ConditionalOutcome forecast conditional on a policy state.
Uninsured rate (under 65) 2028 | ACA enhanced subsidies expire
Conditional on the ACA enhanced premium tax credits (ARPA/IRA expansion) expiring as scheduled at end of 2025 and not being restored through 2028, what will the uninsured rate (under 65) be in calendar year 2028?
conditional on: Enhanced ACA premium tax credits remain expired through end of 2028
current forecast · 80% CI11.3%
10.2%11.3%12.4%
history:2021: 9.6%2022: 8.6%2023: 8.0%2024: 8.2%2025e: 8.9%2026e (cond.): 10.4%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- census.asec.uninsured_rate_under_65.2028
Key drivers
- Marketplace coverage attrition trajectory
- Medicaid take-up among newly-priced-out
- ESI coverage churn
Resolution
- source
- Census ASEC health insurance report
- expected
- September 15, 2029
- rule
- Resolves to the uninsured rate among people under 65 as reported by the Census ASEC for calendar year 2028, conditional on no restoration of the enhanced ACA premium tax credits (above the original ACA-baseline subsidies) through 2028. If subsidies are restored at any point, the forecast cell is marked unresolved.
- Data point
- census.asec.uninsured_rate_under_65.2028
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
▸ recorded source check: cbo.lookuphidden
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▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
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The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.