thesisPrototype
modelprediction pack · v0.1.0

CPI component decomposition

Separates shelter, services ex-shelter, core goods, food, and energy before recombining to headline CPI-U.

8
runs
7
targets
2
agents
1
versions

Purpose

Force headline CPI-U forecasts through interpretable component channels instead of a single aggregate extrapolation.

Mechanism

  • Split headline CPI-U into shelter, services ex-shelter, core goods, food, and energy channels.
  • Apply component-specific priors and current-source adjustments.
  • Recombine components into the annual-average headline forecast.

Checks

  • Major CPI components are named in the reasoning trace.
  • The run explains the component that drives the central estimate.
  • The final interval reflects component-level upside and downside risk.

Inputs

  • BLS CPI-U history
  • Supplemental CPI component tables
  • External inflation baselines when available

Limitations

  • Prototype weights are coarse and should be replaced with official CPI relative-importance tables.
  • Component paths remain judgmental until a formal time-series model is attached.

Versions

v0.1.0cpi-component-decomposition@0.1.08 runs

Runs using this pack

Australia May CPI pack set, CPI annual-average pack set, Canada May CPI pack set, June core CPI pack set, June monthly CPI pack set
CPI-U annual average inflation, 2026
brier-1.packedJun 12, 2026Brier-1 · CPI packs · Jun 12
pack_set.cpi_annual_2026.v1pack-enabled
2.6%
+0.1% vs no-pack

Earlier packed run before the June 14 refresh; same agent and pack set, older source context.

80% interval 2.0% to 3.4%
CPI-U annual average inflation, 2026
brier-1.packedJun 14, 2026Brier-1 · CPI packs
pack_set.cpi_annual_2026.v1pack-enabled
2.7%
+0.2% vs no-pack

June 14 refresh with the base-rate, component decomposition, and tariff pass-through packs enabled.

80% interval 2.1% to 3.4%
CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA)
brier-1.packedJun 15, 2026Brier-1 - CPI energy packs
pack_set.cpi_monthly_june_2026.v1pack-enabled
+0.5%
+0.1% vs no-pack

Pack-enabled headline CPI run with energy nowcast, component decomposition, and tariff tail checks.

80% interval +0.1% to 0.8%
Core CPI month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA)
brier-1.packedJun 15, 2026Brier-1 - core CPI packs
pack_set.core_cpi_monthly_june_2026.v1pack-enabled
+0.3%
+0.0% vs no-pack

Pack-enabled core CPI run using component checks and tariff pass-through tails.

80% interval +0.1% to 0.5%
Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026
brier-1.shadowJun 20, 2026Brier-1 - packs
pack_set.canada_cpi_may_2026.v1pack-enabled
2.7%
+0.1% vs no-pack

Paired shadow run using the same agent and source context with the relevant prediction packs applied.

80% interval 2.1% to 3.4%
Canada CPI annual inflation, May 2026
brier-1.shadowJun 20, 2026Brier-1 - packs
pack_set.canada_cpi_may_2026.v1pack-enabled
2.7%
+0.1% vs no-pack

Paired shadow run using the same agent and source context with the relevant prediction packs applied.

80% interval 2.1% to 3.3%
Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026
brier-1.shadowJun 20, 2026Brier-1 - packs
pack_set.australia_cpi_may_2026.v1pack-enabled
4.6%
+0.4% vs no-pack

Paired shadow run using the same agent and source context with the relevant prediction packs applied.

80% interval 3.8% to 5.4%