Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.

Official poverty rate, 2025

What will the official U.S. poverty rate be for calendar year 2025 as published by the U.S. Census Bureau?

current forecast · 80% CI10.4%

9.8%10.4%11.1%

history:2021: 11.6%2022: 11.5%2023: 11.1%2024: 10.6%

Trend

history + forecast

historyforecast path80% interval

static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value

recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →

record: prototype seed
agent: prototype seed
distribution: 3 runs · 201 CDF points each
ledger fact: census.official_poverty_rate.2025

Forecast runs

same target · agents, packs, updates

runs

agents

models

pack sets

Pack visualizer

3 packs

selected pack

Base-rate-first

method

Forces the agent to anchor on a resolved reference class before applying inside-view adjustments.

Open pack page →

version: 0.1.0
pack id: base-rate-first
pack set: Census official-poverty pack set
agents: brier-1.packed
used by: Brier-1 · Census cash-income packs

Headline

prototype seedunreported modelseed

unreported

9.56%80% 9.8% to 11.1%11.54%

public trace

Cash-income target

The official poverty measure excludes taxes, refundable credits, and noncash benefits, so it is a cleaner near-term read on cash-income and labor-market strength than SPM.

census.lookup census.lookup({ report: "Poverty in the United States", series: "official_poverty_rate", years: [2021, 2024] })

result { y2021: 11.6, y2022: 11.5, y2023: 11.1, y2024: 10.6 }

policyengine.simulate policyengine.simulate({ policy: "current_law", year: 2025, output: "official_poverty_rate", map_to: "person", income_definition: "cash_income" })

result { point: 10.5, ci80: [9.9, 11.0], drivers: ["earnings", "social_security_income", "threshold_indexation"] }

Forecast

The central path continues the 2023-2024 improvement but slows it. A recession would have shown more clearly in the 2025 labor market by now, so the upper tail is moderate rather than extreme.

forecast 10.4% · 80% [9.8%, 11.1%]

10.4%

-0.2%

Control · cash trend

brier-1.controlgpt-5.4Jun 14, 2026

No-pack ablation using only the official poverty history and broad labor-market direction.

No packs

9.56%80% 9.7% to 11.4%11.54%

public trace

Control run

Without packs, this run extrapolates the 2021-2024 official poverty trend and checks whether labor-market deterioration is large enough to reverse the decline.

census.lookup census.lookup({ report: "Poverty in the United States", series: "official_poverty_rate", years: [2021, 2024] })

result { y2021: 11.6, y2022: 11.5, y2023: 11.1, y2024: 10.6 }

Control trend holds the 2024 rate at 10.6 with a mild downward labor-income adjustment offset by threshold growth.

The interval is wider because the control does not model cash-income composition or ASEC release noise explicitly.

forecast 10.6% · 80% [9.7%, 11.4%]

10.6%

baseline

Brier-1 · Census cash-income packs

brier-1.packedgpt-5.4Jun 14, 2026

Pack-enabled run that bridges PolicyEngine cash income to the Census official poverty release.

Census official-poverty pack set

9.56%80% 9.7% to 11.0%11.54%

public trace

Pack-enabled run

brier.pack.apply brier.pack.apply({ packs: ["base-rate-first@0.1.0", "cash-income-bridge@0.1.0", "asec-release-calibration@0.1.0"], target: "census.official_poverty_rate.2025" })

result { admitted: 3, mode: "with_packs", required_checks: ["reference_class", "cash_income_bridge", "asec_release_error"] }

policyengine.simulate policyengine.simulate({ policy: "current_law", year: 2025, output: "official_poverty_rate", map_to: "person", income_definition: "cash_income" })

result { point: 10.5, ci80: [9.9, 11.0], drivers: ["earnings", "social_security_income", "threshold_indexation"] }

Packed estimate = 10.6 base rate - 0.2pp labor-income improvement - 0.1pp cash-income bridge adjustment = 10.3.

The packs pull the center slightly below the no-pack trend and narrow the high side because the official measure excludes noncash benefit volatility.

forecast 10.3% · 80% [9.7%, 11.0%]

10.3%

-0.3%

Key drivers

Pretax cash income growth
Employment and hours worked
Household composition
CPI-U poverty-threshold indexation

Resolution

source: U.S. Census Bureau, Poverty in the United States: 2025
expected: September 15, 2026
rule: Resolves to the official poverty rate for all people in calendar year 2025 in the Census Poverty in the United States report, expected in September 2026. This uses the official poverty measure, not the Supplemental Poverty Measure.
Data point: census.official_poverty_rate.2025

Analyst agent · reasoning trace

static mock

Static mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.

recorded trace replay

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▸ recorded source check: census.lookuphidden

▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden

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The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.

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