Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Official poverty rate, 2025
What will the official U.S. poverty rate be for calendar year 2025 as published by the U.S. Census Bureau?
current forecast · 80% CI10.4%
9.8%10.4%11.1%
history:2021: 11.6%2022: 11.5%2023: 11.1%2024: 10.6%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- census.official_poverty_rate.2025
Key drivers
- Pretax cash income growth
- Employment and hours worked
- Household composition
- CPI-U poverty-threshold indexation
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Census Bureau, Poverty in the United States: 2025
- expected
- September 15, 2026
- rule
- Resolves to the official poverty rate for all people in calendar year 2025 in the Census Poverty in the United States report, expected in September 2026. This uses the official poverty measure, not the Supplemental Poverty Measure.
- Data point
- census.official_poverty_rate.2025
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: census.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
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The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.