U.S. federal monthly deficit, June 2026 (MTS)

June is a structurally low-deficit month because quarterly estimated taxes arrive ~June 15. Excluding the 2020-2021 pandemic, the last six Junes (2018,2019,2022,2023,2024,2025) ranged from a $228B deficit to a $27B surplus, mean ~ -$73B deficit, median ~ -$71B deficit (sign converted: deficit positive ~ +71 to +73).

FY2026 is running better than FY2025: cumulative deficit ~9% ($118B) lower through May, receipts +$174B YoY (CRFB). Since Jun2025 was already a +$27B surplus, a similarly strong receipts month in Jun2026 argues for an outcome near balance to a small deficit, modestly worse than 2025 only if outlays (interest/entitlements, +$56B YoY) dominate.

Base rate for the deficit-positive figure: recent Junes cluster ~ -$30B (surplus) to +$230B (deficit), with most mass in the +$0B to +$90B deficit range once pandemic years are dropped. The unconditional centre is a small-to-moderate deficit; a surplus (like 2025) is plausible but not modal across the full sample.

June-to-June dispersion (ex-pandemic) is large: the six clean Junes have a population stdev of roughly $80-90B around their mean. Calendar shifts (benefit-payment timing when month-ends fall on weekends) routinely move a single month by $50-100B, so the 80% band must be wide (~+/-$110-130B).

Outside [-90, +170] if: (a) a benefit-payment calendar shift or weak quarterly receipts produces a large deficit >$170B (cf. Jun2023 +$228B); or (b) an exceptionally strong receipts month plus tariff revenue yields a surplus larger than ~$90B. The Middle East shock is roughly fiscal-neutral month-to-month here.

Anchor on the ex-pandemic June mean (~+$73B deficit) but shade toward near-balance given FY2026's stronger receipts and the 2025 surplus precedent -> point +$25B deficit. 80% CI = +25 +/- ~$120-130B, slightly asymmetric (surpluses bounded near -$90B, deficit tail to +$170B) -> [-90, 170].

Resolver is the first official Bureau of the Fiscal Service Monthly Treasury Statement print for June 2026, using the monthly deficit/surplus in Table 1 and treating deficits as positive USD billions.

Base-rate step: the most relevant reference class is recent June MTS prints because June contains quarterly estimated tax payments and has strong seasonality. The recent June deficits of 27, 66, and 228 billion imply a wide but positive-deficit center; the two most recent years point closer to 50 billion than to the 2023 outlier.

I start with a recent-June base of about (27 + 66) / 2 = 46.5 billion, add roughly 20 billion for higher interest and entitlement outlays, add 10 billion for tariff-refund and policy noise, and round to a 72 billion point. The 80% interval is set wide at -35 to 210 billion to cover a possible June surplus from strong receipts and a 2023-like high-deficit outlier if payment timing or refunds raise outlays.

Counter-consideration: elevated tariff receipts and June tax collections could produce a small surplus, especially if refunds are not concentrated in June, which is why the lower bound is negative despite the point being a deficit.

Resolver: use the first official U.S. Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement for June 2026, Table 1 total deficit/surplus, converted from $ millions to $ billions, with deficits positive and surpluses negative.

Base-rate: recent June deficits are volatile because corporate tax collections and payment-date shifts matter. The 2022-2025 June outcomes were 88.842, 227.768, 65.965, and -27.010 billion, giving a simple four-year average near 88.9 billion and a three-year average near 88.2 billion, but the 2024 and 2025 June figures were held down by June 1 weekend payment acceleration into May.

Counter-consideration: if June receipts remain strong and tariff revenues are not fully offset by refunds, the deficit could land near the low end or even close to balance; however, June 1, 2026 is a Monday, so the payment-shift suppression visible in 2024 and 2025 should not repeat.

Start from a recent-June base rate around 90 billion. Add roughly 55 billion for normal June benefit and Medicare/HHS payments not shifted into May, add about 25 billion for higher interest and entitlement growth, and subtract about 15 billion for still-elevated customs/tariff receipts net of refunds: 90 + 55 + 25 - 15 = 155 billion. Set an 80% interval of 20 to 310 billion to cover tax-payment and refund volatility.