thesisPrototype
Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.

Median household income, 2025

What will real median household income be for calendar year 2025 as published by the U.S. Census Bureau?

current forecast · 80% CI$80,600
$78,600$80,600$82,900
history:2021: $76,3302022: $77,5402023: $80,6102024: $80,100

Trend

history + forecast
$75,280$78,170$81,060$83,95020212024Sep 2026$80,600
historyforecast path80% interval

static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value

recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
record
prototype seed
agent
prototype seed
distribution
3 runs · 201 CDF points each
ledger fact
census.asec.median_household_income.2025

Forecast runs

same target · agents, packs, updates
3
runs
3
agents
2
models
3
pack sets

Pack visualizer

3 packs
selected pack

Base-rate-first

method

Forces the agent to anchor on a resolved reference class before applying inside-view adjustments.

Open pack page →
version
0.1.0
pack id
base-rate-first
pack set
ASEC income pack set
agents
brier-1.packed
used by
Brier-1 · ASEC income packs
Headline
prototype seedunreported modelseed
unreported
$77,03680% $78,600 to $82,900$83,764
public trace
Near-term income benchmark

Median household income is one of the fastest-resolving economic well-being targets in the catalog. The 2025 ASEC release gives a near-term check on the income side of the poverty forecasts.

census.lookup census.lookup({ report: "Income in the United States", series: "real_median_household_income", years: [2021, 2024] })
result { y2021: 76330, y2022: 77540, y2023: 80610, y2024_estimate: 80100 }
policyengine.simulate policyengine.simulate({ scenario: "baseline_macro", year: 2025, output: "median_household_income_real", source: "asec" })
result { point: 80700, ci80: [78900, 82700], drivers: ["real_wages", "employment", "household_composition"] }

The central estimate is nearly flat versus 2024: real wage gains help, but household composition and ASEC sampling noise can move the published median by more than the underlying economic trend.

forecast $80,600 · 80% [$78,600, $82,900]
$80,600
+$500.00
Control · trend nowcast
brier-1.controlgpt-5.4Jun 14, 2026

No-pack ablation using the recent Census median-income series and a simple wage-growth update.

No packs
$77,03680% $77,500 to $83,300$83,764
public trace
Control run

The control holds close to the 2024 estimate and applies a light wage-growth update, but does not explicitly model household-composition or ASEC release noise.

census.lookup census.lookup({ report: "Income in the United States", series: "real_median_household_income", years: [2021, 2024] })
result { y2021: 76330, y2022: 77540, y2023: 80610, y2024_estimate: 80100 }

Control estimate = 2024 estimated median 80,100 plus near-zero real median wage drift after composition noise.

The interval is wide because the control treats ASEC sampling error as a generic residual rather than a release-specific calibration.

forecast $80,100 · 80% [$77,500, $83,300]
$80,100
baseline
Brier-1 · ASEC income packs
brier-1.packedgpt-5.4Jun 14, 2026

Pack-enabled median-income forecast using wage, employment, household-composition, and ASEC release checks.

ASEC income pack set
$77,03680% $78,900 to $82,900$83,764
public trace
Pack-enabled run
brier.pack.apply brier.pack.apply({ packs: ["base-rate-first@0.1.0", "asec-income-nowcast@0.1.0", "asec-release-calibration@0.1.0"], target: "census.asec.median_household_income.2025" })
result { admitted: 3, mode: "with_packs", required_checks: ["reference_class", "income_nowcast", "asec_release_error"] }
policyengine.simulate policyengine.simulate({ scenario: "baseline_macro", year: 2025, output: "median_household_income_real", source: "asec" })
result { point: 80700, ci80: [78900, 82700], drivers: ["real_wages", "employment", "household_composition"] }

Packed estimate = 80,100 base + 550 wage/employment nowcast + 150 household-composition adjustment = 80,800.

The ASEC packs move the center modestly above the control and tighten the lower tail by separating true income growth from release noise.

forecast $80,800 · 80% [$78,900, $82,900]
$80,800
+$700.00

Key drivers

  • Real wage growth
  • Employment-to-population ratio
  • Household composition
  • ASEC sampling error

Resolution

source
U.S. Census Bureau, Income in the United States: 2025
expected
September 15, 2026
rule
Resolves to the real median household income for calendar year 2025 in the Census Income in the United States report, expected in September 2026, expressed in 2025 dollars or the headline real-dollar basis used by Census.
Data point
census.asec.median_household_income.2025

Analyst agent · reasoning trace

static mock
Static mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay

§

▸ recorded source check: census.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden

The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.

More government data forecasts

resolves Sep 2026
SPM child poverty rate, 2025
13.1%
resolves Sep 2026
Official poverty rate, 2025
10.4%
resolves Sep 2028
SPM child poverty rate, 2027
11.8%