ConditionalOutcome forecast conditional on a policy state.
Infant mortality 2026 | current-law CTC
Conditional on no materially equivalent $3,000 fully refundable Child Tax Credit being in effect for tax year 2026, what will the U.S. infant mortality rate be for calendar year 2026?
conditional on: No materially equivalent $3,000 fully refundable Child Tax Credit in effect for TY2026
current forecast · 80% CI5.50 per 1,000
5.34 per 1,0005.50 per 1,0005.72 per 1,000
history:2019: 5.58 per 1,0002020: 5.42 per 1,0002021: 5.44 per 1,0002022: 5.60 per 1,0002023: 5.60 per 1,0002024: 5.53 per 1,000
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- cdc.nchs.nvss.infant_mortality_rate.2026.current_law.final
Key drivers
- Recent NVSS infant mortality plateau
- Maternal health and preterm birth trends
- Medicaid postpartum coverage and prenatal care access
- No large refundable CTC income shock
Resolution
- source
- CDC/NCHS National Vital Statistics System linked birth/infant death records
- expected
- December 15, 2028
- rule
- Resolves to the final U.S. infant mortality rate for calendar year 2026, in infant deaths per 1,000 live births, from CDC/NCHS NVSS linked birth/infant death records, conditional on no materially equivalent $3,000 fully refundable Child Tax Credit being in effect for TY2026. If such a policy is in effect, this baseline scenario is marked unresolved.
- Data point
- cdc.nchs.nvss.infant_mortality_rate.2026.current_law.final
- Policy parameter
- irc.24.current_law.2026
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: nchs.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.