Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
ACA premium tax credit outlays, FY2027
What will federal ACA premium tax credit outlays be in fiscal year 2027, in nominal dollars?
current forecast · 80% CI$94B
$62B$94B$132B
history:FY2021: $60BFY2023: $82BFY2025e: $105BFY2026e: $112B
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- treasury.mts.aca_premium_tax_credit_outlays.fy2027
Key drivers
- Enhanced subsidy extension status
- Marketplace enrollment
- Benchmark-premium growth
- Income reconciliation at filing
Resolution
- source
- Monthly Treasury Statement and CBO baseline tables
- expected
- November 30, 2027
- rule
- Resolves to federal outlays for refundable premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official Treasury or CBO table that separately identifies the credit.
- Data point
- treasury.mts.aca_premium_tax_credit_outlays.fy2027
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
▸ recorded source check: policyengine.simulatehidden
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.