keep a 3.50% cut in the broader 80% set; both alternatives are less likely than a hold two days before the scheduled release.

Use the BoE's usual 0.25 percentage-point policy grid. Point estimate is the modal hold, 3.75. For an 80% interval, include the adjacent cut and hike outcomes around the modal decision: ciLow = 3.50, point = 3.75, ciHigh = 4.00.