Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US industrial production, May 2026, month-over-month % change
What will the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in the U.S. Industrial Production index be for May 2026, as reported in the first Federal Reserve G.17 release on 2026-06-15?
current forecast · 80% CI+0.1%
-0.5%+0.1%+0.7%
history:2025-11 MoM: -0.2%2025-12 MoM: +0.5%2026-01 MoM: -0.1%2026-02 MoM: +0.6%2026-03 MoM: -0.3%2026-04 MoM: +0.7%Trailing 24-mo mean MoM: +0.1%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
thesis.analyst · 2026-06-12T18:32:08Z
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- +0.1%
- forecast
- +0.1% with 80% CI [-0.5%, +0.7%]
- error
- 0.0% · absolute +0.0%
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.13 · PIT 0.50
- source
- fed Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17
Federal Reserve G.17 reported total industrial production rose 0.1% in May 2026.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- June 12, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- claude-fable-5
- ledger fact
- us.frb.industrial_production.total.mom_sa.2026-05
Key drivers
- IP has alternated sign almost every month recently (Dec +0.48, Jan -0.05, Feb +0.62, Mar -0.29, Apr +0.68), so an April-up suggests a flat-to-soft May.
- Trailing 24-month average MoM is only +0.09%, consistent with a roughly flat manufacturing trend.
- Utilities output (weather-sensitive) and mining swings add noise around the manufacturing core.
- Manufacturing PMI/new-orders momentum sets the underlying drift.
- Motor-vehicle assemblies are a recurring single-month swing factor.
Resolution
- source
- Federal Reserve Board, G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
- resolved
- June 15, 2026
- actual
- +0.1%
- rule
- Resolves to the total Industrial Production index seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change for May 2026, as printed in the first G.17 release on 2026-06-15 at 9:15 AM ET, rounded to one decimal place. FRED series INDPRO (first vintage).
- Data point
- us.frb.industrial_production.total.mom_sa.2026-05
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: fed.calendarhidden
▸ recorded source check: fred.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: fred.statshidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.