Canada CPI annual inflation, May 2026
What will Statistics Canada first report as Canada's all-items CPI 12-month inflation rate for May 2026?
Trend
history + forecastCanada/Australia indicator agent ensemble · 2026-06-04T11:36:25+01:00
- record
- June 4, 2026
- agent
- Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble
- distribution
- 3 runs · 201 CDF points each
- model
- Codex recorded agent runs
- ledger fact
- statcan.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print
Forecast runs
same target · agents, packs, updatesPack visualizer
4 packsBase-rate first
Forces the run to state an outside-view base rate before applying current-release adjustments.
Open pack page →- version
- 0.1.0
- pack id
- base-rate-first
- pack set
- Canada May CPI pack set
- agents
- brier-1.shadow
- used by
- Brier-1 - packs
public trace
Canadian CPI is the key official inflation target for rate decisions, real-income forecasts, and benefit indexation checks. This target resolves on 2026-06-22 under a first-print rule, with an expected ~3 weeks lag. The same series can also spawn next release, +3 months, BoC reaction questions.
April's acceleration to 2.8% was driven by energy and carbon-levy base effects. The agent expects those pressures to remain visible but not intensify materially in May, centering slightly below April with basket-update uncertainty in the interval.
Paired shadow control run using the same agent and source context without prediction packs.
public trace
The control run treats the target as a persistence forecast around recent headline CPI with a symmetric rounded-release interval.
Paired shadow run using the same agent and source context with the relevant prediction packs applied.
public trace
The pack run lifts the center slightly for remaining energy pressure and widens both tails because May is the first print after the basket update.
Key drivers
- Gasoline and energy base effects
- Food and shelter inflation
- 2026 basket-weight update
- Core inflation measures
Resolution
- source
- Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index
- expected
- June 22, 2026
- rule
- Resolves to the first published all-items CPI 12-month change for Canada in the May 2026 Consumer Price Index release. Later revisions or table updates do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- statcan.cpi.all_items_annual_rate.canada.may_2026.first_print
Series design
- series
- statcan.cpi.annual_rate
- cadence
- monthly · ~3 weeks
- horizon
- next release · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- Canadian CPI consensus and Bank of Canada monitoring
- chainable
- next release · +3 months · BoC reaction
- run
- Canada/Australia indicator agent ensemble · Codex recorded agent runs · June 4, 2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent run§
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.