ConditionalOutcome forecast conditional on a policy state.
SNAP payment error rate FY 2026 | cost-share provision in effect
Conditional on the 2025 reconciliation law's SNAP state cost-share provision remaining in effect — no statutory repeal or delay enacted by June 30, 2027 — what will the national SNAP payment error rate be for fiscal year 2026?
conditional on: SNAP state cost-share provision in effect (no repeal or delay enacted) through 2027-06-30
current forecast · 80% CI9.4%
8.2%9.4%10.7%
history:FY 2023: 11.68%FY 2024: 10.93%FY 2025e: 10.2%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2026.cost_share_in_effect
Key drivers
- First full fiscal year measured under enacted cost-share exposure
- State corrective-action and QC staffing investment
- FY 2026 rates feed the first state match calculations
- Repeal or delay politics as states feel the exposure
Resolution
- source
- USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2026
- expected
- June 30, 2027
- rule
- Resolves to the national combined SNAP payment error rate for fiscal year 2026 in the official FNS QC release (first print, expected around June 2027), conditional on the event 'no federal statute enacted on or before 2027-06-30 repeals or delays the SNAP state cost-share provisions of the 2025 reconciliation law.' If the conditioning event fails, the cell is marked unresolved. The conditioning event is a policy state, checkable against the federal bill tracker.
- Data point
- fns.snap.total_payment_error_rate.us.fy2026.cost_share_in_effect
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: ledger.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: fns.lookuphidden
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The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.