ConditionalOutcome forecast conditional on a policy state.
US CRP enrolled acres, Sep 2027, no FY2027-31 ceiling
What will USDA FSA Conservation Reserve Program Statistics, CRP Monthly Summary, TOTAL CRP row, Acres column report for total enrolled acres for September 2027, not seasonally adjusted administrative total, on the first print, conditional on no farm bill enacted by 2027-09-30 setting a CRP acreage ceiling for fiscal years 2027 through 2031?
conditional on: No farm bill enacted by 2027-09-30 sets a CRP acreage ceiling for fiscal years 2027 through 2031; current law holds.
current forecast · 80% CI26,182,019
25,198,51626,182,01927,165,522
history:September 2024: 24,601,888September 2025: 25,766,115October 2025: 26,316,110November 2025: 26,317,011December 2025: 26,279,615January 2026: 26,255,016February 2026: 26,231,997March 2026: 26,203,615April 2026: 26,182,019
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-08-15T15:30:28Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- August 15, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- usda.fsa.crp.enrolled_acres_total.2027_09.first_print.no_fy2027_31_ceiling_source_recovered_2026_08_13
Key drivers
- April 2026 parser-backed latest print at 26,182,019 acres
- No direct fetched evidence for moving away from persistence
- Large 2024-09 to 2025-09 increase widens horizon uncertainty
- Recent monthly prints drifted down after October 2025
- No FY2027-31 ceiling condition limits policy-specific adjustment
Resolution
- source
- USDA Farm Service Agency, Conservation Reserve Program Statistics, CRP Monthly Summary
- expected
- December 31, 2027
- rule
- Resolve from the first USDA FSA Conservation Reserve Program Statistics CRP Monthly Summary for September 2027, TOTAL CRP row, Acres column, reported as whole acres. Use the first print only; later corrections or revisions do not change the resolved value. The resolution date is the Thesis registered resolve-by bound 2027-12-31, not a scheduled release day. The conditional resolves only if no farm bill enacted by 2027-09-30 sets a CRP acreage ceiling for fiscal years 2027 through 2031 and current law holds; if that condition fails, mark this cell unresolved.
- Data point
- usda.fsa.crp.enrolled_acres_total.2027_09.first_print.no_fy2027_31_ceiling_source_recovered_2026_08_13
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: thesis_announcement_fetch.fetch_official_announcementhidden
▸ recorded source check: resolve_pending.fsa_crp_fetch_periodhidden
▸ recorded source check: resolve_pending.fsa_crp_fetch_periodhidden
▸ recorded source check: resolve_pending.fsa_crp_fetch_periodhidden
▸ recorded source check: curl uscode.house.govhidden
▸ recorded source check: scripts/run_time_series_models.pyhidden
▸ recorded source check: curl app.thesisinstitute.org/specs.jsonhidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.