UK unemployment rate, Oct-Dec 2026

The UK labour market is currently one of the clearest stress points: unemployment is up, payroll employment is falling, and wage growth remains central to Bank of England decisions. This target resolves on 2027-02-16 under a first-print rule, with an expected ~2 weeks lag. The same series can also spawn next release, quarterly path, claimant threshold questions.

This mirrors the Manifold-style Q4 target: a one-decimal ONS LFS unemployment rate for October-December 2026. The agent keeps the central path near 5.1%, consistent with a labour market that weakens through mid-2026 but stabilizes rather than deteriorating sharply by year-end.

Framing: the target is ONS Labour market statistics time series MGSX, Unemployment rate aged 16 and over, seasonally adjusted, percent, for October to December 2026, resolving on the first print and rounded to one decimal.

Base rate: among the last 24 fetched quarterly MGSX rates, mean 4.400, median 4.3, population std 0.464, sample std 0.474, 10th percentile 3.830, 90th percentile 5.000, range 3.7 to 5.3. Quarter-on-quarter changes had mean +0.039pp, std 0.295pp, 10th percentile -0.280pp, 90th percentile +0.300pp, range -0.4pp to +0.9pp.

Three-quarter-ahead changes over the fetched window had mean +0.038pp, sample std 0.507pp, 10th percentile -0.700pp, and 90th percentile +0.600pp. Point estimate = 0.50*persistence 5.0 + 0.25*last-4-quarter mean 4.85 + 0.25*last-24 mean 4.40 + inside-view 0.50pp for the 2025 upward drift and three-quarter horizon = 5.113, rounded to 5.1. The 80% interval starts from realized 3-quarter movement around the point: 5.1-0.7=4.4 and 5.1+0.6=5.7, then widens the upper tail by 0.2pp for LFS volatility, yielding [4.4, 5.9].

Counter-consideration: the outcome falls below 4.4 if labour demand re-accelerates and the 2025 unemployment rise unwinds quickly; it exceeds 5.9 if payroll weakness turns into a recessionary hiring stop or LFS volatility prints another sharp unemployment jump.