thesisPrototype
dataprediction pack · v0.1.0

Energy price nowcast

Tracks gasoline, crude oil, utilities, and PPI energy signals that move headline inflation before core components react.

5
runs
5
targets
2
agents
1
versions

Purpose

Capture short-horizon energy movements that can dominate headline inflation releases.

Mechanism

  • Track gasoline, crude oil, utilities, and PPI energy signals.
  • Translate energy movement into headline CPI pressure separately from core components.
  • Keep central energy adjustments separate from tail-risk widening.

Checks

  • The run identifies the energy channel separately from core inflation.
  • The trace explains whether energy is decelerating, accelerating, or reversing.
  • The interval reflects upside and downside energy tails explicitly.

Inputs

  • Gasoline and crude price signals
  • BLS CPI energy component history
  • PPI energy and pipeline-price signals

Limitations

  • Does not include daily station-level gasoline microdata.
  • Energy pass-through to non-energy components remains judgmental.

Versions

v0.1.0energy-price-nowcast@0.1.05 runs

Runs using this pack

Australia May CPI pack set, Canada May CPI pack set, June monthly CPI pack set
CPI-U month-over-month, June 2026 (first print, SA)
brier-1.packedJun 15, 2026Brier-1 - CPI energy packs
pack_set.cpi_monthly_june_2026.v1pack-enabled
+0.5%
+0.1% vs no-pack

Pack-enabled headline CPI run with energy nowcast, component decomposition, and tariff tail checks.

80% interval +0.1% to 0.8%
Canada CPI all-items year-over-year inflation, May 2026
brier-1.shadowJun 20, 2026Brier-1 - packs
pack_set.canada_cpi_may_2026.v1pack-enabled
2.7%
+0.1% vs no-pack

Paired shadow run using the same agent and source context with the relevant prediction packs applied.

80% interval 2.1% to 3.4%
Canada CPI annual inflation, May 2026
brier-1.shadowJun 20, 2026Brier-1 - packs
pack_set.canada_cpi_may_2026.v1pack-enabled
2.7%
+0.1% vs no-pack

Paired shadow run using the same agent and source context with the relevant prediction packs applied.

80% interval 2.1% to 3.3%
Australia CPI annual inflation, May 2026
brier-1.shadowJun 20, 2026Brier-1 - packs
pack_set.australia_cpi_may_2026.v1pack-enabled
4.6%
+0.4% vs no-pack

Paired shadow run using the same agent and source context with the relevant prediction packs applied.

80% interval 3.8% to 5.4%