Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
SPM child poverty rate, 2027
What will the Supplemental Poverty Measure child poverty rate be for calendar year 2027 as published by the U.S. Census Bureau?
current forecast · 80% CI11.8%
10.5%11.8%13.4%
history:2021: 5.2%2022: 12.4%2023: 13.7%2024: 13.4%2025e: 12.9%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2027
Key drivers
- TCJA extension status (CTC, EITC)
- Unemployment trajectory
- SNAP benefit levels
- Refundable credit phase-ins
Resolution
- source
- U.S. Census Bureau, SPM annual release
- expected
- September 15, 2028
- rule
- Resolves to the official SPM child poverty rate (children under 18) published in the Census Poverty in the United States report covering CY2027.
- Data point
- census.spm.child_poverty_rate.2027
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
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▸ recorded source check: cbo.lookuphidden
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The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.