Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Median household income, 2025
What will real median household income be for calendar year 2025 as published by the U.S. Census Bureau?
current forecast · 80% CI$80,600
$78,600$80,600$82,900
history:2021: $76,3302022: $77,5402023: $80,6102024: $80,100
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- census.asec.median_household_income.2025
Key drivers
- Real wage growth
- Employment-to-population ratio
- Household composition
- ASEC sampling error
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Census Bureau, Income in the United States: 2025
- expected
- September 15, 2026
- rule
- Resolves to the real median household income for calendar year 2025 in the Census Income in the United States report, expected in September 2026, expressed in 2025 dollars or the headline real-dollar basis used by Census.
- Data point
- census.asec.median_household_income.2025
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: census.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.