Retail sales, May 2026 month-over-month
What will the advance seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in U.S. retail and food services sales be for May 2026?
Trend
history + forecaststatic prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
- actual
- +0.9%
- forecast
- +0.2% with 80% CI [-0.5%, +0.9%]
- error
- +0.7% · absolute +0.7%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.42 · PIT 0.90
- source
- census Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, May 2026
Census advance estimates reported retail and food services sales were up 0.9% in May 2026 from April 2026.
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 3 runs · 201 CDF points each
- ledger fact
- census.marts.adv44x72.may_2026.monthly_change.advance
Forecast runs
same target · agents, packs, updatesPack visualizer
3 packsBase-rate first
Forces the run to state an outside-view base rate before applying current-release adjustments.
Open pack page →- version
- 0.1.0
- pack id
- base-rate-first
- pack set
- May retail sales pack set
- agents
- brier-1.packed
- used by
- Brier-1 - spending packs
public trace
Retail sales add a high-frequency demand-side series to the launch set and produce many derivable questions from one source. This target resolves on 2026-06-17 under a first-print rule, with an expected ~2 weeks lag. The same series can also spawn next release, control group, threshold questions.
March and April nominal retail sales were strong, but the forecast centers below April's pace because some momentum should fade and gasoline receipts can drag the headline. Advance retail sales remain volatile, so the 80% interval spans a small decline through a near-1% gain.
Control run using recent advance retail-sales momentum and generic release volatility.
public trace
The control starts from the strong March and April advance retail prints, then fades momentum toward the recent nominal retail mean without separating autos, gasoline, or control-group demand.
Headline fade = 0.35 * April momentum + 0.65 * recent monthly mean = about +0.1%.
Pack-enabled run using consumer-spending nowcast and release-vintage checks.
public trace
The pack keeps the headline retail fade but adds back some support from control-group and auto-sales momentum while treating gasoline receipts as a volatile channel rather than a broad demand signal.
Key drivers
- Auto sales
- Gasoline station receipts
- Card-spending nowcasts
- Control-group momentum
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey
- resolved
- June 17, 2026
- actual
- +0.9%
- rule
- Resolves to the first advance estimate of the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in total retail and food services sales for May 2026. Use the rounded headline value; if only levels are available, compute from Census adv44X72 seasonally adjusted levels in the same release and round to one decimal. Later revisions do not change the resolved value.
- Data point
- census.marts.adv44x72.may_2026.monthly_change.advance
Series design
- series
- census.marts.retail_food_services_mom
- cadence
- monthly · ~2 weeks
- horizon
- next release · first print
- priority
- P0
- benchmark
- Published consensus survey medians
- chainable
- next release · control group · threshold
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mock§
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.